Saturday 28th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 28th April

Postby Devasteve » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:14 am

Not too bad last Saturday and Wednesday, save I got my top two the wrong way round! The Scottish National also went as expected – I had no chance of picking that one! Time to say goodbye to NH for a while after today, so I had a stab at the final major chase.

Sandown 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 844 (161) 29f gd – 20 Runners

Last year – 844 (152) gd – 13 ran
Henllan Harri 40/1 9-9-0 (122) by 0.1l from Vyata Du Roc 6/1 8-10-11 (137)
Theatre Guide 20/1 10-11-12 (152) was 0.35l 3rd
Benbens 14/1 12-10-9 (135) was 0.6l 4th
Rock The Kasbah 8/1 7-11-2 (142) was 2.1l 6th
Sugar Baron 8/1 7-10-8 (134) was 2.2l 7th
The Young Master 8/1 8-11-5 (148) was 9.2l 9th
Present Man 12/1 7-10-13 (142) PU before 2 out.

Blaklion 9-11-12 (161)
Useful chaser who finished 4th in the 2017 Grand National and well fancied for this year’s renewal after finishing runner-up in the Charlie Hall and then taking the Becher on his first starts back this term before finishing a rather distant runner-up to Yala Enki in the National Trial at Haydock in February; subsequently had wind surgery, but hopes were that he could defy the weight in the Grand National got no further than the first fence where he was BD; this is presumably an attempt to salvage something from the season, although he is giving 7lbs or more to the rest of the field as he carries 8lbs more than when winning the Becher.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (47) useful chaser but will need a career best to win with this weight and perhaps not the strongest contender.
Missed Approach 8-10-11 (146)
15 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (420 u) 26f sf Chelt (145) 8/1 0.5l 1/20 off 138
Looked well, made all, hit 3rd, ridden after 3 out, just over a length up when hit last, stayed on gamely, driven out
Had shown improving form this season before undergoing a wind operation in February and returned to make all in taking the Kim Muir at the Festival in a career best under today’s rider when The Young Master (-3) was 18.5l 6th on his first start since his own wind operation; MA has been raised 8lbs for that, although his amateur rider is entitled to his 3lbs claim today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (44 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) improving chaser for whom a breathing operation has brought success; could well have more to give and a definite contender.
The Young Master 9-10-0 (135)
Last success was when taking the 2016 renewal off 148, but finished 9/13 off the same mark last year; indifferent form had continued, but following a February win operation showed some promise in the Kim Muir at the Festival; on the basis of that was quietly fancied for the Scottish National last week, but UR at the first.; runs from 3lbs out of the handicap here and thus has something to find with Missed Approach even on the revised terms.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (7 days);
Minus: 3lbs ooh; no form run since 2016 win here;
Verdict: (40) not without a chance if Cheltenham run to be believed, but an act of faith to say a strong contender.
Step Back 8-10-0 (135)
07 Apr Cl 4 Nov Chase (56 d) 24f gd/sf Fake (134) 8/13 F 16l 1/5 off 124
Jumped quickly if a bit to the right, made all, 5 lengths ahead 3 out and kept increasing advantage over toiling pursuers after, eased flat, quite impressive
Only his 4th chase, but mightily impressive when making all over 24f at Fakenham lto; has been raised 11lbs for his return to handicapping, but looks likely to appreciate the extra distance and cheek-pieces fitted for the first time; very much up in class, but the world is his oyster.
Plus: going (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 3 classes; up 11lbs;
Verdict: (36) fast improving chaser, but speculative to call him a strong contender
Rathlin Rose 10-10-0 (135)
Has gone well in military chases here and set a career best when winning over 24f at Ascot last month; however, fell 4 out in the Topham at Aintree lto; runs from 2lbs out of the handicap here so will require another career best to be a force here and yet to prove ability at this level.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (15 days);
Minus: class; 2lbs ooh;
Verdict: (31) yet to win at this level and not the strongest contender from out of the handicap.
Bigbadjohn 9-10-3 (138)
Joined current yard from Rebecca Curtis in January and won first start for new connections when dropped back to Cl 3 at Kempton in February; raised 5lbs for that, he also failed to complete in the Topham at Aintree lto, UR at the 5th; stable companion of the top weight and has potential to turn out to be a solid performer in races such as this.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (15 days);
Minus: distance; course (?);
Verdict: (30) potential recruit to a yard that loves stayers and a possible contender.

What we are looking for are 7 to 9yo chasers, or older if Gr 1 or Gr 2 winners, that have had at least 3 outings during the current season, the latest within the past 50 days. It’s also important to have previously won over at least 24f. Rock The Kasbah fails all those requirements and I’ll be surprised if he wins. One that might have a chance though is Minella Daddy, as Flemensfirth offspring have a good record in the race. Still, on to my shortlist.

When it comes to weight only 3 horses have toted 11-6 or more to victory in the past 30 years, Tidal Bay being the last in 2012, so I’m afraid that removes Blaklion from my shortlist, while The Young Master looks too exposed and it would be a leap of faith to hope that he could repeat his 2016 form even though he’s 13lbs lighter this time round. Rathlin Rose is another running from out of the handicap, and I thus have to question his chances. Of the remaining trio, Step Back lacks experience but has shown a deal of promise, while Bigbadjohn could take on a new lease of life with the Twiston-Davies yard. However, the most likely winner to me is Missed Approach from Step Back and Bigbadjohn.

Haydock 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (105) 7f sf – 12 Run

Last year – 280 (109) gd/fm – 10 ran
Afjaan 3/1 F 5-9-1 (100) Dr 3 by 1.75l from Oh This Is Us 7/2 4-9-10 (109) Dr 1
Calder Prince 8/1 4-8-7 (92) Dr 9 was 5.25l 4th

Mijack 4-9-10 (105) Dr 1
17 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162 d) 7f gd/sf Nwmk (107) 7/1 1.5l 1/14 off 99
Chased leader, ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on
Won over C&D here in similar conditions last June under today’s rider before going on to finish runner-up in a pair of valuable Ascot handicaps; showed promise when staying on late to finish midfield in a 6f listed stks at Doncaster and confirmed that promise when setting a new career best at the Newmarket spring meeting; raised 6lbs for that but there could still be more to come in conditions that appear to suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (11 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 6lbs;
Verdict: (53) fit, in form and conditions suit, a definite contender.
Lualiwa 4-9-4 (99) Dr 5
31 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (125 d) 7f sf Muss (95) 6/1 3.75l 1/10 off 92
Dwelt, soon recovered and led, headed over 5f out, regained lead over 3f out, drew clear from over 1f out, comfortably
Progressive last season winning a pair of Cl 3 hcaps during the summer and had likely had enough by his final outing in a Cl 2 at Musselburgh in mid-October; given an AW outing to loosen the muscles at Newcastle in February and was definitely the part when winning a Cl 3 hcap in a career best at Musselburgh at the end of March; has been raised 7lbs for that, but likely there’s further improvement to come this season.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) proven in the conditions and at this level, a contender.
Calder Prince 5-9-4 (99) Dr 6
05 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (72 d) 7f AW Wolv (88) 2/1 F 6l 1/7 off 88
Soon led, headed 5f out, chased leader until led 2f out, ridden clear final furlong, easily
Runs off a 7lbs higher mark than when 4th in last year’s renewal, mainly due to the ease with which he won on his return at Wolverhampton earlier in the month when recording a career best; highly thought of early in his career but strike rate not overly impressive although often thereabouts; will need another career best to make a mark here off this mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 11lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) consistent enough, but maybe only place claims at this level

Difficult to know what the season returners may provide, while both Firmament and Burnt Sugar can be expected to come on for their runs at Thirsk last week, and one never knows when things will drop right for Bertiewhittle. However, one can see the logic behind the market support for both Mijack and Lualiwa, and to a lesser degree Calder Prince. So for me its Mijack from Lualiwa with perhaps Calder Prince filling out the frame.

Ripon 14.55 Cl 2 Hcap 137 (104) 6f gd/sf – 14 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 137 (105) gd 13 ran
Intisaab 17/2 6-9-4 (105) Dr 1 by 0.25l from Muntadab 4/1 F 5-8-11 (95) Dr 12
Red Pike 9/1 6-8-8 (92) Dr 3 was 3.3l 7th
Pipers Note 13/2 7-9-1 (99) Dr 5 was 3.32l 8th

Teruntum Star 6-9-7 (104) Dr 14
11 Nov List Stks (227 d) 6f sf Donc (112) 7/1 4l 4/14 off 104
Prominent, headway and close up 2f out, ridden to dispute lead over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, kept on same pace
Lightly raced 6yo who finished 4/15 in the Sky Bet Dash at York before going on to take the St. Wilfrid consolation here and the Coral Sprint at York and by no means disgraced in closing his season by being 4/14 to Dream Of Dreams in Listed company; has won on return in the past and handles the ground.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); down in class;
Minus: 168-day break
Verdict: (48) solid handicapper at this level and a contender if fit for return.
Flying Pursuit 5-9-6 (103) Dr 3
Has won 3 of his 7 starts here, but is only 4lbs better off with Teruntum Star for the 2l that separated them in the Coral Sprint at York last October, plus was behind him in the Listed stakes at Doncaster; moreover, appears to need a race or two to get going each season, and the stable’s not really firing yet (1/45).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: 168-day break;
Verdict: (42) would look to be held by Teruntum Star on last season’s running and generally needs a race, so not the strongest contender.
Pipers Note 8-9-0 (97) Dr 11
07 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (156 s) 6f AW Kemp (102) 14/1 2.5l 2/8 off 97
Held up in rear, progress 2f out, took 2nd inside final furlong, no threat to winner
Loves it around here and his 6 wins include the 2015 renewal off 99; finished 8th off the same mark last year; 2lbs lower this time round, but showed he was in good enough form when runner-up at Kempton earlier in the month; no surprise were he thereabouts.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus:
Verdict: likely to have come on for his return and seeing as this is Ripon, a possible contender.
Mobsta 6-8-8 (91) Dr 10
16 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (74 d) 6f hv Wind (89) Ev F 0.25 1/10 off 88
Held up in last trio, progress on outer over 2f out, closed on leaders over 1f out, driven ahead last 75yds, readily
It had been a long hard slog since winning a Gr 2 at the Curragh in May 2016, but mark had slid all the way down to 88 before he managed to return to the winner’s enclosure at Windsor lto; only raised 3lbs for that, but is up in class and hasn’t shown form at this level for some time, plus would prefer the rains to come.
Plus: class (W+); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: going; course; up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (36) fit and in form, but Windsor gave no indication he’s ready to win at this level; nevertheless, a contender.

Bit of a rush looking at this one, but from my quartet I can drop Flying Pursuit I think. Of the other three, I doubt the ground will be soft enough to suit Mobsta and thus am inclined to go with Terentum Star from veteran Pipers Note.

Sorry, Typo!!!

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