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There is no "magic system"

Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:29 pm
by martinkil
The following post was made by Mike Salway on the Patternform facebook group which I thought was insightful enough to warrant reproduction here (with permission).

There is no "magic system" - horse racing is incredibly variable and there are so many factors that decides whether a horse wins or not

pattern form is just one way of looking at a race but you really have to look at races from multiple angles, including perceived odds value, which is where a bit of mathematics comes into it

You have to put all of that together to make money, and it's not easy

Like anything, the more you know about horse racing the better - and you only get to know it properly by watching racing, studying it, back-testing systems, trying out variables, reading, learning from others, you have to really understand horse racing and what it takes for a horse to win, otherwise you are just trying to hit treble 20 with a blindfold on

I can talk with a bit of authority because I have been semi-successful at picking horses to win, and I believe I am well on my way to making consistent profit but I have failed a LOT and I have kept going, and that is another key. You might get some early success and then it all goes pear-shaped, but being able to rebound from losses is a true test of character

The reason Martin is so good with his selections is he knows the game and he's failed lots (sorry Martin but it's probably true), you only learn by losing and then refining, only then may you get somewhere

it is really about gaining an edge, however small that edge is, and then playing that edge out in the markets to make any sort of money

Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:33 pm
by martinkil
Mike is of course quite correct in that for the first thiry years of my betting life I was a regular loser - I had successes but they didn't cover the losing runs. It's really only since I started Patternform, and soon after the advent of betting exchanges, that I've been able to make consistent profits

Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:18 pm
by gpnt
Thanks for putting that on your website Im curious to know if anyone has ever put together a filter system for trainers where you could simply filter the different types of courses and conditions this would surely be an awesome system as so often I follow stats for trainers shown in the racing post far from ideal though.

Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:05 pm
by philipg
Very simplistic but is a great filter is ran to figure. 6 months only using code. Flat/Jumps.

Note the higest rated horses. 2 Figures.

Then next filter 18 Months Ground and Distance today. Again top 2 ratings. Look for horses that figure on both filters.

Simple but effective. Look for big prices and back small stakes.

Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:03 pm
Hi Phil,

When you mention highest rated/top rated can you elaborate on what you mean please?

Top 2 rated on speed/ran to/ OR?

If you could please clarify that would be great, thank you.


Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:59 pm
by philipg
This a very simplistic approach Lee and a fast "Filter" Look at the cards and use the far right Ran To figures, use the Top 2 Figures for 6 months with no other filters except racing code Flat/Jumps. I personally look for clear selections that are a few points clear. Then go 18 months use the ground conditions today and filter the distance only. Good luck Lee. Small stakes on decent priced horses.

Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:54 pm
Thanks for your reply, I will have a look at that.

Re: There is no "magic system"

Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:25 pm
by Buzzit
Following on from the various musings above I think it is often helpful for newcomers to concentrate on understanding the horses with a starting SP lower than 10/1 as these horses win 80% of all races (with 1st and 2nd favourite making up half of that) There is not much point in trying to find a system that will give you both favourite and large price outsider winners all of the time..

Looking at 2year Ran to figures etc can certainly throw up the odd higher price winner on the jumps