Saturday 14th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 14th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:43 am

Managed to cobble together some sort of answer to the problems for today (and hopefully onwards) so let’s hope we can get lucky!

Newmarket 13.40 Cl 2 Hcap 747 (111) 7f gd/fm – 20 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 747 (111) gd/fm 18 Ran
Above The Rest 12/1 6-8-10 (101) Dr 8 by 0.5l from Sir Dancealot 16/1 3-8-12 (106) Dr 14
Von Blucher 33/1 4-8-13 (97) Dr 16 was 3.25l 6th

Mubtasim 4-9-8 (106) Dr 6
12 May Listed Stks (210 u) 7f gd/fm Hayd 9/4 F 0.75l 2/6 off 105
last to break, held up in rear, headway on outside over 2f out, driven to challenge from over 1f out, ran on, held towards finish
Thrice a winner at 2yo, best effort as 3yo was when 3rd in the Jersey Stks at Royal Ascot; gelded between seasons and looked to need the race on return when 3/6 to Lancelot Du Lac over 6f at Chelmsford, but recorded a career best when runner-up Tabarrack in a listed stks at Haydock in May; swerved Ascot and makes his hcap debut today off 106.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto; down in class;
Minus: 63-day break; up 1lb; hcap debut;
Verdict: (50) hcap debutant, but has a lot of pluses and a contender.
Makzeem 5-9-5 (103) Dr 8
Twice a winner over C&D here last season under Ryan Moore, but showed nothing in a pair of listed class starts in May this year; perhaps a short break and drop in class will help, not to mention a change back to the ‘winning’ jockey; however, noted that both last season’s wins here came on gd/sf.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: no form this year; 8lbs above last winning mark
Verdict: (45) chance on last year’s form, but not a contender on this
Gilgamesh 4-9-2 (100) Dr 13
Not beaten far when 7/28 in the Wokingham lto, but lacked the pace to make a mark; far better judged on earlier over 7f, leading group on the ‘wrong side’ when 7/37 to Ripp Orf in the Victoria Cup and then recording a career best when taking a competitive 7f hcap at York from So Beloved.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (21 days); up in trip;
Minus: course;
Verdict: (43) not the greatest draw, but still a contender.
Spanish City 5-8-7 (91) Dr 15
16 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (250 u) 7f gd/fm York 2/1 F 3l 4/12 off 91
held up in touch, headway 3f out, effort and every chance 2f out, ridden over 1f out, driven and kept on same pace inside final furlong
Handicap wins at Newcastle and Doncaster sandwiched a strong effort when 6/37 to Ripp Orf in the Victoria Cup, 0.75l in front of Gilgamesh (+1); since then has finished a credible 4/12 at York; weighted to finish ahead of Gilgamesh again, although the latter was drawn on the wrong side at Ascot.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (41) should again run close with Gilgamesh and another contender.
Mukalal 4-8-13 (97) Dr 4
Three time a winner last season from 7f to 8.5f in lower class and had a wind operation in January; made his return in the Hunt Cup at Ascot where after failing to settle he made a forward move over a furlong out before weakening in the final furlong; drop back to 7f likely to suit and looks well enough drawn down low; could well return to form, although has to prove he can win on this ground.
Plus: distance; trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (24 days);
Minus: class; going; course;
Verdict: (31) may be able to get into the picture, but not the strongest contender perhaps.

Past trends suggest we’re looking for 4 to 6yos who’ve had 3-6 runs this season, the last within 40 days when they either won or placed, or ran in a hcap at Royal Ascot. Moreover, only one of the past 11 winners has carried less than 9-0. Taking those factors into account, Gilgamesh seems to tick most, although I’m a little worried that he has a middle draw and may get squeezed out of it. There may not be much between him and Spanish City, although the latter has yet to prove he can win at this level. Mukalal is a chancy selection for me and I’ll pass on this occasion, while I worry somewhat about Makzeem and fast ground and prefer the chances of Mubtasim. All things being considered I’m inclined to go for Mubtasim from perhaps Gilgamesh with Makzeem and Spanish City contesting the minor places.

York 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 1245 (106) 10.5f gd/fm – 20 Run (19 at best)
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1235 (109) gd – 20 ran
Ballet Concerto 8/1 4-9-3 (102) Dr 8 by 0.75l from Big Country 7/1 4-8-7 (99) Dr 15
Master Carpenter 12/1 6-9-3 (105) Dr 4 was 5.17l 12th

Dash Of Spice 4-9-7 (103) Dr 12
22 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560 u) 12f gd/fm Ascot 7/2 F 2.25l 1/17 off 98
in touch, hampered over 9f out, headway over 3f out, led approaching final furlong, stayed on well
Lightly raced, but highly progressive this term winning over 12f at Epsom before running out a clear-cut winner of the Duke of Edinburgh at Ascot; carries a 5lbs penalty for that but still below his future mark; however, he is dropping back in trip and may better over further now, plus he‘s lost his talisman jockey today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (22 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 5lbs penalty; drop in distance;
Verdict: (53) progressive Ascot winner and has to be considered a contender.
Brorocco 5-9-0 (96) Dr 6
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (160 s) 10f gd/fm Nwmk 7/1 3.25l 3/8 off 96
held up in 6th, headway towards far rail over 2f out, 3rd and one pace final furlong
Twice a winner over 10f last year, but less productive this, although career best when runner-up at Epsom in early June and ran to form at Newmarket lto.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (15 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (43) not beyond his best form, but will need to step up on recent runs to be a prime contender.
Appeared 6-9-7 (103) Dr 20
22 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560 u) 12f gd/fm Ascot 8/1 4l 4/17 off 103
chased leaders, leaders, led over 1f out, headed approaching final furlong, no extra closing stages
Won over 12f on his return at Ascot last year and a bold enough effort to finish 4th to Dash Of Spice (-5) and Sir Chauvelin on his return in the Duke of Edinburgh this year; however, a 6yo now and return to a trip he hasn’t tackled since 2016 not necessarily a plus; neither is stall 20.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (22 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (41) unlikely to reverse Ascot running with Dash Of Spice and not the strongest contender.
What’s The Story 4-9-0 (96) Dr 1
20 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1090 u) 8f gd/fm Ascot 33/1 2.75l 4/30 off 98
mid-division in centre headway chasing leaders over 2f out, chased winner entering final furlong, no extra and lost 2 places close home
Won over 8f under today’s rider at Newcastle in last month before denying his price to finish 4th with another career best in first-time cheek-pieces in the Hunt Cup, being done for pace close home; runs off a 2lbs lower mark today (plus his rider’s 3lbs) and appeared to stay 10f in the Zetland.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (24 days); career best lto; down 2lbs;
Minus: up in trip;
Verdict: (41) relatively unexposed and a contender if staying out the trip
Thundering Blue 5-9-4 (100) Dr 5
Left with far too much to do in the Duke of Edinburgh lto being ridden as if unsure of the trip; had previously set a career best when a ready winner over C&D here on fast ground in May; no surprise if he bounced back today, although is off a 7lbs higher mark.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (22 days); down in trip;
Minus:
Verdict: (40) conditions more conducive than at Ascot and a definite contender.
Across Dubai 4-8-13 (95) Dr 7
A winner over this trip at Haydock last year, was only beaten by 0.5l when 3/8 over 10f at Chelmsford last month; fitted with first-time cheek-pieces today and features a jockey who at one time was no stranger to big race winners riding for a trainer who does well up north.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (24 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (35) unexposed sort (8th start overall) who could be a contender.

With Educate in 2016 being the only winner aged above 5yo since 1969, I’m passing on those 6yo or older; bye-bye Appeared! Although double digit draws have been to the fore in recent years, the rest on my shortlist all buck that trend. Swiftly cutting them down, Brorocco’s form this season raises questions, while Dash Of Spice (dropping back) and What’s The Story (stepping up) both have distance questions. Thundering Blue certainly doesn’t and Across Dubai isn’t out of it. So hoping I can get those four in some sort of order, I’m going for Thundering Blue from Across Dubai with Dash Of Spice and What’s The Story fighting out the minor place.

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