Saturday 14th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 14th April

Postby Devasteve » Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:18 am

Probably used up all my luck yesterday, especially as I've used up virtually all my time (and then some!) on the Grand National - but it only comes once a year, and it's been a while since I got it right - long gone are the years of Red Alligator, Red Rum, et al!

Aintree 15.40 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 422 (155) 25f sf – 17 Run

Last year – 394 (148) 16 ran
Sizing Codeco 10/1 8-11-3 (139) by 13l from Rightdownthemiddle 16/1 9-11-1 (137)

Paper Lantern 9-10-4 (133)
Much improved form in first-time blinkers when winning over 24.5f on hv at Fairyhouse under today’s rider a fortnight back; runs off an11lbs higher mark this side of the water, but could be improving.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (12 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 11lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) will the blinkers work again this side of the water is the question; if they do then he’s a contender.
Thomas Patrick 6-10-10 (139)
Just the 3 starts over fences, but has won 2 of them, a 23.5f NCh on hv at Chepstow in February and a Cl 3 HCh over 26f on sf at Newbury at the end of last month; has been raised 8lbs for that, but likely there’s more to come.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (41) winning hurdler, but has really taken to fences and likely much more to come in this field, a contender.
Bells Of Ainsworth 8-10-3 (132)
Somewhat fragmented career, but produced a career best when taking a Bangor Cl 3 over 24f on sf at the start of December; not seen then until mid-March when finishing 3/7 off his 10lbs higher mark; might show some improvement on second run back, but this a whole new ballgame.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (33 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 2 classes;
Verdict: (33) decent enough strike rate over fences (3/9) but seems to need his racing in short spells; may do better today after a month’s rest, but mark still paying for Bangor win and not the strongest of contenders here methinks.

Only time for the briefest of reviews here, taking in my top three rated. Easy to see why Thomas Patrick is favourite and he may well win. However, it might be worthwhile taking him on with the Irish challenger Paper Lantern at a longer price and who should make the frame if the blinkers work again. So Paper Lantern from Tho0mas Patrick and Bells Of Ainsworth perhaps.

Aintree 17.15 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 5000 (152) 34.5f sf – 40 Run (38 at best)

Last year – 5613 (161) gd 40 ran
One For Arthur 14/1 8-10-11 (148) by 4.5l from Cause Of Causes 16/1 9-10-13 (150)
Saint Are 25/1 11-10-10 (147) was 8.25l 3rd
Blaklion 8/1 F 8-11-1 (152) was 8.75l 4th
Gas Lion Boy 50/1 11-10-7 (144) was 16.75l 5th
Vieux Lion Rouge 12/1 8-10-12 (149) was 26.75l 6th
Lord Windermere 33/1 11-10-10 (147) was 27.75l 7th
Regal Encore 33/1 9-10-13 (150) was 28l 8th
Pleasant Company 11/1 9-10-12 (149) was 28.1l 9th
Houblon Des Obeaux 50/1 10-10-12 (149) was 42.1l 10th
The Last Samuri 16/1 9-11-10 (161) was 66.1l 16th
Tenor Nivernais 40/1 10-11-1 (152) was 72.1l 17th
Shantou Flyer50/1 7-11-5 (156) PU before 4 out
Raz De Maree 33/1 12-10-9 (146) UR 6th
Ucailo Conte 20/1 9-10-12 (149) UR 22nd
Thunder And Roses 25/1 9-10-7 (144) UR 9th

Blaklion 9-11-10 (161)
Runs off 9lbs higher than when 5th in last year’s renewal and having his first start since a wind operation.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: weight;
Verdict: (48) only a single run since landing the Becher here in early December and while he has had a wind operation since being well outpaced at Haydock, combination of high weight, hv ground and just 3 starts this term hamper his chances as a strong contender.
Total Recall 9-11-5 (156)
Has done well since joining Mullins from Sandra Hughes in September, beating Alpha Des Obeaux (+16) at Limerick in October and then just denying Whisper (+14) in the Ladbroke Gold Trophy at Newbury in early December; took a HHd at Leopardstown in February in his preparation for the Gold Cup bid at Cheltenham where he was going well enough when falling 3 out; has won on sf/hv, but never on hv.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (29 days);
Minus: going; course (?); weight;
Verdict: (47) question of how he’s got over his Cheltenham fall, plus the weight he’s carrying in this going damage his chance of being a strong contender.
Anibale Fly 8-11-8 (159)
16 Mar Gr 1 Ch (3698 u) 26.5f sf Chelt (169) 33.1 8.5l 3/15 off 159
[i]Mid-division, headway after 4 out, soon ridden, stayed on into 3rd between last 2, finished well but never threatened to get on terms with front pair[/i]
Beat Ubello Conti (-10) in fine style at Leopardstown over Christmas, but fell 2 out in the Irish Gold Cup there in February; bounced back to record a career best in finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham lto, although never getting to the leaders; that’s as far as he’s run, however, so no given that he’ll stay this far, even if he is over Cheltenham.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); weight;
Verdict: (44) question of how he’s recovered from Cheltenham, plus questions about weight in this going and the distance damage his chances of being a strong contender.
Tiger Roll 8-10-13 (150)
14 Mar Cl 2 X-Country Chase (403 u) 30f sf Chelt (159) 7/1 2l 1/16 off 150
Tracked leaders, slightly hampered 12th, led just before 5 out, asserted before last, stayed on gamely
Had the last Samuri (0) 11l back in 3rd at Cheltenham lto, but is not the most consistent of chasers and followed up last season’s Cheltenham by being PU in the Irish National, plus was PU on only start on heavier than sf..
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (31 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: (41) question of how much Cheltenham took out of him, especially as he’s not the most consistent and a contender with questions.
Captain Redbeard 9-10-7
Mud-lover whose claims here are based on his runner-up effort to The Dutchman in the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January; since then he has won over hurdles in the mud at Ayr; ran over these fences in the Grand Sefton and was moving up when hampered 4 out and after a mistake at the next was never a major factor finishing midfield to Gas Line Boy.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (28) statistically fine, but no win beyond 23f means he’s a contender with questions.
Milansbar 11-10-6 (143)
Has been a regular in the big staying chases for a number of years in between lengthy breaks; this year his best by far, however, for besides taking the Betfred Classic under today’s rider at Warwick in January, he finished 5th in the Eider and runner-up to Regal Flow (-5) in the Midland National last month; has been raised 1lb for that, but just a question if this is a race too far, as he’s already contested the Welsh National (Trial and National itself), and the Eider this season too.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: course (?): up 1lb;
Verdict: (27) has been running consistently for once and a possible contender for at least a place if things go right.
The Dutchman 8-10-11 (148)
Joined the Tizzard yard from Sandy Thomson in November and after a couple of runs to get straight he dominated the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January under today’s rider, coming clear from Captain Redbeard after the last; back there the following month for the National Trial he was going well enough before losing his place quickly at the 10th and was PU before the next; it’s believed that he bled, but takes his place today and trainer and jockey had a winner here yesterday.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (56);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (27) second season chaser who has improved for the change of yard and a possible contender if recovered from what ailed him at Haydock lto.

Numerous others that just failed to make the shortlist in a field this size, including:
I Just Know – not won above Cl 3
Seeyouatmidnight – just one start this season, so undercooked
Regal Encore – never won beyond 24f or on hv – Now a N/R
Baie Des Iles – 7yo

Despite the success of Many Clouds (11-9), Neptune Collonges (11-6), and Don’t Push It (11-5) this century, they were the only winners to carry above 11-1 this century, and didn’t run on sf let alone hv ground. Thus given this distance and the ground, I’m ruling out all of those carrying above 11-0. So goodbye to Blaklion, Anibale Fly and Total Recall from my shortlist. They might win, but they’ll have to be something special to do so! The last 22 winners all had between 3 to 7 runs that season, so it would be foolish to cross that line too. Another curious fact is that 21 of the past 22 winners all had their last run between 16 and 60 days previously, while 10 to 25 previous chase runs appear to be the limits too. Just to show that form has not been forgotten, the vast majority finished in the top 5 lto (1 Fell & 1 PU) and all but one of the past 22 winners had previously won over 24.5f or further – 16 had also run over 29f or further. Of course, you can go too far and end up with no contenders!

Looking at my remaining quartet, Tiger Roll and Milansbar come out best, but I’m a little wary of taking Cheltenham horses in the National, preferring to stick with those coming from handicaps elsewhere. The question about Milansbar is, of course, about Bryony Frost in the saddle. However, a lady rider will win the National one day, just as a French-bred had to. It’s 41 years since Charlotte Brew rode Barony Fort in 1977; 36 years since Geraldine Rees became the first to complete the course, on Cheers in 1982. It’s only six years though since Katie Walsh finished 3rd on Seabass. This year she rides the fancied 7yo Baie Des Iles (too young??), but may be outpointed by Rachel Blackmore on Alpha Des Obeaux, or more likely by Bryony Frost on Milansbar – Paul Nicholls, for one, is very high on her riding talents. So in the hopes I haven’t got them in the wrong order. My four e/w shots against the field would be Milansbar from The Dutchman, Captain Redbeard and Tiger Roll. I believe they’re paying out at up to the top six, so I might get one in there somewhere!

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 14th April

Postby martinkil » Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:10 pm

GN 1/5 odds first 6 - Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfred, Totesport, Boylesport, Betvictor


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