Saturday 19th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 19th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 19, 2018 11:06 am

Thanks Martin, that's the best opening I've had to York in donkey's years! Very little to interest me this Saturday with only a single all-aged class 2 handicap in which a bunch make their season return, to which I’ve added a 3yo handicap – don’t normally touch 3yos till Ascot. I’ve probably used up all my luck for this week on Thursday and Friday anyway, and wouldn’t have bothered if it wasn’t Saturday!

Newbury 15.00 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 436 (101) 10f gd/fm – 11 Run

Last year – 436 (95) sf – 13 ran
Defoe 8/1 3-9-0 (88) Dr 1 by 1.25l from Mucho Applause 7/2 F 3-8-22(85) Dr 7

He’s Amazing 3-8-8 (88) Dr 9
06 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (129 u) 10f gd/fm Nwmk (93) 5/1 0.05l 1/8 off 82
Raced in main group towards centre, effort 3f out, headway to challenge under pressure 2f out, led and hung left entering final furlong, sustained duel with runner-up after, kept on well, just prevailed
Placed in both 2yo starts, but gelded between seasons; runner-up over 8f here last month, but got off the mark on hcap debut at the start of the month when raised to 10f at Newmarket on fast ground with favourite Dukhan (+11) 2.8l back in 3rd; has been raised 6lbs for that and is 5lbs worse off with Dukhan, but impressed with his determination in setting a career best.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (13 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 6lbs; up in class; trainer’s course record (3/127);
Verdict: (51) impressed with Newmarket win and a contender again.
Masaarr 3-9-2 (96) Dr 5
05 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (78 u) 8f gd Donc (89) 9/4 F 0.75l 1/7 off 88
Tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, ridden to chase winner just over 1f out, stayed on strongly final furlong, led last 50yds
Third on debut over 7f at Newmarket last October and won an 8f novice at Lingfield the following month; was only 3/8 in a 7f novice at Wolverhampton on his return in April, but made amends with a career best when favourite for his hcap debut at Doncaster over 8f, the front pair pulling 6l clear of the rest; has been raised 8lbs for that but the way he finished suggests that today’s trip should not be beyond him.
Plus: going (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) another improving sort that has trained on and likely more to come over this trip, a contender.
Dukhan 3-9-0 (94) Dr 2
06 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (129 u) 10f gd/fm Nwmk (93) 15/8 F 2.8l off 93
Taken down early, in main group towards centre, held up well in touch in midfield, effort over 2f out, pressing leaders and edged left over 1f out, soon lost whip, pressing leaders but keeping on same pace when squeezed for room inside final furlong
Showed promise in a pair of starts over 7f at Newmarket last July and then shed his mdn tag over 8f at Chelmsford in October; narrowly beaten on hcap debut over 10f at Newmarket last month and then finished 3rd to He’s Amazing (-11) over the same C&D at the start of the month off a 6lbs higher mark; meets HA on 5lbs better terms and sports first-time cheek-pieces today, so could be closer this time around with a clear run.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (39) weighted to be closer to He’s Amazing, and a contender to perhaps make the frame.
Chief Ironside 3-8-8 (88) Dr 1
09 May Cl 3 3yo-Mdn (118 u) 10.5f gd Chest 14/1 3l 1/10
Chased leader, led over 3f out, kicked on 2f out, clear 1f out, ran on well and in command after
Just the 3 starts and has improved with each run and looked impressive at Chester 10 days ago; now has a mark to start his hcap career and while this tougher, he’s shown distance holds no fears.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (10 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going; course; up in class; hcap debut;
Verdict: (37) improving sort who could perhaps make a mark on his hcap debut, a speculative contender.

Poet’s Prince is the only one to have already won at this level, but appears to be the Johnston second string to Communique who has yet to win on his four starts to date and was 4l adrift of Dubhe when trying this trip for the first time at Sandown lto. Stoute’s Mekong got off the mark over this trip in heavy ground at Leicester lto, but looks more likely to make his mark over further. Looking at my quartet, there’s a question mark about He’s Amazing and that’s the trainer’s record at Newbury. Even so I’m not sure that Dukhan will reverse their Newmarket running despite the fitting of cheek-pieces and thus will go with Masaarr from Chester winner Chief Ironside with He’s Amazing again finishing in front of Dubhe.

Newbury 17.25 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (105) 8f gd/fm – 10 Run

Last year – 249 (98) sf – 15 ran
Withernsea 12/1 6-8-10 (93) Dr 12 by 0.25l from Brigliadoro 20/1 6-8-7 (90) Dr 8

Ripp Orf 4-8-2 (86) Dr 2
12 May Cl 2 Hcap (654 u) 7f gd/fm Ascot (106) 20/1 0.25l 1/27 off 83
Took keen hold, held up in midfield far side, ridden and good progress over 1f out, switched left inside final furlong, strong run to lead last strides, 1st of 19 in group
Got up late last week to set a career best in taking the Victoria Cup at Ascot under today’s rider; runs off a 3lbs higher mark here, which is not excessive, but also returns to 8f over which trip he has yet to win; quick return against lesser opposition though.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: (54) fast-returning winner but up in trip today, which raises a question about his claim to be a strong contender.
Surrey Hope 4-8-12 (96) Dr 1
27 Jan Cl 3 Hcap (72 d) 8f AW Ling (95) 5/2 F 0.3l 3/12 off 95
Took keen hold, soon chasing leader, effort and every chance over 1f out, kept on well under pressure, no extra close home
Won 3 of 4 last season and a pair of placed efforts on the AW in January, setting successive career best efforts; first race since being gelded last month and fitted with a first-time hood; booking of Moore could be significant as he won on him in similar conditions at Salisbury last August; yet to win at this level, but has placed form on the AW.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course; up 1lb; up in class; 112-day break;
Verdict: (39) interesting returner in a first-time hood after having been gelded, and a possible contender.
Plutonian 4-8-8 (92) Dr 10
Won a fast ground mdn over 8f at Windsor last June and won over 10f in a career best in a Cl 2 on the AW at Chelmsford in November; impeded at the start on his return over 8f at Newmarket last month and that probably best ignored; likely to have come on for that too; not without chances.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (32 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (39) better form on AW to date, and need to see improvement on return before making him a strong contender.
Flaming Spear 6-9-7 (105) Dr 4
First start for Dean Ivory having left the Ryan yard at the start of the week; won a decent hcap on gd/sf in a career best at York last August, but disappointing in subsequent pair of starts; has been dropped 2lbs since then, but still 4lbs more than for win at York.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d);
Minus: course; 224-day break;
Verdict: (35) inclined to wait and see how he goes for Ivory, so not a contender for me.
Pouvoir Magique 4-8-4 (88) Dr 3
10 Nov Cl 4 Hcap (49 d) 8f AW Nwcs (85) 5/2 0.75l 1/14 off 85
Tracked leaders, pushed along to lead 2f out, ridden clear approaching final furlong, reduced advantage near finish but never in danger
Won mdn over 10f at Ayr last July but had break after disappointing at Newmarket later in the month; needed his return at Doncaster towards the end of October but looked the part when winning on the AW at Newcastle a fortnight later, albeit dropped to Cl 4; has only been raised 3lbs for that, plus has been gelded between the seasons; likely to be more to come this year, as this only his 6th start, plus stable in fine form.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); 190-day break;
Verdict: (30) potential contender if building on last win for in-form trainer.

Not an awful lot to go on as most are potential improvers and I may have erred in not including Commander Cole on my shortlist, as he’s likely to have come on from his first start since his 2yo days. First to be removed from the list are Flaming Spear on his first start for Dean Ivory on ground that’s plenty fast enough, and Plutonian who needs to show ability at this level on turf. There are questions too about the remaining trio who are drawn in the lowest three stalls. Pouvoir Magique is something of a ‘talking horse’ to date and is making a seasonal return, while Surrey Hope is having his first race since being gelded, and Ripp Orf steps back up to 7f after last week’s success at Ascot. While I feel sure that the winner will come from one of these three, which one is a quandary. So it is more in hope than expectation that I go with Ripp Orf from Surrey Hope and Pouvoir Magique just edging out Commander Cole.

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