Saturday 7th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 7th April

Postby Devasteve » Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:10 am

Not the best of cards this week, but we’ll give it a go and hope to get luckier than last week!

Kempton 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (95) 5f AW – 10 Run (9 at best)

Last year – 118 (101) 6 ran
A Momentofmadness 7/4 F 4-8-6 (86) Dr 1 by 0.75l from Robot Boy 2/1 7-9-7 (101) Dr 4

Tomily 4-9-7 (104) Dr 4
31 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 6f AW Kemp (102) 6/1 0.25l 1/6 off 102
Held up in 5th, dashed to inner 2f out and swift progress, led just over 1f out, ridden out and held on
Has been in fine form of late and recorded a career best last weekend when winning over 6f here; raised 2lbs for that, but drop back to 5f no problem.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (55) in fine form, gets on well with his rider, and should go close on hat-trick attempt, a contender.
Tarboosh 5-9-0 (92) Dr 5
30 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 5f hv Hayd (99) 12/1 0.27l 3/14 off 91
Tracked leaders, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden clear entering final furlong, driven last 100yds, headed and no extra near line
Did well last season winning 4/8 over 5f on turf and seeing his mark rise 16lbs; starts this season off 1lb higher and possibly better on turf than AW; stable not in the best of form of late either (1/29).
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: 189-day break; up 1lb; trainer (14d) (1/29)
Verdict: (41) may be better on turf than AW and not the strongest contender on his return.
A Momentofmadness 5-8-12 (95) Dr 3
24 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (120 d) 5f AW Ling (108) 2/1 F 0.6l 3/6 off 95
Not well away, soon tracking leaders, ridden and switched right well over 1f out, stayed on
Runs off a 9lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal and made a positive return from a winter’s rest when 3rd to Tomily (+4) despite not being well away; meets the winner on 5lbs better terms for less than 1l and strictly on the book should reverse that running.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (38) has to be considered a contender to repeat last year’s success.
Jumira Bridge 4-9-0 (97) Dr 2
Won his first 2 races last season although failed to maintain that early promise despite being gelded in mid-season; has joined the Cowell yard between seasons and makes his AW debut today with Crowley in the saddle.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d);
Minus: AW debut; course (?); 172-day break;
Verdict: (38) can go well fresh, and from jockey bookings stable’s first string; a potential contender.
Evergate 4-8-12 (95) Dr 8
Stable companion of Jamira Bridge and ran well on a number of occasions on turf last season; just a pair of runner-up spots on his 2 AW runs, so may well take to the surface; career best on final start at Ascot last October and starts this campaign off a 3lbs higher mark; presumably the stable’s second string but not to be ignored as has finished runner-up on both his season debuts to date.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 1lb; 182-day break;
Verdict: (37) has to be given as good a chance as his stable companion on form to date and thus a potential contender.

Early season sprint madness, although I’ll pass on Tarboosh on the AW I think. The pair of Cowell horses, meanwhile, Jumira Bridge and Evergate, could well take a hand but I prefer to look at those with current form and maybe perversely, take Tomily to confirm Lingfield running with A Momentofmadness with Evergate edging out his more favoured stable companion for third.

Kempton 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (102) 6f AW – 8 Run

Last year – 118 (100) 10 ran
Solar Flair 4/1 5-9-7 (100) Dr 10 by 0.02l from Stellarta 110/1 6-8-13 (92) Dr 3

Tropics 10-9-7 (102) Dr 7
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d) form run lto (23 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) back in good form on the AW of late winning 3 of 5 since mid-December; however, better in Cl 3 nowadays and latest raise may weight him out of this.
Raven’s Lady 4-8-9 (90) Dr 8
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down 5lbs;
Minus: 93-day break; down in trip;
Verdict: (42) runner- up over 7f at Wolverhampton in January and may be better on turf than AW; however, lowered mark and dropped in trip so a possible contender.
Boundsy 4-8-9 (89) Dr 3
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: 161-day break; trainer (C) (1/85)
Verdict: (41) useful sprinter over 5f and 6f on turf last season and narrowly beaten on only AW start at Newcastle; trainer’s course record a worry, but a contender nonetheless.

Not much time to look at this, but these were the three that came out best for me, Raucous (32) and Mazzini (31) being some way back. Not sure I’d want to wager in this race, but Tropics may be weighted out of it, which would leave me with Boundsy from Raven’s Lady.

Kempton 17.00 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (100) 16f AW – 11 Run

Last year – 118 (100) 9 ran
Blakeney Point 12/1 (89) Dr 9 by 1.25l from Higher Power 15/8 F 5-9-12 (100) Dr 5

Sunblazer 8-8-12 (88) Dr 12
06 Jan Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 16f AW Kemp (96) 4/1 2.75l 3/9 off 88
Mid-division, driven and headway 2f out, ridden final furlong, kept on
Has shown on both turf and AW since October, winning a Cl 4 over C&D here in mid-December and then finishing a credible 3rd to Lord George when raised to this level in January; not seen since but has shown form after a break in the past.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: trainer (14d) (?); 91-day break; age; high draw;
Verdict: (47): likely to go well if returning in the form of December/January, but a contender with a question or two.
Authors Dream 5-8-11 (87) Dr 3
03 Mar Cl 4 Hcap (66 u) 16f AW Ling (85) 11/10 F 3.5l 1/4 off 81
[i]Tracked leader, led after 6f, soon 4 lengths clear and pressed on, went further clear 4f out, pushed along in 10 lengths lead 2f out, 8 lengths ahead entering final furlong, pushed out and lead reduced but never in any danger[/i]
The fitting of a visor when coming back from a 146-day break over C&D here in November has sparked marked improvement, for while he was only 3rd that day under today’s jockey, he has since rattled off a 4-timer at Wolverhampton and Lingfield, the latest in a Cl 4 at the start of last month in yet another career best performance; has been raised 6lbs for that and is up 2 classes today, but looks to be a rapidly improving sort and there could be more to come.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best (lto);
Minus: class (?); up 6lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (39) improving sort and a possible contender despite the rise in weight and class;
Inn The Bull 5-8-10 (86) Dr 2
31 Mar Cl 4 Hcap (64 u) 14f AW Kemp (84) 11/4 Co F 0.75l 1/7 off 81
Held up in last pair, ridden and progress over 2f out, closed to lead 1f out, soon hard pressed, driven out and held on
Hasn’t been particularly exceptional on turf (1/10), but has won 2 of his 6 hurdle starts; however, tried on the AW since the turn of the year he has won over 14f and 12f in February, and then over 12f here last weekend under today’s rider when raised to Cl 4 for the first time; runs off 5lbs higher today, plus is up 2 classes and has 4f further to cover today; while those are all questions to answer, he was not stopping when winning over 14f at Wolverhampton in February.
Plus: course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (38) a number of questions to answer, but 3/3 on AW and could have more to give, a contender.
Curbyourenthusiasm 7-9-10 (100) Dr 8
This will be his first UK hcap start since winning over 14f at Chelmsford in November 2016 off a 5lbs higher mark; does have placed form in stks races over today’s distance, but was flattered by his proximity to the winner when runner-up to Watersmeet over C&D here at the end of February; as a 7yo with 25 starts it seems unlikely that there’s any improvement to come at this trip.
Plus: class (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (37) giving weight to the field on his return to hcaps over a distance he’s never won over, so not the strongest contender today.
Champagne Champ 6-8-11 (87) Dr 7
Consistent enough flat form last season at up to 18f even though he has yet to win any of his 4 AW starts to date; has also performed well enough in 3 hurdle starts, the latest over 21f here 3 weeks back, so should strip fit enough.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto; down 1lb;
Minus: 180-day break (21-day hdl); up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: (35) good enough form last term at around this trip to suggest he’s a possible contender.

Although older horses have won past renewals, it’s generally 4yos to 6yos we’re looking for. Now that’s not the sole reason I’m passing on Curbyourenthusiasm, but he is the first for the cull, while a wide draw also counts against Sunblazer, so he goes too. That leaves me with Authors Dream and Inn The Bull, as well as Champagne Champ. The first pair are on healthy win streaks and both look they’re improving sorts, while Champagne Champ should be fit from hurdling and ran well at around this distance last year, albeit he is without an AW win to date. Hard to pick between them, but perhaps Authors Dream from Inn The Bull with Champagne Champ and Sunblazer contesting the final placings

Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests