Saturday 18th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 18th August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:03 am

Well at least this week I’ve got a pair of handicaps with enough runners, although only just at Doncaster. Actually last week turned out better than I could have hoped, so can’t complain. I love Ripon, both the town and the racecourse, but that doesn’t make this big sprint any easier – let’s hope I’ve got things right today.

Ripon 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 467 (107) 6f gd – 20 Run

Last year – 467 (109) gd – 19 ran
Mattmu 25/1 5-9-1 (100) Dr 10 by 0.75l from Pipers Note 8/1 7-9-0 (99) Dr 3
Shanghai Glory 8/1 4-9-2 (101) Dr 15 was 0.77l 3rd
Flying Pursuit 10/1 4-8-8 (96) Dr 13 was 2.52l 5th
Growl 5/1 F 5-9-7 (109) Dr 18 was 4.62l 9th
Al Qahwa 14/1 4-8-13 (98) Dr 20 was 4.72l 10th

Golden Apollo 4-9-2 (99) Dr 9
28 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (310 u) 6f sf York 4/1 F 0.25l 2/14 off 94
in rear far side, switched left and headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, ran on, held towards finish
Won over this distance 3 times last season on gd/sf to gd/fm, so should have no problem with today’s ground conditions; has run well enough without winning this season and put in a career best when runner-up to stable companion Flying Pursuit (0) on sf at York 3 weeks ago, the pair coming well clear of the rest; was also 3rd to FP (-1) over C&D last September; has been raised 5lbs for latest effort and is 1lb better off with FP, plus cheek-pieces fitted for the first time today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: (48) returned to form at York lto and looks to be a strong contender.
Kimberella 8-9-8 (109) Dr 16
05 Aug List Stks (210 d) 6f Chest 4/1 0.25l 1/8 off 105
soon tracked leaders on inside, driven over 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, stayed on to lead narrowly well inside final furlong, all out
Not getting any younger but back to form at Chester a fortnight back when just holding off Major Jumbo in listed company; was runner-up here in the 2015 renewal, and won over C&D the following year when still with Nicholls yard; that was his last hcap win, however, and he runs off a 5lbs higher mark, plus not well drawn out wide.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days); down in class;
Minus: up 4lbs; high draw; previously won in Cl 1;
Verdict: (48) weight and draw against him being a strong contender today.
Shanghai Glory 5-9-0 (97) Dr 2
11 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (160 d) 7f gd/sf Nwmkt 8/1 0.75l 2/6 off 95
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish
Not the most consistent, but won a listed stks at the Curragh 2 years ago and was a credible 3rd in last year’s renewal here when drawn on the wrong side off a 4lbs higher mark; decent effort at Newmarket last weekend, but runs off 2lbs higher today back over 6f.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); down in trip;
Minus: up 2lbs; last win 2 years ago; previously won in Cl 1;
Verdict: (43) could be fancied on last year’s form, but too inconsistent to be a leading contender.
Pipers Note 8-9-1 (98) Dr 1
06 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (110 u) 6f gf Ripon 5/1 0.75 1/7 off 94
held up, headway on outside halfway, chased leaders went 2nd entering final furlong, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
Loves this course and racked up 6th and 7th C&D victories here on last 2 starts; has been raised 4lbs for latest success, but still 1lb lower than when runner-up in last year’s renewal – was 4th in 2016 off 95 as well; likely to be thereabouts again, although slight worry about getting a clear run coming out of stall1.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) can never be ignored here and a contender.
Growl 6-9-2 (99) Dr 4
04 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1560 u) 6f gd/fm Good 9/1 1.5l 3/26 off 99
mid-division towards far side, headway 2f out, not clear run and switched right over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, not reach leading pair
Has no luck in the Stewards luck, although once more ran with utmost credit and reignited faith that he’ll win one of these ‘big ones’ someday; runs off the same mark today; noted though that he still has a little to find with Flying Pursuit and Golden Apollo on York running prior to Goodwood; while it’s getting on for 2 years since last win – a listed stks at Doncaster – he has run with credit on occasions and again deserves consideration.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: previously won in Cl 1;
Verdict: (38) has to be considered a contender based on Goodwood effort.
Teruntum Star 6-9-2 (99) Dr 15
Won the consolation race here off 91 last year before going on to beat Spring Loaded (+3) by 1.75l at York 8 weeks later; has rather struggled with raised mark since, but is now back down to only 1lb higher than at York; however, does have a high draw to overcome, plus is coming back from a 2-month break.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 2lbs;
Minus: 77-day break;
Verdict: (38) too many questions on this year’s running to be considered a major contender.

It looks as if we have drying ground for the sprint in honour of Ripon’s patron saint, St. Wilfrid. Not a lot to go in regard to age, although no horse older than 7yo has won this century. Meanwhile, winners of the last 12 renewals have all carried 8-9 to 9-6, running off ORs in the 92 to 100 range. Other points to note are that horses coming from races at Goodwood, Ripon and Newmarket have fared well, as have those drawn in stalls 1 to 11. It might also be worthy of note that last year’s winner Mattmu was the first to triumph having previously won in Cl 1.

Pruning my shortlist, Kimberella has age, weight, draw and previous Cl 1 win as negatives and is the first to go. Teruntum Star won last year’s consolation, but has rather struggled this season and coming back from a break with a high draw is another one to go. Shanghai Glory has also won a Cl 1, but that was almost two years ago and while he ran well in last year’s renewal his efforts since have been inconsistent at best, and thus he’s another one to exit stage left. High draws were among the reasons that the likes of Flying Pursuit, Gunmetal and Marie of Lyon didn’t make the initial list. My remaining trio of Golden Apollo, Pipers Note and Growl are not without questions, either but all are drawn low to middle. I am a little worried about Pipers Note in stall 1, plus he is a 9yo, but given his record here he cannot be ignored. Nor for that matter can Growl who should turn out best of Fahey’s quartet. However, the one they all have to beat in my book is Golden Apollo who is taken to see off the luckless Growl and veteran Pipers Note.

Doncaster 15.25 Cl 2 Hcap 125 (100) 7f gd/fm – 11 Run (8 at best)

Last year – 125 (99) gd – 10 ran
Bertiewhittle 12/1 9-8-11 (91) Dr 1 by 0.25l from Qeyaadah 8/1 4-8-10 (85) Dr 10
Normandy Barriere 8/1 5-9-4 (96) Dr 12 was 2.55l 5th

Victory Angel 4-9-5 (97) Dr 11
18 Jul Cl 2 Claim Hcap (190 d) 6df gd/fm Yarm 6/4 F 1l 3/5 off 97
in touch, headway to lead 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra
Shed his mdn tag as a 2yo over 6f here in 2016 and twice a winner in hcap company last year; showed promise on his return over 6f at Newmarket in May, but has disappointed on his next 2 starts; may do better for being stepped up in trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (31 days);
Minus: up in trip;
Verdict: (50) yet to win at this trip and a contender with a question or two.
Breanski 4-8-7 (85) Dr 9
28 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (160 u) 7f AW Nwcs 17/2 0.75l 1/12 off 81
held up in rear, headway over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well
A horse on the move for having left O’Meara for Meehan in May, he was on his travels again after winning over 8f at Yarmouth in June, landing up in Jedd O’Keeffe’s yard the following month; didn’t take him long to reward his new connections as he made light of the drop back to 7f in setting yet another career best on the AW at Newcastle, his second win there; has won on fast ground on turf though and worth considering off just 4lbs higher, although reservations about the jockey.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (46) proven at distance and a possible contender despite reservations about jockey.
Normandy Barriere 6-9-3 (95) Dr 4
11 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (100 u) 6f gd/fm Red 7/4 F 0.5l 2/11 off 92
held up towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on and went 2nd well inside final furlong, not trouble winner
Runs off 1lb lower mark than when 5th in last year’s renewal and having had wind surgery during the summer has returned to form the last twice; however, has yet to win over 7f and one suspects that 6.5f is about the limit of his stamina; nevertheless, is still 1lb below last winning mark, although that was in May last year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) question about trip, but in form and a possible place contender.
Big Storm Coming 8-8-10 (88) Dr 10
03 Aug Cl 4 Hcap (60 d) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 7/2 11.5l 1/9 off 83
tracked leaders, ridden to lead entering final furlong, soon hung right, ran on
Recorded a career best in a Cl 4 at Newmarket lto as an 8yo, his second success in a row; up 5lbs for that and now only has a 3lbs claimer aboard; now doubt he’s in the form of his life, but this is a lot tougher as he’s never even run above Cl 4.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (15 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (41) in good form, but likely an outclassed contender here.
Muntadab 6-9-8 (100) Dr 3 N/R
14 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (750 u) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 20/1 3.75l 7/18 off 100
led centre group, ridden and headed inside final 2f, kept on same pace, no impression inside final furlong
Twice a winner last season and has been running well enough in hcaps this time round, not being disgraced in the Bunbury lto; previously had run well at York, again on fast ground, whereas his best from had been on gd or softer; this marks a drop in class.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (35 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (36) not without a chance dropped in class and a contender.

This looks fraught with danger as neither Victory Angel nor Normandy Barriere have ever won over 7f, which is a specialist distance. That raises major questions for me and I think I’ll look elsewhere, although with Muntadab being withdrawn – presumably for the ground – it won’t be easy. Big Storm Coming has, plus he’s in the form of his life, but he is an 8yo who has never run above Cl 4, so there are questions there. Breanski looks to be a 4yo on the move, both in stable and his form this season. He certainly has the opportunity to take another step forward here, but the jockey rather worries me as he doesn’t have the best record. Still, I’d be tempted to go with Breanski from possibly Big Storm Coming.

Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests