non aw system test

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
mattgiffin
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:59 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby mattgiffin » Tue May 01, 2018 9:47 am

not to clued up on the irish racing and some silly priced odds have come up so highlight the word test and see how they do

Ballinrobe 1st May - 17:35 2m1f Mdn Hrd
Backing: Avellino OR Life Isfor Living
Ballinrobe 1st May - 18:05 2m1f Hcap Hrd
Backing: Hugh Divots OR Rathnaleen Girl
Ballinrobe 1st May - 18:35 2m5f Mdn Hrd
Backing: Touch Base OR Le Hachette
Ballinrobe 1st May - 19:05 2m5f Hcap Hrd
Backing: Padraic O Conaire OR Charms Bracelet
Ballinrobe 1st May - 19:35 2m3f Hcap Chs
Backing: Fairly Legal OR Fit To Be Tied
Ballinrobe 1st May - 20:05 2m1f Beg Chs
Backing: Last Encounter OR West of Milan
Ballinrobe 1st May - 20:35 2m1f INHF
Backing: Vent Dautomne OR Total Diva

spotters

Nottingham 1st May - 14:00 5f Nov Stks
Backing: Red Handed
Nottingham 1st May - 14:30 1m Nov Stks
Backing: Giovanni
Nottingham 1st May - 15:00 1m Hcap
Backing: Chantresse
Nottingham 1st May - 15:35 1m Hcap
Backing: Prying Pandora
Nottingham 1st May - 16:05 1m2f Hcap
Backing: Double Reflection OR Apache Blaze
Nottingham 1st May - 16:35 1m6f Hcap
Backing: Zenafire
Nottingham 1st May - 17:05 5f Hcap
Backing: Flos Melody OR Angel Force

spotters


Yarmouth 1st May - 14:10 5f Mdn Stks
Backing: Hard Forest
Yarmouth 1st May - 15:15 1m2f Hcap
Backing: Ravenhoe OR Tyrsal
Yarmouth 1st May - 15:45 7f Hcap
Backing: Salt Whistle Bay OR Mountain Rescue
Yarmouth 1st May - 16:15 7f Hcap
Backing: Ramblow OR Hows Lucy
Yarmouth 1st May - 16:45 1m Hcap
Backing: Gainsay OR Mandarin Princess
Yarmouth 1st May - 17:15 1m Hcap
Backing: Olive Mabel OR Choral Music
Yarmouth 1st May - 17:50 1m Hcap
Backing: Slow To Hand OR Candesta

Msalway2016
Posts: 162
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:38 pm

Re: non aw system test

Postby Msalway2016 » Tue May 01, 2018 6:44 pm

my 2 cents..

if you are relying just on pattern form, you probably won't make long-term profit

pattern form, combined with other reasoning, can strengthen your argument that a horse might win a race but there are so many other factors: jockey, draw, trainer, trainer form, jockey form, trainer/jockey, course, distance, horse form, horse age, sex, weight. PF is a nice guide but that's all it is. IMO. :!:

where I find it most useful is recent horse form, say last 3 runs, check it over distance +1/2 either way, but I wouldn't rely just on PF.

RAN TO is an incredibly good guide for chases, hurdles. It takes into account recent runs and official rating and, in many cases, if all horses run to their form, the horse at the top of RAN TO should win. but obviously there are so many variables such as weather, jockey, course, etc., which can change the outcome. there's also the factor that sometimes a horse is in a race not to win it, but to get his handicap mark down, or just get a run into him. Or a horse has had that run and it was a "canter" and so his last run OR won't be that good, but then he's bang on it in this race and he storms it. That's why PF is just one tool in your armoury but you definitely have to have other weapons if you want to take this game down. GL

mattgiffin
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:59 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby mattgiffin » Tue May 01, 2018 8:11 pm

My hearts in the aw and run sectional timings but not to good elsewhere so was just having a play around and see what could be done but taking your advice I’ll stick to what I know best.
I’m happy with my aw results

Thanks for the advice

I’ll put my thinking cap on and see what I can come up with

gpnt
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:54 pm

Re: non aw system test

Postby gpnt » Tue May 01, 2018 9:52 pm

I agree with GL very difficult to profit from aw races I have success however all my bets are lucky 63s and now goliath bets my advice is to understand what makes a winners I always put the filter to undulated, severe undulations, Std slow, downhill courses Epsom, beverley, Brighton etc this filter system also works well for soft going at courses like Notts, Haydock, Yarmouth use the galloping filter too. A great way to understand course record holders and what horses best suit the races you follow is to use at the races com site I use gg.co.uk quite a lot to see previous form this site is just a lot quicker to use

mattgiffin
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:59 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby mattgiffin » Wed May 02, 2018 10:02 am

well i took your advice, and today ive changed the game plan, im ok on the aw its everywhere else i struggle so just having a play with the filters and see what i can produce..


Ascot 2nd May - 15:45 6f Grp 3
Backing: Eirene
Ascot 2nd May - 16:20 1m Listed
Backing: Victory Bond
Ascot 2nd May - 16:55 1m App Hcap
Backing: Love And Be Loved OR Professor
big odds low strike rate system
Bath 2nd May - 18:20 6f Hcap
Backing: Bellevarde
Bath 2nd May - 19:20 6f Hcap
Backing: Black Truffle
Bath 2nd May - 19:50 6f Hcap
Backing: The Daley Express OR Pastfact
Bath 2nd May - 20:20 5f Hcap
Backing: Davids Beauty

mattgiffin
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:59 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby mattgiffin » Wed May 02, 2018 10:38 pm

results

lost
lost
lost lost
3rd 4/1
2nd 9/1
won 7/2
lost

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby martinkil » Thu May 03, 2018 6:41 am

Msalway2016 wrote:my 2 cents..

if you are relying just on pattern form, you probably won't make long-term profit

.... there's also the factor that sometimes a horse is in a race not to win it, but to get his handicap mark down, or just get a run into him. .....


Wash your mouth out with soap - as if ANY trainer would do that !!!!!! :) :)

mattgiffin
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:59 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby mattgiffin » Thu May 03, 2018 8:14 am

the good thing about building a system is our mind set is to get a profit but in todays world betting is different so if you find like myself you get bad win strike rates on the non aw then maybe ive built a lay system .......as they say always look on the bright side of life

mattgiffin
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:59 am

Re: non aw system test

Postby mattgiffin » Fri May 04, 2018 12:55 pm

Back to the drawing board. Will resume after numeral overload break down


Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests