Saturday 6th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 6th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 06, 2015 11:41 am

Not much luck yesterday and am not very confident today with a couple of big field handicaps. Again no time to check for typos!

Epsom 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap 616 (108) 5f gd – 20 Run

Last year – 623 (109) gd 19 ran
Caspian Prince (102.6) 9/1 5-9-0 (97) Dr 14 by 0.1l Seeking Magic (102.3) 7/1 6-8-11 (99) Dr 17
Steps (101.5) 6/1 F 6-9-12 (109) Dr 13 was 0.35l 4th
Barnet Fair (96.7) 25/1 6-8-4 (92) Dr 2 was 1.95l 6th
Monsieur Joe (96.4) 121/1 7-9-7 (104) Dr 9 was 2.05l 7th
Smoothtalkingrascal 10/1 4-9-9 (106) Dr 18 was 3.32l 11th
Free Zone 25/1 5-9-0 (100) Dr 10 was 7.64l last of 19

Steps (101.6/109): runs off 1lb lower mark than when 4th in last year’s renewal, though not as well drawn as last time round coming out of stall 5; never really going well on his return when L/7 to Robot Boy at Newbury; however, has been successful on second run back in 3 of the last 4 seasons and stable is in form.
Plus: class; going; distance; course (?); trainer form;
Minus: low draw; 50-day break;
Verdict: doesn’t quite meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender if getting a clear late run from his low draw.
Normal Equilibrium (98.6.109): winner in May last year but tailed off towards season end; returned with win on the AW at Chelmsford and was then runner-up to Robot Boy and Sylvanus on next 2 starts; however, didn’t look the part when finishing in midfield behind Monsieur Joe at York last weekend and remains 7lbs above career high winning mark; another suffering from a low draw.
Plus: class (?); going; distance; course (?); trainer form; recent run (7 days);
Minus: low draw;
Verdict: doesn’t meet the criteria to win today’s race and not a strong contender.
Monsieur Joe (96.5/109): early success for new stable when winning at York in mid-May last year and again showed his liking for the Knavesmire track when winning the Spring Sprint there last weekend; carries a 4lb penalty for that, which has him running off the same mark as when a close 7th in last year’s renewal here; drawn a couple of stalls lower this time round though coming out f stall 7, but certainly fit and in form, as is the stable.
Plus: class; going; distance; trainer form; recent form run (7 days);
Minus: course; low draw; 4lb penalty;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all of the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender if overcoming low draw.
Caspian Prince (91.6/109): just denied Seeking Magic last year off an 11lb lower mark, but showed he had retained his ability as a 6yo when beating Hototo at Meydan in February off 105; ran in Group races on his final 2 starts there, finishing down the field to Sole Power in the big sprint there at the end of March; not run since and just wonder if he might want the race.
Plus: class; going; distance; course;
Minus: 70-day break;
Verdict: meets all the criteria to win today’s race, but not the strongest contender to complete the double.
Perfect Muse (89.0/94); lightly raced for a 5yo sprinter making only her 12th start; progressed well last season winning 3 of 7 starts and ended her campaign by going down by 0.5l to Doc Hay (0) at Pontefract in October; decent enough effort on her return to finish 3/11 to Humidor who had the run of the race at Goodwood last month; runs off the same mark today and a useful claimer booked; up in class and first visit to Epsom, but has a favoured high draw and is one of 2 fancied runners from the Cox stable.
Plus: going; distance; recent form run (35 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender.

Looking at the way the race should pan out, as last year Caspian Prince is very likely to be in the van and Sylvanus is another from a double digit berth that likes to be up with the pace. Of those drawn low, meanwhile, Chiclet, Monumental Man and Secret Missile all like to force the pace. While I do remember Dandy Nicholls being successful with an entry from stall 1, in the main those drawn low have not been in the picture. That means the only ones on my shortlist that aren’t nullified are Caspian Prince and Perfect Muse. Coupling a double digit draw with those who have recorded speed figures this season worthy of winning this race, Silvanus, Confessional, Humidor, Desert Law and Perfect Muse qualify. Besides Perfect Muse, the one to take from these may be Confessional who comes from the best trial race, the Boodles Diamond Hcap, which has provided 4 winners in the last 10 years. So trying to come up with some selections I’d go with Perfect Muse from Caspian Prince and Confessional.

Trends approach:
Plenty to go on, but we’re mainly looking for 4yo to 6yo drawn in stall 8 or higher than have had 1-4 starts this season, the last within the past 35 days. Experience is normally a premium with at least 15 hcap starts required, winning at least 2. Altogether I have 13 categories for a potential total of 111 pts and these came out best:
105 Normal Equilibrium (see above): fails on no win over 6f (borderline draw in 8 too)
103 Duke Of Firenze: fails on not placed 1 to 3 this season
103 Confessional: fails on age (though 8yo has won)
99 Free Zone: fails on OR and not placed 1 to 3 this season
97 Humidor: fails on age and has won in Cl 1

From this approach I guess I’d chance Normal Equilibrium and Confessional.

Epsom 17.15 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (99) 12f gd – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 187 (100) gd 15 ran
Miss Marjurie (92.6) 7/1 4-8-04 (86) Dr 5 by 2.5l from Stomachion 7/2 F 4-8-10 (89) Dr 2
Blue Surf (88.8) 14/1 5-9-4 (97) Dr 8 was 3l 3rd
Mirsaale 14/1 4-9-7 (100) Dr 6 was 30.85l 12th

Buthelezi (91.3/106): made all over 14f at Musselburgh on his return in April, but unable to repeat the feat over the Chester Cup distance; drops some way in trip today, but likely to get his way in front again as only Mirsaale is a recognised front-runner; stable in good form too.
Plus: class; going; distance; trainer form; recent run (31 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a contender if handling the course.
Montaly (88.7/105): decent season as a 3yo winning at Leicester and Haydock and has been gelded in between seasons; ran as if in need of the race when 5/6 to Pinolo over14f on the AW at Chelmsford early last month; likely to strip fitter today dropped back in trip and fitted with a first-time hood.
Plus: class; going; distance; recent run (31 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender if handling the course.
Oasis Fantasy (86.1/107): won over this distance at Goodwood last June and has started this season in good form with placed efforts at Ascot and Goodwood the last twice; raised 5lbs for his latest effort over 14f at Goodwood, but maybe will appreciate the drop in trip.
Plus: class (?); going; distance; recent form run (14 days);
Minus: course (?); raised 5lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a definite contender if handling the course.
Highland Castle (73.0/85): smart early in his career but was on a long losing run when making the most of his falling mark to score over 14f under today’s rider at Salisbury last month; has been raised 8lbs for that, however, plus ground likely not as fast today.
Plus: class; going; distance; trainer form;
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race and perhaps not the strongest contender.

Very rushed with this, but believe that Buthelezi may be able to poach enough of a lead to hold off Oasis Fantasy and Montaly.

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