Thursday 12th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 12th April

Postby Devasteve » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:58 am

Not as bad as feared on Saturday, and managed to find a little time to look at this one today.

Aintree 16.50 Gr 3 Hcap 505 (153) 16f gd/sf – 16 Run

Last year – 506 (150) gd 14 ran
Double W’s 8/1 7-11-1 (139) by 1l from Theinval 15/2 7-11-6 (144)
Bun Doran 6/1 F 6-11-1 (139) was 4.75l 3rd
Gino Trail 14/1 10-11-7 (145) was 11.75l 6th
Doitforthevillage 11/1 8-10-5 (129) Fell after 4 out

Gino Trail 11-11-12 (153)
16 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (630 u) 16.5f sf Chelt 25/1 4.5l 2/22 off 152
led, clear 8th to before 3 out, ridden between last 2, headed after last, readily outpaced by winner flat, just held on for 2nd near finish
Has been in good form this season winning 3 of his 5 starts at around this trip since the fitting of cheek-pieces at Wetherby in November; latest success came at Sandown in early February and he followed up by finishing runner-up in the Grand Annual at the Festival when he had several of these behind him; runs off an 8lbs higher mark than when 6th in last year’s renewal, although it’s likely that the ground was plenty firm enough for him that day; likes to race from the front, but has a lot to do in giving weight to the field here.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (27 days);
Minus: going (?); up 1lb; age (?);
Verdict: (41) fine form this term, but might find top weight anchoring him against younger horses and perhaps not the strongest contender today.
Tommy Silver 6-11-3 (144)
05 Mar Cl 4 NHF (30 d) 18f AW Kemp 2/9 F 0.75l 2/4
shaded keen, tracked leader pair, switched left over 2f out, soon 2nd, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, always just held
Useful enough hurdler and has taken well enough to fences this term making all to win a fast ground novice at Leicester in November; runner-up at Bangor thereafter, was by no means disgraced when 3 of 4 to Cymame in the Gr 2 Wayward Lad Novices at the Kempton Christmas meeting; off then until runner-up in a Kempton AW bumper in early March and looks to have been targeted at this; however, is off a high enough mark for his hcap debut.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (38 days);
Minus: class; hcap debut;
Verdict: (40) likely novice and while high mark for HCh debut, a possible contender.
King’s Socks 6-10-13 (140)
15 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (630 u) 21f sf Chelt 7/1 8.5l 5/22 off 140
mid-division, headway to tracked leaders before 4 out, every chance when hit 2 out, soon ridden, kept on same pace, no impression from last
Useful hurdler on sf in France in 2016 and had wind surgery before joining Pipe that autumn; however, didn’t make UK debut until February when running well for a long way over 20.5f at Kempton; followed up with another promising effort over 21f at the Festival last month; may well be suited by the drop back in trip today.
Plus: class (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: going; distance (?); course (?);
Verdict: (37) not a lot to go on, but has shown promise in both UK starts and dropped back in trip a contender.
Theinval 8-11-0 (141)
16 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (630 u) 16.5f sf Chelt 16/1 5.25l 4/22 off 141
tracked leaders, travelled well in 4th after 3 out, ridden and one pace between last 2, kept on but always held from last
Runs off a 3lbs lower mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal and is coming off his best effort of the year when 4th to Le Prezien in the Grand Annual; was only 0.75l behind Gino Trail (+11) and meets him on 1lb better terms today; that said, however, he doesn’t have the greatest strike rate over fences (2/19) and while frequently thereabouts both wins came at novice level, the last in December 2016.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: 10-race losing streak;
Verdict: (36) lots of pluses, but strike rate suggests he’s not the strongest contender for the win.
Bun Doran 7-10-12 (139)
17 Mar Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250 u) 20.5f sf Kemp 11/2 3.74l 3/19 off 139
held up towards rear, jumped slowly 7th, good headway chasing leaders before 3 out, challenged on 3rd 3 out, close 2nd next, jumped right last, outpaced run-in
Runs off the same mark as when 3rd in last year’s renewal; finished runner-up to Gino Trail (+9) on return at Cheltenham in mid-December and enjoys a 5lbs advantage today; a little disappointing at Wetherby in January and finishing 3rd to Cepage at Kempton last month followed a similar break to last year’s preparation and one presumes that today is the season’s target.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days); back in trip;
Minus: going; up in class;
Verdict: (29) would appear to be season’s target and may have improved from last season, a contender.

What little that can be gleaned from past trends suggests that we’re looking for horses from 5yo to 9yo that finished in the first 6 (or PU) on their last start within the last 2 to 8 weeks. Only one of the last 10 winners carried more than 11-1 and their official marks have largely fallen in the 132 to 143 zone. Interestingly, only 2 of the past 10 had previously won a chase at above Cl 3, or run in more than a single Group chase. So in short, we’re looking for improving young chasers with recent form that have not been harshly handicapped.

Looking at my shortlist, while Gino Trail has been in fine form this year he is getting up in years and has to give weight to the field, no small task for a front-runner that is likely to be taken on for the lead. Moreover, he is more exposed than ideal at this level and one wonders if he has fully recovered from his gallant effort in the Grand Annual. Thus while it wouldn’t surprise me to see him make the frame, I think I’ll look elsewhere for the winner. Theinval is also coming from the Grand Annual where he recorded his best effort of the season. He’s another that’s rather exposed at this level and it is a little worrying that all he has to show for it are a pair of novice successes back in 2016. Nevertheless, he’s another that could well go close, although I’m thinking the grand prize will go elsewhere.

So while either of that pair may well make the frame, I expect the winner to come from the trio of Tommy Silver, King’s Socks and Bun Doran. The questions about Tommy Silver involve the high mark for his hcap debut, plus he is coming from a bumper and has only 4 chase starts to his name. He may win, but the other pair look more inviting as both seem to have been specifically targeted at the race. King’s Socks looks like a typical Pipe French import and should go close, but I’m inclined to favour Bun Doran who I believe has come on since last year and yet still runs off the same mark. So notwithstanding the threat of Theinval or Gino Trail to make the frame, I’m going with Bun Doran from King’s Socks with the other three scrapping it out for the minor places.

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