Saturday 31st March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 31st March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 31, 2018 10:58 am

Well that was a great start to the flat season, but now I’ve got to live up to that – no easy task, especially today when I’ve only been able to take a curtailed look at things. Very much a fingers crossed day!

Musselburgh 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (108) 14f gd/sf – 14 Run

Last year – 647 (105) gd/fm 13 ran
Carbon Dating 12/1 5-9-7 (101) Dr 7 by 1.5l from Maleficent Queen 11/1 5-9-8 (102) Dr 5
Sir Chauvelin 25/1 5-8-13 (93) Dr 13 was 3.77l 6th

Time To Study 4-9-2 (102) Dr 4
27 Oct Cl 2 3yo Stks (123d) 13.5f sf Newb (102) 15/8 2.25l 1/3 off 102
Made all, joined over 3f out, ridden 2f out, quickened and forged ahead 1f out, ran on well and in command inside final furlong
Won half his turf starts to date including a Cl 2 on gd/sf at Doncaster in September; found the Cesarewitch a little beyond him on his next start, but closed out the season with an all the way win at Newbury; starts the season off the same mark and can go well fresh.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: 155-day break;
Verdict: (48) stable runners in good form and ticks most boxes, so a contender.
American Gigolo 6-8-7 (91) Dr 2
20 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 16.5f AW Nwcs (96) 5/2 0.25l 1/6 off 88
Made all, joined over 3f out, ridden 2f out, quickened and forged ahead 1f out, ran on well and in command inside final furlong
Has had an excellent winter on the AW since joining this stable and having a wind op in November, winning the last 3 of his 4 AW starts, the latest a Cl 2 at Newcastle; this will be his first turf start on the flat, although he has won over hurdles; another who loves to be up with the pace, but is up 3lbs for his latest win.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (11 days); career best lto;
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (45) rapid improvement on the flat and may have more to give yet, a contender
Sir Chauvelin 6-9-0 (98) Dr 8
23 Nov Cl 2 Hcap (162 d) 12.5f Nwcs (96) 4/1 1l 1/7 off 95
Held up, switched right and headway to lead over 1f out, ridden out inside final furlong
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 6th to Carbon Dating (+8) in last year’s renewal, but has by far the better of the form of late, following his AW in November with a win over hurdles here on New Year’s Day, although not as clever off his higher mark last month; however, stable not in the best of form of late.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto;
Minus: up 3lbs;
Verdict: (39) should be fit enough, but would need a career best to overturn last year’s running off 6lbs worse terms; not the strongest contender perhaps.
Mixboy 8-8-7 (91) Dr 11
13 Feb Cl 3 Hcap (97 d) 16.5f AW South (88) 7/1 1l 2/7 off 88
Tracked leader, close up and took keen hold halfway, led over 6f out, ridden over 2f out, joined and driven over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, no extra last 100yds
Versatile sort having won on the flat, over hurdles and over fences; latest success was over fences here in January and wasn’t disgraced when putting in a career best at Southwell the following month over 16.5f on the flat, perhaps suggesting that the drop back to today’s trip will suit.
Plus: distance (F); trainer (C); form run lto (46); career best lto;
Minus: class; going (?); course (?); up in class; up 3lbs; current trainer form (1/23);
Verdict: (34) versatile enough, but yet to prove it at this level in any sphere and not perhaps the strongest contender today.

Last year’s winner Carbon Dating hasn’t shown much in the Arabian Gulf this winter and despite running off 1lb lower mark this year is not expected to repeat. Brandon Castle had a good spell on similar ground last summer, but will likely need a run or two to get himself back into form. One that could go well at a price is Mount Tahan who won over 12f when raised to that trip for the first time at Wolverhampton at the start of the month and was staying on well at the finish that day. Night Of Glory should be fit from hurdling, but his best form has been on more demanding ground than today. Thus I’ll stick with my quartet, of which Mixboy and Sir Chauvelin have the most to prove. So not being very original, I have to think that Sir Gigolo qand Time To Study have the best chances and they’re preferred in that order with perhaps Mixboy claiming the minor placing.

Kempton 16.20 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (101) 11f AW – 14 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 280 (102) 14 ran
Big Country 4/1 F 308-6 (84) Dr 9 by 1.5l from Wild Hacked 13/2 4-9-5 (97) Dr 5

Kelly’s Dino 5-8-2 (82) Dr 1
21 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 11f AW Kemp (100) 3/1 F 0.75l 2/9 off 81
Came across from wide drawn and hampered rivals, soon led, headed 6f, ridden along and led over 1f out, headed 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
Won first 2 AW starts after the turn of the year and has run well in 2 subsequent starts, recording yet another career best lto when raised to this level over C&D; has been raised 1lb for that, but likely more to come and is better drawn today off his light weight.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (38 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (41) fast improving sort and has to be a contender off bottom weight.
Fire Fighting 7-9-2 (96) Dr 12
23 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (120 d) 12f AW Ling (95) 4/ 1 0.25l 1/6 off 94
Held up, pushed along 4f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, to lead post
Hadn’t won since July 2016 but made the most of his falling mark to just get up at Lingfield last week; raised 3lbs for that, but despite winning here this is not his best course, plus as 7yo is flying in the face of tradition in a race that usually goes to 4/5yos; add to that the wide draw and he’s hardly favourite.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: up 2lbs; drawn 12; age
Verdict: Alongside the pluses there are negatives too and not the strongest contender.
Emenem 4-9-0 (94) Dr 9
27 Feb Cl 3 Hcap (72 d) 10f AW Ling (97) 15/8 0.75l 2/5 off 93
Tracked leader, ridden to challenge 2f out, driven and narrow lead final furlong, headed last 50yds
In good enough form and credible enough effort in setting a career best over 10f at Lingfield last month on first run since being gelded; has been raised 1lb for that and is up in class today, plus has yet to prove he stays today’s trip – got trapped wide on previous attempt here.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (32 days); career best lto;
Minus: up in class; up 1lb; up 1f;
Verdict: (37) best considered a contender with questions from stall 9 here.
Arab Moon 4-8-13 (93) Dr 11
Far better on AW than turf and won on his return here last season, although that was a Cl 6; runner-up in a Cl 3 here over C&D here last September off 90 and closed off the season with a disappointing turf run when raised to this level for the first time; while that can be ignored, he has yet to win above Cl 4 and starts this season off a 3lbs higher mark than September.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: class; no win above Cl 4; 169-day break;
Verdict: (36) lots of pluses with course form, but question about ability at this level, yet a contender nonetheless.

Sadly not the race it once was back when Kempton was a turf track, but a race in which 4 and 5yos have dominated in recent years. For that reason, among others, I shall pass on Fire Fighting. None of my other three are completely clear of questions, but I’m tempted to go with the improving Kelly’s Dino with perhaps Emenem edging out the popular Aran Moon.

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