Thursday 23rd August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 23rd August

Postby Devasteve » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:59 am

Again a small field winner on Saturday to make up for my disappointment in the Ripon sprint. This is my only mid-week look at York and things looked good until I got home and discovered that Seniority is now a N/R. No time to re-jig my calculations, so fingers crossed I’m somewhere close.

York 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 529 (106) 8f gd/fm – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 529 (109) gd/sf – 17 ran
Flaming Spear 10/1 5-9-2 (101) Dr 4 by 1.75l from Qassem 10/1 4-8-13 (98) Dr 5
Firmament 12/1 5-9-10 (109) Dr 6 was 2l 3rd
Baraweez 20/1 7-8-10 (95) Dr 8 was 3.75l 4th
Bravery 20/1 4-9-0 (99) Dr 1 was 4.87l 7th
Mythical Madness 33/1 6-9-1 (100) Dr 17 was 6.87l 10th

Seniority 4-9-8 (104) Dr 14 N/R
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (930 d) 8f gd/fm Good 9/2 Jt F 0.5l 1/17 off 98
held up in mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led inside final furlong, edged right ran on well
Progressive 4yo who returned to win his first 2 starts at Chelmsford this term before being made favourite for the Royal Hunt Cup, but could only finish 8/30 to Settle Bay and Afaak (+7) from the outside stall; bounced back in the Golden Mile at Goodwood earlier this month though when joint favourite, coming with a strong run inside the final furlong to be in command late on to record a career best in beating Poet’s Society (-5) and Original Choice (-1) by 0.5l and 0.75l, respectively; has been raised 6lbs for that, but could well have more improvement in him and is again Ryan Moore’s choice of mount.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (20 days); career best lto;
Minus; course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: (54) appears to be still improving and a strong contender if double digit draw no inconvenience.
Afaak 4-9-8 (104) Dr 11
31 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (470 d) 10f gd Good 8/1 3.75l 4/15 off 104
tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, soon lost place, switched left 2f out, ran on final 100 yards, went 4th last strides
Winner of the Hambleton over C&D here in May off 97 and then runner-up to Settle For Bay in the Royal Hunt Cup; perhaps surprisingly, targeted the 10f hcap at Goodwood where he was 4/15 to Alfarris with Original Choice (-7) 2l ahead in 3rd; runs off the same mark today and likely to be better suited by the drop back in trip, although not certain to reverse Goodwood running with OC on only 3lbs better terms.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days); drop in trip;
Minus:
Verdict: (49) course, distance and conditions suit and Crowley back in the saddle, a possible contender.
Get Knotted 6-9-1 (97) Dr 6
28 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (160 s) 7f sf York 9/4 0.5l 1/7 off 95
last to break, in rear, niggled along 4f out, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, led inside final furlong, just pushed out towards finish
Is becoming something of a York specialist as on his latest success here he was winning the race for the third year in a row; has been raised just 2lbs for that, but it should be noted that the majority of his success of late has come over 7f, his only wins over 8f coming back in 2015/16; moreover, while he’s only been raised 2lbs for his latest success here, this is a far greater task.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: up 2lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: (40) not sure 8f at this level his forte and nit the strongest contender perhaps.
Reach High 4-9-0 (96) Dr 19
19 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (70 d) 7f gd/fm Donc 9/4 F 0.75l 2/8 off 94
held up mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, ridden to lead narrowly inside final 2f, kept on under pressure final furlong, headed towards finish, no extra
Very lightly raced, but showed promise at 2yo winning at Ascot on his 2nd start in May 2016; not seen then until winning a Cl 2 Hcap over 8f at Kempton last October; was a well-beaten 3/10 in a 8f hcap in the Gulf in early February and gelded later in the month; given the break, probably ran well enough in recording a career best at Doncaster last month and should come on for that.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto; up in trip;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; up in class; drawn 19;
Verdict: (40) market may give indication of expectations, but no surprise were he to be thereabouts and a possible contender if high draw not a disadvantage.
Firmament 6-9-2 (98) Dr 1
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (930 d) 8f gd/fm Good 10/1 3.5 7/17 off 99
held up towards rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, switched sharply right and hampered inside final furlong, never able to challenge
Won the 2016 renewal off 91, but hasn’t reached the winner’s enclosure since despite some solid efforts off higher marks; was 3rd in last season’s renewal here off 109; interestingly, has largely been campaigned over 7f this season (to lower his mark??) but may have been unlucky in the Golden Mile at Goodwood where with a clearer run he’d likely have been a lot closer to the final action; not sure how he’ll get on from stall 1 with his hold up style.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (20 days); down 1lb;
Minus: not won since 2016;
Verdict: (39) conditions suits and could be thereabouts again, a contender.
Original Choice 4-9-4 (100) Dr 5
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (930 d) 8f gd/fm Good 12/1 0.75l 3/17 off 97
held up towards rear, good headway on inside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish
Has shown promise this season winning the Hunt Cup at Wetherby in May and after running down the field in the Coral Cup at Sandown coming back from a break in early July, finishing 3rd over both 10f and 8f at the Goodwood Festival, to stable companion Seniority (+1) in the latter race; has been raised 3lbs for that but meets S on 3lbs better terms today, which on paper may give him the edge; just wonder if the ground might be fast enough as turf wins have come on gd or softer.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (37) certainly weighted to be thereabouts and a possible contender if the ground not too fast.
Kynren 4-9-1 (97) Dr 3
14 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1250 u) 10.5f gd/fm York 181/1 2.5l 3/19 off 96
mid-division, headway over 3f out, chased winner well over 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner and lost 2nd towards finish
Good first season winning the last 3 of 4 starts; returned with a solid effort when 3/20 in the Spring Mile at Doncaster and then narrowly beaten at Sandown in May; first disappointment of his career came when down the field in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, but bounced back with a splendid effort in the John Smith’s here last month, only being nudged into 3/19 late on when perhaps lack of stamina told; has been raised a mere 1lb, which might underestimate a career best effort on fast ground, plus one suspects the drop back in trip may well be a boon.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (40 days); drop in trip;
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (34) seems to need around a month between races, but wish stable was in better form, nevertheless a contender.

A typically competitive York handicap where you could make a case for at least half the field. However, a lengthy break and faster than ideal ground see me draw a line through the admirably consistent Gulf Of Poets, while I can’t find the necessary excuses for the last two run of Poet’s Society since the Golden Mile. Weight and over 2 months off, plus coming from listed company are sufficient for me to pass on top weight Sharja Bridge, but there could be others I’ve overlooked. Annoyingly, there’s not even ay help from the draw, which is pretty evenly split between single and double digit drawn horses.

Pruning my shortlist begins with Get Knotted, who I believe is better over shorter, plus probably prefers less testing opposition. The number 19 stall worries me for Reach High who has been very tenderly handled to date. It may be his day, but on balance I think not and he can go too. Firmament, inside draw, not won since taking this 2 years ago, has more negatives than positives I believe, so that’s the next one out. That leaves an interesting quartet that includes 2 of the 3 Haggas entries, Seniority [now N/R] and Original Choice, the colt, Afaak, and the promising 4yo Kynren who is dropping back in trip. Of course, Sods Law demands that 2 are low drawn and 2 drawn in double digits. Haggas has such a good record here so I’ll go for Original Choice from Afaak who may relegate Kynren to 3rd.

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