Saturday 5th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 5th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 05, 2018 9:52 am

Keep on getting them in the wrong order! Still, that's better than not getting them at all as may happen this week. Sorry for the rush today, plus missing the former Thirsk Hunt Cup at Wetherby – not a course I’ve taken to yet on the Flat. However, I have another appointment this evening – hence the early posting.

Newmarket 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (109) 9f gd – 16 Run

Last year – 311 (104) gd/fm – 9 ran
Playful Sound10/1 4-8-12 (93) Dr 5 by 1.25l from Next Stage 2/1 F 4-9-1 (96) Dr 8

Third Time Lucky 6-8-8 (93) Dr 14
21 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (311 d) 8f gd/sf Newb (104) 20/1 9.6l 6/22 off 95
Held up towards rear, headway from 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 6th towards finish, never dangerous
Has become less consistent as he’s grown older, but didn’t run badly in the Newbury Spring Cup lto and has been dropped a couple of lbs since, which means he’s 2lbs lower than when taking the 2015 Cambridgeshire over C&D here; will need to build on that effort, but is not without claims.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (14 days); down 2lbs;
Minus:
Verdict: (42) suitable opportunity if building on Newbury effort, a contender.
Oasis Charm 4-8-11 (96) Dr 2
06 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (97 d) 10f AW Chelm (96) 5/4 F 1l 1/6 off 91
Took keen hold early, chased leaders until settled in 4th after 2f, effort to chase leader 2f out, ridden to challenge and awkward head carriage 1f out, edging left and led 100yds out, stayed on
Won a fast ground mdn over 10f at Leicester in April last year, but didn’t show a lot until cheek-pieces fitted and finished runner-up over 10f here last July; not seen then until making a winning return over 10f at Chelmsford last month; has been raised 5lbs for that, but this is first time he’s encountered ground that’s not fast.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days); career best (lto);
Minus: going (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (38) likely to improve this year, but has questions to answer on his return to turf at this level.
[b]Sharja Bridge [/b]4-9-0 (99) Dr 15
15 Sep Cl 3 Hcap (81 u) 8f gd Sand (95) 9/4 F 0.1l 2/13 off 95
Tracked leaders, progress to lead over 1f out, driven and edged left inside final furlong, stayed on well but headed last strides
Unraced as 2yo and just the 4 starts at 3yo, winning an 8.5f mdn at Nottingham in August and then only just denied on his hcap debut at Sandown the following month; stable in good enough form and has never been beaten more than 0.75l in his 4 starts to date.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); 232-day break; up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (36) likely to build on his 3yo promise and a contender in conditions that should suit.
Tricorn 4-9-6 (105) Dr 13
Unraced at 2yo, but completed a hat-trick of wins over 8f here in April last year and finished 3rd in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, but disappointed in a listed stks over 8f here in July and although subsequently gelded has not been seen since; may be helped by rise in trip, but long break may count against him off his high mark.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: going (?); 296-day break;
Verdict: (35) showed early season form last year, but high mark for his return to handicapping and not the strongest contender perhaps.
[b]Another Eclipse[/b] 4-8-4 (89) Dr 12
14 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 10f sf Donc (102) 5/2 Jt F 0.25l 2/4 off 88
Held up in rear, headway over 2f out, ridden and edged left over 1f out, driven to challenge on outer inside final furlong, kept on
Took a while to get off the mark, but managed at the fifth attempt in a 10f mdn at Brighton last July, before going on to make the frame in his subsequent 3 hcap starts in Cl 2, the last at Doncaster in September; gelded thereafter and blinkers refitted for his return, the first time since his debut; interesting jockey booking.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: up 1lb; 233-day break;
Verdict: (35) interesting that headgear is refitted and De Sousa takes the ride for the first time, a contender on his return.
Brorocco 5-8-9 (94) Dr 4
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (996 u) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (110) 17/2 2.85l 5/34 off 93
Raced stands' side, mid-division, headway 3f out, ridden and every chance in group 2f out, soon outpaced by winner but kept on final furlong
Reasonably consistent at around 10f and won a valuable handicap in a career best at Newbury last September before matching that effort when 5/34 in the Cambridgeshire a week later; not seen since and generally needs a run to get him going.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: up 1lb; 217-day break;
Verdict: (30) would need to show improvement off this mark, and may not be the strongest contender on his return.

A race in which 4yos have the best record (6/10) with 5yo and 6yo splitting the remainder. Confront in 2009 was the last horse to carry over 9-3 and Balty Boys in 2015 was the only other with a triple digit OR. For all that though, only 2016 winner Knight Owl started at greater than 12/1.

Of others, Dommersen showed promise back in 2016 and likely needed his return at Kempton at the end of March. However, it would take a leap of faith for me to support him today. Banditry is a multi-discipline winner and can go well fresh, but I can’t really see him making his mark in a handicap at this level.

Turning to my shortlist, meanwhile, I’m inclined to pass on Tricorn who looks a little high in the weights, while Brorocco may well just need the run. I’m also inclined to pass on Oasis Charm, not least given his low draw. Of the unexposed 4yos, Sharja Bridge and Another Eclipse look likely to be thereabouts, while of the older horses Third Time Lucky must sure win again one day and looks well handicapped here. Sharja Bridge appears to be strongly fancied, but is a little short in price for my linking. He may well win, but I’ll stick my neck out and go with Third Time Lucky from Another Eclipse with the pair holding off the raging favourite.

Goodwood 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (100) 7f sf – 15 Run

Last year – 323 (99) gd/fm – 15 ran
Gossiping 25/1 5-8-7 (86) Dr 14 by 0.5l from Make Music 16/1 4-8-10 (88) Dr 6
The Warrior 12/1 5-8-8 (86) Dr 7 was 0.55l 3rd

Love Dreams 4-9-7 (100) Dr 7
26 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (162 s) 7f std Chelm (96) 6/1 0.25l 1/8 off 95
Chased leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, held on well under pressure
Won both his 2yo starts, but just the single success at Newmarket in July from his 6 starts as a 3yo; likely needed his March return when down the field to Mister Music (-19) at Southwell, but only narrowly beaten by Mijack at Newmarket last month with Donncha (-3) , Medahim (+3), and Taurean Star (-8) being 4.5l, 4.55l, and 4.8l further back, respectively; gained consolation when dropped to a Cl 3 at Chelmsford 9 days later; has been raised 5lbs for that and may find difficulty in confirming Newmarket running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (9 days);
Minus: up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (45) in good form, but weight raise may find him out at this level and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Right Action 4-8-13 (92) Dr 5
25 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (97 u) 7f gd/sf Catt (90) 6/1 2.25l 1/15 off 85
Close up, led 4f out, ridden well over 1f out, stayed on strongly final furlong
Has really come into form this spring, winning both of his starts since returning to turf, the latest at Catterick last month in another career best; raised 7lbs for that, but could well be still improving, plus conditions should suit.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (10 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) another career best needed up in class and weight, but a possible contender.
Medahim 4-9-5 (98) Dr 10
17 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162 d) 7f gd/sf Nwmk (107) 9/1 6.05l 5/14 off 100
Slowly into stride, held up, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Beat Masham Star (+6) by 1.5l over 8f at Newmarket last July and finished 3rd over C&D here off 2lbs higher in early August; gelded in the between seasons and didn’t run badly from a slow start at Newmarket on his return last month before lack of condition told; meets runner-up and subsequent winner Love Dreams on 5lbs better terms and may have hopes of reversing that running.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (18 days); down 2lbs;
Minus:
Verdict: (38) lightly raced and could well have more to offer this year, a contender.
Squats 6-9-4 (97) Dr 2
Has never really fulfilled his 2yo promise, although did win a Cl 3 over 7f at Newbury last August; blew start on AW return at Lingfield at the end of March; conditions should suit and yard in good form, but wonder if he’s ready to do himself justice.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 1lb
Minus: course (?); 36-day break;
Verdict: (38) stable in good form, but not sure he’s a strong contender.
Masham Star 4-8-12 (91) Dr 1
Better horse on AW (2/7) than turf (2/28) and this has been confirmed in his latest 2 starts on turf having come back from the AW; however, is stable companion of top weight Love Dreams and appears to be the horse being backed.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (7 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: course; turf record;
Verdict: can’t honestly see him as a contender on turf.

Not a lot to go on, and it looks trappy indeed. However, I can’t fancy last year’s placed horses Make Music and The Warrior, nor do I see Donncha breaking a losing run that dates back to 2015, off this mark incidentally. Nor can I fancy Gallipoli on ground like this. So having drawn a rule through those, let’s add Masham Star and Squats from my shortlist. That leaves three, of which with more hope than expectation I’ll take Right Action from Medahim and Love Dreams.

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