Friday 18th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 18th May

Postby Devasteve » Fri May 18, 2018 12:41 pm

Well I got my slice of luck yesterday, so I wonder if it will continue today???

York 16.05 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (100) 10.5f gd/fm – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – 156 (100) gd/sf – 20 ran
Master Carpenter 12/1 6-9-2 (95) Dr 5 by 5l from Al Neksh 7/1 4-8-12 (91) Dr 3
Erik The Red 8/1 5-9-6 (99) was 9.86l 9th

Thundering Blue 5-9-0 (93) Dr 3
25 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310 d) 10f gd Eps 7/1 3l 5/10 off 93
held up last, switched right to outside and headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest finish
Generally progressive last year, recording a hat-trick of hcap wins over the summer and finishing a respectable 7/34 in the Cambridgeshire on his final outing; returned in the City & Suburban at Epsom last month and while never getting to the leaders was staying on from over a furlong out; likely to strip fitter today and has form on fast ground although wins have come on gd or softer.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (44) likely to have come on for Epsom run and a contender.
Banditry 6-9-2 (95) Dr 8
05 May Cl 2 HCap (310 u) 9f gd Nwmkt 20/1 5l 4/16 off 95
in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, nearest finish
Adaptable sort winning over 10f on the AW and at Newmarket last season as well as over hurdles at Southwell last October; perfectly respectable return in the former Suffolk Stks at Newmarket a fortnight back and likely to appreciate the extra furlong today; perhaps surprisingly, first visit to York but can handle the conditions.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (43) another likely to strip fitter today and a contender.
Valcartier 4-9-1 (94) Dr 12
02 May Cl 3 Hcap (70 u) 9.5f AW Wolv 3/1 1.75l 2/6 off 90
towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden and kept on final furlong
Showed promise early last season but after a disappointing at Newmarket in July was gelded; returned to make his AW debut at Wolverhampton at the start of the month where his running suggested that today’s extra furlong may well suit; that was a career best, but has been raised 4lbs and is up in class for his return to turf.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (16 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) likely to come on for Wolverhampton run, but this first attempt at this level off a 4lbs higher mark and thus not the strongest contender perhaps.
Master Carpenter 7-9-0 (93) Dr 9
Last year’s winner off a 2lbs higher mark, but outside of an October run here his form was abysmal; looked in need of the run on his return in the Newbury Spring Cup last month, but likely to be tuned up for this; however, I’m far from sure the fast ground will suit as he’s never won on it.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus:
Verdict: (36) fast ground rather dims his chances of completing the double even though he likes it around here, and thus not the strongest of contenders.
Capton 5-9-0 (93) Dr 2
18 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (90 u) 10f gd/sf Nott 8/1 2/14 off 87
made all, ridden over 1f out, edged left and joined inside final furlong, just held on (placed 2nd)
Generally progressive last season in lower class and only lost a hat-trick at season’s end in the Steward’s room despite a career best effort; likely to improve this year, but starts off a 6lbs higher mark up in class yet again; not sure how well he’ll go fresh, as while he ran well enough on his return last year there was a poor effort coming back from a 2-month break at Newbury in June; interesting that Moore is booked though..
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (31) likely to continue improvement this season, but lack of a run makes him a contender with questions.
Titus 4-8-13 (92) Dr 6
05 May Cl 5 Nov Stks (50 d) 10f gd/sf Weth 5/1 2l 1/8 off 87
pulled hard in touch, headway over 2f out, hung left over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, stayed on well
Bit of a gamble for the Spring Mile on his return, but never showed and weakened 2f out; made up for that at Wetherby at the start of the month when and impressive winner in a career best dropped to Cl 5 under today’s rider; has been raised 5lbs plus rockets back up in class, but likely there’s more to come; slight question about the ground though, as all his form has been on soft and finished stone last on his only start on gd.
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (13 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; going (?); course (?); up 5lbs; up 3 classes;
Verdict: (29) possibilities, but a questionable contender really.

One or two improvers among the veterans like last year’s winner Master Carpenter, although I think the ground’s gone against him completing the double despite him having a linking for the course. It’s also a bit of an ask for Titus I think, as he too may prefer softer ground, so he goes out as well. Valcartier and Thundering Blue are a pair of lesser exposed horses, as is Capton, although the latter lacks an outing this year, but the one that takes my eye is Banditry who must have some sort of shout. So another rushed analysis sees me stick my neck out to go with Banditry from Thundering Blue with perhaps Capton and Valcartier fighting it out for third.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Friday 18th May

Postby martinkil » Fri May 18, 2018 7:38 pm

The reverse forecast - and you managed to throw out the third and 4th - but at least they were contenders :)


Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests