Saturday 20th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
omaha13
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:28 pm

Saturday 20th April

Postby omaha13 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:40 pm

Evening all

I like topspeed top2 in racing post for the Scottish national, The Young Master & Silsol

cant say the same for the spring mile, so be interesting to see what patten form brings for that race & the Scottish champion hurdle.apparantly henderson 0/15 for latter race and he has 3 in it including jt top rated on topspeed..

Omaha...

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 20th April

Postby Devasteve » Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:23 am

Seeing as how someone has already started the thread, I'll pop mine on here.

Not too upset with last week’s efforts, as besides a winner I also managed first and fifth in the National, though I had the order back to front! Let’s see what happens today where my concentration has been at Newbury as the Scottish National usually gives me a beating!

Newbury 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (104) 8f gd/sf – 25 Run (22 at best)

Last year – 311 (106) gd/fm 21 ran
Banksea 9/1 4-9-4 (100) Dr 12 by 0.5l from Another Touch 16/1 4-9-0 (96) Dr 8
George William 10/1 4-8-12 (94) Dr 7 was 0.62l 4th
Master Carpenter 14/1 6-8-10 (97) Dr 1 was 9,57l 15th

Tony Curtis 5-9-10 (104) Dr 12
04 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (934 u) 8f sf Good (106) 14/1 0.75l 2/17 off 102
Held up in touch in midfield, not clear run and switched left over 1f out, headway under pressure 1f out, edging right but stayed on strongly inside final furlong, snatched 2nd last stride
Won twice as a 2yo, but no further success although was 4th in the Bunbury and runner-up in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood in his last two starts, the latter in a career best; starts this season off a 2lbs higher mark and while he won on his debut as a 2yo, that was in July; little high in the weights for the average winner too.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: going; course (?); 260-day break; up 4lbs;
Verdict: (42) showed promise in curtailed season last year, but likely to need a run and high in the weights so not the strongest contender.
Afaak 4-9-3 (97) Dr 18
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (187 s) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (93) 6/1 0.5l 2/16 off 92
Chased leader until led 2f out, soon ridden and edged left over 1f out, hard pressed 1f out, kept on well until headed and no extra towards finish
Unraced as 2yo but after initial run won twice early last season, continued to run well but saved the best for last in recording a career best when runner-up to Addeybb in the Silver Cambridgeshire; that form has been well and truly franked with Addeybb coming out and winning the Lincoln in no uncertain manner off a 6lbs higher mark; Afaak starts the season off a 5lbs higher mark, but has plenty of scope for further improvement.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 204-day break; up 5lbs;
Verdict: (38) drawn a little on the high side, but could well over come that and looks a strong contender.
Humbert 4-9-0 (94) Dr 24
24 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f sf Donc (95) 14/1 0.25l 2/20 off 90
Slight lead, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headed well over 1f out, driven and rallied gamely inside final furlong, kept on well towards finish
Showed promise in his pair of 2yo starts but missed virtually the whole of his 3yo season until returning to win a Kempton Mdn last December; won his next two as well before being runner-up at Lingfield and then in the Spring Mile at Doncaster with a career best performance; has been raised 4lbs for that, but further improvement likely on turf; drawn high, however, which may pose a problem.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (36) drawn high but may overcome that with running style of being up with the pace; yet to win on turf but disrupted career means this is only his 4th turf start; a contender.
Taqdeer 5-9-1 (95) Dr 16
24 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f sf Donc (95) 7/2 F 8.25l 7/20 off 95
Held up towards rear, steady headway over 3f out, chased leaders 2f out, soon ridden and no impression
Runner-up on only 2yo start, but won at both Chelmsford and Newmarket to launch his 3yo career; that quickly curtailed after his May win at Newmarket and despite being gelded last season he never made the races; made favourite for the Spring Mile at Doncaster and showed enough promise before failing to become involved in the finish on the soft ground; drying ground a help today, plus should have come on for the run.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days);
Minus: class; going (?); course (?);
Verdict: (35) unexposed sort and could possibly reverse Doncaster running with Humbert, a contender.
Gilgamesh 4-8-12 (92) Dr 17
A winning 2yo, after being gelded he won his first 3 starts as a 3yo over 7f, but then was then off the course from May till November at Chelmsford where he was staying on well to finish 4/13 to Boy In The Bar over 7f; not seen since, but the booking of Buick a positive and he may well step up to this new trip at this new level.
Plus: trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: (30) a lot of questions, but has the potential to answer them and a possible contender.
Third Time Lucky 6-9-1 (95) Dr 10
Never quite sure which version is going to turn up, but won the Cambridgeshire off this mark in 2015; promising effort on the AW in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton last month, but then failed to turn up for the Irish Lincoln a fortnight later, although he was not best drawn and the ground was against him; which version will turn up today is anyone’s guess, but well enough drawn and better ground today may spark a revival.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (27 days); recent form run (42 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (27) a possible contender if putting best foot forward, but will he?

Generally 4yo to 6yo, often unexposed types who making their way towards better things, although Fahey has a habit of doing well with more exposed types. In the past, the Lincoln and Spring Mile at Doncaster have yielded clues, while those drawn in the middle generally fare best.

Looking at my shortlist I have to pass on Tony Curtis despite his positive draw, as he’s got more weight to carry than any winner in recent memory. Of Fahey’s pair, Gabrial looks to have a few lbs too many, plus is drawn on the high side, so Third Time Lucky looks the better option. However, he’s far too in-and-out for me, so I think I’ll pass on him too. Of the remaining quartet, Gilgamesh has the most questions to answer in regard to class, distance and going, plus he’s only had one run since last May, and that five months ago. He may win, but not for me I’m afraid. Humbert did best of those in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, but he’s drawn high today and I’m more inclined to think that Taqdeer can reverse that running, as that was his first start in over 22 months and if not ‘bouncing’ should be a much better animal today. Whether that will be good enough to beat Afaak, however, is another matter. He wasn’t that far behind Addeybb in the Silver Cambridgeshire and the way that one ran away from the Lincoln field has me thinking that Afaak may do something similar today. So for me it’s Afaak from Taqdeer with Humbert out wide a danger as well as Third Time Lucky

Ayr 16.05 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 1224 (155) 32f gd – 30 Run (28 at best)

Last year – 1224 (148) gd 30 ran
Vicente 9/1 Jt F 8-11-10 (146) by 0.25l from Cogry 18/1 8-10-6 (131)
Benbens 50/1 12-10-8 (137) was 2.25l 3rd
Vintage Clouds 14/1 7-10-12 (134) was 13.75l 7th
Henri Parry Morgan 16/1 9-10-13 (135) was 19l 9th

Vincente 9-11-7 (150)
Taken out of last week’s Aintree affair no doubt because of the ground, as he actually prefers it gd/sf or firmer; certainly likes it around here having won the last 2 renewals and while he runs off a 4lbs higher mark, he’ll actually carry 3lbs less physical weight this year; little worrying he’s only had 3 starts this year against 5 last year and 4 the year before, especially as he’s failed to finish 2 of those; however, Nicholls obviously thinks that’s enough.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (39 days); down 1lb;
Minus: 154 days since form run;
Verdict: (44) forget current season form, as this is the target, a definite contender for at least a place.
Ballyoptic 8-11-6 (149)
Grade 1 winning hurdler who has taken to fences this season, beating Vintage Clouds (-3) at Wetherby in February and then finishing 4/10 to Presenting Percy in the RSA at Cheltenham where he looked as if he needed a sterner stamina test.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (38 days); down in class; down 1lb;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (44) improving sort who looked as if he needed this sort of trip at Cheltenham and a possible contender.
Glencairn View 8-10-4 (133)
Improving novice chaser who has won 2 of his last 3 starts, either side of finishing 3/15 in the Leinster National; latest success a career best over 24f at Navan off 121, and while he runs off 12lbs higher here, part of that is the Irish Sea freight rate! Bigger worry is how he’ll handle the firmer ground.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); recent form run (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 12lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (41) improving sort and a contender off his light weight.
Vintage Clouds 8-10-12 (141)
Runs off 7lbs higher than when 7th in last year’s renewal and despite his good recent form, runner-up to Ballyoptic at Wetherby and 3/18 in the Ultima at Cheltenham, those were both in heavy ground; just a feeling that the drying ground will once more find him out.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (39 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (27) drying ground damaged chances of being a contender.
The Young Master 9-10-3 (132)
Started his chasing career with a bang, but wins have been hard to come by of late; however, some promise in his effort in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham on his first start following wind surgery.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (37 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (26) down 16lbs since taking the Bet365 Gold Cup in April 2016 and that makes him dangerously handicapped, a contender.

Of others, Regal Flow is an 11yo who has never won at this level, plus is up a further 10lbs for winning the Midland National, while Henri Parry Morgan is a 10yo who is 4lbs higher than when 9th in last year’s renewal. Winners have generally had a run within the past 45 days and 3 to 6 starts in the current season, and a combination of those takes a few fancied runners out.

Of the ones on my shortlist I fear that the drying ground has done for Vintage Clouds, which is also a worry for Glencairn View. It’s asking an awful lot of Vicente to complete a hat-trick of wins and while he’s likely to go close, I think I’ll look elsewhere for the winner. Ballyoptic has a lot of weight to carry for such a unexposed chaser, so I think we’ll have to go out on a limb and take The Young Master from Ballyoptic and Vicente with Glencairn View the best of the Irish contenders.


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