Saturday 21st July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 21st July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:09 am

Still persevering, but not with much luck this month. See if it will change today!

Newbury 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (106) 16.5f gd/fm – 18 Run
3yo = 15lbs wfa allowance

Almoghared 3-8-6 (105) Dr 4
20 Jun Gr 2 3yo-Stks (1130 u) 14f gd/fm Ascot 12/1 7.5l 4/12
took keen hold, held up in touch, lost place 5f out, rallied on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, ridden in 3rd over 1f out, weakened final 100 yards
Unraced as 2yo, promising runner-up over 12f on hv at Salisbury in April before landing the odds over 12f on fast ground at Chepstow the following month; not disgraced when 4th in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in yet another career best and makes his hcap debut today.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (31 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); hcap debut;
Verdict: (39) trip’s a question, but a likely contender if staying.
Amazing Red 5-9-6 (102) Dr 6
Back to his best under Dettori when beating Golden Wolf (-4) by 3.5l in a career best over 14f at Newmarket in early June; failed to reach that level under a penalty in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle at the end of the month, being beaten from a furlong out; although he did win over 16f at Kempton in early May I remain to be convinced that 16f or more is his best trip at this level.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (21 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (38) question as to whether he actually gets this trip in this class, so not the strongest contender perhaps.
Coeur De Lion 5-8-9 (91) Dr 2
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560 u) 20f gd/fm Ascot 11/2 4.75l 6/19 off 91
mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer
Won on the AW earlier in the year and decent efforts back on turf since, the latest when 6th to Lagostovegas in the Ascot Stks, just 2.5l back of Stratum (+1) in 3rd; with the latter having been raised 2lbs, should be closer this time round.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (32 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (38) not without a chance as has shown he can handle conditions, a contender.
Stratum 5-8-12 (94) Dr 1
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560 u) 20f gd/fm Ascot 10/1 2.25l 3/19 off 92
mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders inside final furlong, nearest finish
Formerly with Gosden, won a mdn hurdle at Galway on his first start for his new yard last September; just two more hurdle starts since but showed he’s no slouch on the Flat either by putting in a career best to finish 3rd to Lagostovegas in the Ascot Stks in June, 2.5l ahead of Coeur De Lion (-1) in 6th; has been raised 2lbs for that, but looks like a contender again in a first-time hood.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (32 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: (37) looks to have promise as a stayer and a contender.
Percy’s Word 4-8-9 (91) Dr 5
04 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (90 d) 16f AW Kemp 9/1 0.25l 2/11 off 89
chased leaders, challenged inside final furlong, led well inside final furlong, headed last strides
Lightly-raced 4yo (6th start) who won over 16f at Kempton last August and then not disgraced when upped to this level over an inadequate 14f at York in October; recorded another career best when only just denied at Kempton at the start of the month on first run since October; has been raised 2lbs for that, plus is up in class, but not without possibilities.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (17 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (35) improving young stayer and a potential contender.
Quloob 4-9-2 (98) Dr 8
Improved from 2yo to 3yo, winning 3 of his 4 starts at up to 12f and finishing runner-up over 14f on his final outing in a career best on his final outing in mid-August; by no means disgraced when 5/13 to Amazing Red (-5) over 14f on his return at Newmarket in early June; enjoys a 9lbs swing in the weights and likely to have come on for that, so no surprise were he to reverse that running in first-time cheek-pieces, providing he gets the trip, of course.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (42 days);
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?);
Verdict: (30) not without chances, but question about trip perhaps and thus not tyhe strongest contender.

No past trends to go on here, so no help there. Some of the less-exposed sorts such as Buzz pose questions in regard to trip and thus have been passed over. I have questions in the same vein about Quloob too, while Amazing Red has yet to convince that 16f or more in Cl 2 is exactly ideal. The trip is, of course, a big question with Almoghared, but coming from a strong stable with a light weight he makes the final list alongside Coeur De Lion, Stratum and Percy’s Word and it’s from this quartet that I expect the winner to emerge. With the price on Stratum a little tight, I’ll go with the 3yo Almoghared from Stratum and Coeur De Lion.

Newmarket 16.00 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (102) 8f gd/fm – 9 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 280 (103) sf 13 ran
Ballard Down 16/1 4-9-0 (93) Dr 12 by 3.5l from Master Of The World 5/1 6-9-5 (103) Dr 14
Masham Star 11/2 3-9-0 (101) Dr 9 was 7l 4th

Ripp Orf 4-9-7 (92) Dr 7
13 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (130 d) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 6/1 0.1l 1/7 off 89
in rear, pushed along over 2f out, plenty to do 2f out, ridden and ran on strongly towards stand side to lead final strides
Having a fine season and after winning the Victoria Cup under Hayley, was only just denied over this trip at Newbury; will forget his Epsom disaster when nothing went right, and he showed that to be false when swooping late to deny a promising 3yo over C&D here last weekend in yet another career best; has been raised 3lbs for that but is in fine form and Hayley gets on well with him.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (57) in form and should go close again, a strong contender
Keeper’s Choice 4-8-2 (73) Dr 1
14 Jun Cl 4 Hcap (70 u) 8f gd/fm Newb 12/1 1l 1/14 off 70
in touch, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead narrowly inside final furlong, kept on well
Lightly-raced sort who has returned as an improved model at 4yo, being narrowly beaten on her return and then taking a Cl 4 at Newbury in another career best with perhaps more in hand that the official margin; runs off a 3lbs higher mark today, but could well improve again on only her 8th start overall.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (37 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; up 3lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (44) improving filly who may take the step up in class in her stride, a contender.
Masham Star 4-9-7 (92) Dr 5
Runs off a 9lbs lower mark than when 4th in last year’s renewal and as usual has had a busy season with 11 starts to date already, the latest when finishing midfield in the Bunbury here last weekend; did win a Cl 2 over 8f at Windsor off 89 at the end of June before finishing a creditable 4/15 in the Coral Challenge at Sandown a fortnight back; not impossible that he could finish thereabouts, but it’s hard to pinpoint when Johnston horses are on a going day.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (7 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (38) has won off higher marks, but not the strongest contender perhaps
Vintager 3-9-9 (102) Dr 4
Only win was over 7f here on his debut, but has some creditable efforts to his name this season, the latest when 4/16 in the Hampton Court Stks at Royal Ascot; will be suited by the drop back in trip and has to be considered returned to hcap company.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (30 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (34) looks a promising 3yo and a contender returned to handicapping

Of the others, Penwortham was removed from consideration because he appears to need courses with bends, and that you won’t find on Newmarket’s straight mile. The dangerous one here is Vintager, of course, but he remains a horse with a question until he actually wins again, especially on fast ground. Masham Star will probably win because I’m passing on him – Johnston horses have a habit of doing that to me! However, I’m going with Ripp Orf from bottom weight Keeper’s Choice with Vintager pushing them hard.

Ripon 16.05 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (100) 12f gd/fm – 14 Run (13 at best)
3yo = 11lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 156 (98) sf – 8 ran
Mukhayyam 4/1 5-9-4 (88) Dr 4 by 3.5l from Fleeting Visit 3/1 F 4-9-0 (84) Dr 1

Aasheq 5-9-9 (95) Dr 2
13 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (90 d) 11.5f gd Chest 15/8 F 1.5l 2/7 off 91
led, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, soon switched right, kept on
Won 3 of his 5 starts this season at up to 11f, the latest when taking the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle last month; unable to claim the four-time though as had to give best to
Rainbow Rebel at Chester last weekend despite recording a career best; had earlier beaten Mukhayyam (+12) over 10.5f there back in May.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (46) has to prove he can do it at this level, but a contender
Mukhayyam 6-9-3 (89) Dr 12
Took last year’s renewal off a 1lb lower mark, but had previously won at York whereas this year he finished 10.5l 4/6 in the York race; did take an apprentice hcap there prior to that, finishing 5l ahead of Final (+4); however, on balance difficult to see him featuring this year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (8 days); down 1lb;
Minus:
Verdict: (42) not in same form as last year and a doubtful contender
Final 6-9-4 (90) Dr 9
14 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (130 u) 12f gd/fm Nwmkt 7/2 2.25l 2/5 off 90
tracked leaders, driven 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to take 2nd inside final furlong, no impression with winner
Better effort last weekend, but losing streak extends back to March 2017, plus was well beaten by Mukhayyam (-4) at York at the end of June and is only 3lbs better off today for 5l; jockey booking suggests he’s stable’s second string.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: losing run of 11;
Verdict: (41) hard to see him as a strong contender, but he is a Johnston entry.
Sofia’s Rock 4-10-0 (100) Dr 4
Could only finish in midfield in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock lto, but had previously been in good form being an easy Haydock winner in mid-June and narrowly beaten at Windsor at month end; conditions suit and this nowhere as demanding as the ONC.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (32) yet to win at this level but a contender.

Difficult to find any strong contenders here on current form, but Aasheq from Sofia’s Rock would be my best guess in a race where nothing would surprise me!

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