Saturday 29th September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 29th September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:46 am

Just the one today, as the 35-runner Cambridgeshire has demanded all my attention and sapped all my energy today – age is catching up I guess. How it will go I don’t know, but I believe they’re offering up to eight places – and just to think, how generous we thought it was when they first offered four places for specific big field handicaps!

Newmarket 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 996 (107) 9f gd/fm – 35 Run
3yos = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 996 (110) gd/sf – 34 ran
Dolphin Vista 50/1 4-8-7 (96) Dr 29 by 1.5l from Sands Chorus 100/1 5-8-6 (92) Dr 22
Examiner 50/1 6-8-5 (94) Dr 16 was 2.95l 6th
Bravery 33/1 4-8-11 (97) Dr 21 was 6.45l 13th
Kings Gift 28 1 3-8-5 (101) Dr 18 was 16.52l 25th

Danceteria 3-9-1 (103) Dr 10
16 Sept Prem Hcap (800 u) 10f gd Curr 8/1 3.75l 5/19 off 104
dwelt, took keen hold towards rear, ridden on outer 3f out, no impression 1 1/2f out, late headway final furlong, stayed on strongly, never nearer
Highly progressive this term winning 4 in a row at up to 10f over the summer before recording another career best in finishing a creditable 5/19 in a valuable hcap at the Curragh in mid month; showed he could handle a large field on that occasion and runs off a 1lb lower mark today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days); career best lto; down 1lb;
Minus:
Verdict: (52) has risen 27lbs in the weights since his win over 8f at Sandown in June, plus wonder whether he may prefer a longer trip nowadays; nevertheless, a contender.
Alfarris 4-9-7 (104) Dr 23
25 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (440 d) 10.5f gd/fm York 9/2 Jt F 2.5l 2/15 off 101
held up in last pair, switched right 3f out, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner
Has been thereabouts in all 4 starts this year winning 2 and being runner-up on the other 2 occasions; unable to run down Pivoine (-6) at York lto despite another career best, but meets him on 8lbs better terns today despite himself going up 3lbs in the weights, however, yet to win on fast ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: course; up 3lbs;
Verdict: (48) has alternated wins this season, so perhaps he’s due today(!); nevertheless, a definite contender.
Kenya 3-9-4 (106) Dr 17
15 Sept Gr 2 Stks (1060 u) 8f gd/fm Leop 7/2 1.75l 2/10 off 106
soon led, ridden along under 2f out, headed and kept on without matching winner inside final furlong
Appears to be an autumn horse for having beaten only one horse home in his first 3 starts this season, came back from a 3-month break to take the Irish Cambridgeshire in fine style; followed up by matching that performance when runner-up in a valuable Gr 2 Stks at Leopardstown in mid-month; runs off the same mark here and O’Brien’s rare hcap runners are always worth watching.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (46) difficult race to win from the front, but likely to be thereabouts and a contender.
Kynren 4-9-3 (100) Dr 22
23 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (530 d) 8f gd/fm York 5/1 Co F 0.25l 2/18 off 97
mid-division, pushed along and headway 2f out, driven inside final furlong, went 2nd towards finish
Save for a disappointing effort in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, he’s been thereabouts in all his starts this season; had a number of these behind him when narrowly denied in a career best at York in August; had previously shown that this trip holds no terrors by finishing 3rd in the John Smith’s there; the Buick booking suggests the stable fancy his chances.
Plus: class (F) going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (37 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3lbs;
Verdict: (44) not won yet this term, but a definite contender here
Wissahickon 3-9-5 (107) Dr 21
14 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (160 d) 10f AW Chelm 8/11 F 1.25l 1/5 off 101
in touch in rear, switched right and headway over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, asserted towards finish
Won a pair of 3yo-hcaps over 10f at York and Chelmsford, sandwiching a poor effort in a 3yo-hcap here in mid-July; has been raised 6lbs for his career best at Chelmsford, but now takes on older horse for the first time in hcap company.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (46 days); career best lto;
Minus: course; up 6lbs; facing older horses;
Verdict: (42) this a stiffer test than facing fellow 3yos and July run here still a worry, so not the strongest contender perhaps.

Past trends tell us to concentrate on 3yo to 6yo runners who have had at least 4 starts in the current season, preferably winning at least one. Ideally, they should be coming from Cl 2 hcap in which they recorded a season high RPR, plus have form in Cl 2 or higher and have previously won over 9f or 10f.

Plenty of others that might have made the shortlist, including Via Serendipity who raised worries about the extra furlong. UAE Prince was another, but a 5yo with just one run this season back at the start of May, plus a suspicion he needs further saw his downfall. I could make a case for Stylehunter too, but believe the progressive 3yo is the stable’s second string with Frankie on Wissahickon.

Paring my shortlist down to more usable size saw Wissahickpon the first to go. For some nagging reason I have my doubts about Danceteria as well. So that leaves three. So in the hopes I get something right for a change, I’m going for Alfarris from Kenya and perhaps Kynren.

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