Saturday 6th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 6th October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:05 am

Well, that’s the way to do it – the first one I threw out last week was the winner! Just the one race thus week, as it’s taking me longer and longer to go through things and I’ve got less and less time to do it long hand. See how this comes out, but it is some time since I actually correctly identified a winner!

Ascot 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 1121 (110) 7f gd – 18 Run
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1121 (109) gd/sf – 18 ran
Accidental Agent 16/1 3-9-3 (104) Dr 8 by 0.5l from Lord Glitters 20/1 4-9-3 (102) Dr 14
Raising Sand 16/1 5-8-13 (98) Dr 1 was 1.25l 3rd
Firmament 16/1 5-9-10 (109) Dr 7 was 8.1l 8th
Flaming Spear 9/1 5-9-8 (107) Dr 3 was 20.1l 14th

Ripp Orf 4-8-11 (97) Dr 18
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (130 d) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 7/2 F 3l 4/12 off 97
in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, stayed on towards finish, not trouble leaders
Has had a progressive season rising 18lbs since getting off the mark in a Kempton novice back in March; certainly likes this C&D having won 2 valuable hcaps here and made the frame in the International Stks; beat Cape Byron (+11) here for his last success in early September, but could only finish 3rd to Muntadab off today’s mark last weekend, 0.75l behind Gilgamesh (+3); meets G on the same terms today, although is 2lbs worse off with CB; noted that all turf wins have come on fast ground and has not run on gd.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: going (?);
Verdict: (45) consistent sort who loves C&D and while the going a slight question mark, a strong contender.
Flaming Spear 6-9-10 (110) Dr 16
25 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (620 d) 7f gd Good 4/1 Jt F 1/75l 1/17 off 104
slowly into stride, behind, headway on outside over 1f out, ran on to lead inside final furlong, ridden out
Moved to the Ivory yard from Kevin Ryan between seasons and by no means disgraced when 5/30 in the Royal Hunt Cup on his return in June; was a little moody prior to the start when favourite for the International Stks here the following month, the blindfold needed to persuade him to enter the stalls; in the event the blindfold was late coming off resulting in a tardy start and under the circumstances he did well to finish in the top half of the field; no such problems at Goodwood towards the end of August when despite again being slowly away he came through to stay on very strongly in the final furlong and won going away by 1.75l from Cape Byron (-4) in a career best; has been raised 6lbs for that and this may well be one of his last handicap appearances, although rider does claim 5lbs, which means he’ll actually be 2lbs better in with CB; however, jockey raises a query as he’s only had 10 career rides (none here) and hasn’t made a racecourse appearance since June, plus is having his first ride for Ivory.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 6lbs; current stable form (0/18 – 14d); jockey experience (1/3/10 career);
Verdict: (44) questions with career high mark, stable form and jockey experience suggest he’s not the strongest contender today.
Cape Byron 4-9-3 (103) Dr 8
08 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (500 d) 7f gd/fm Ascot 9/2 F 0.5l 2/20 off 101
raced centre, held up, good headway chasing leaders over 1f out, led group inside final furlong, ran on but not quite pace of winner
Gelding has had a marked effect and after his fine effort behind Flaming Spear at Goodwood at the end of August on his second run back, started favourite for the Cunard here last month; however, despite having every chance and recording another career best, he failed to match the pace of Ripp Orf (-11) who has taken a distinct liking for the C&D here this season; due to jockey bookings, will meet RO on just 2lbs better terms, but that should bring the pair even closer together today.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (41) weighted to finish closer to Ripp Orf and has to be considered a contender.
Raising Sand 6-8-11 (97) Dr 17
Not won since August last year and still 5lbs above that mark; however, has only had 7 starts since, a number of those on ground faster than ideally suits; thanks to his rider’s claim will run off a de facto 4lb lower mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal and not disgraced when finishing 8/20 to Ripp Orf (-8) here at the start of last month – has since looked fit when running through beaten horse late in the Cambridgeshire last weekend; meets RO on 8lbs better terms for 3.25l that separated them ere and could well be a lot closer today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (7 days);
Minus: hasn’t made the frame this term;
Verdict: (41) could be running into form and a possible contender.
Gilgamesh 4-8-11 (97) Dr 10
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (130 d) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 8/1 2.25l 2/12 off 97
close up, pushed along and headway over 2f out, ridden to press winner final furlong, not quicken close home
A close 7/27 to Ripp Orf (-6) in the Victoria Cup here in mid-May before taking a York hcap later in the month; found them going a little too fast when 7/28 in the Wokingham, but rather lost his way over the summer before finishing runner-up at Newmarket last weekend, just ahead of Ripp Orf (-3); runs off the same mark today and certainly has place claims if repeating that running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14f); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: trainer (C – 0/14);
Verdict: (37) not the strongest claims but could well run into the frame.
Firmament 6-9-0 (100) Dr 6
20 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (160 d) 8f AW Chelm 8/1 1.25l 2/8 off 100
close up, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on
Runner-up in the 2016 renewal off 106, though down the field last year off 109, but starts this year off a 9lbs lower mark; however, is still 4lbs higher than for his last win at York in August 2016; that said, has suggested in his last 2 starts at Sandown and Chelmsford that he may be returning to form and not totally ignored.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (16 days);
Minus: strike rate (6% on turf); more than 2 years since last win;
Verdict: (32) no surprise were he to run well, but rather a reach to call him a strong contender.

October opens with a competitive 7f affair and among those I might have included are Growl and Good Effort, both of whom are preferred ahead of Il Primo Sole whose form to date doesn’t seem to warrant his market position. Growl is a bit of a reach as he’s yet to win over 7f but seems to now be lacking the finishing pace to claim the biggest sprint prizes, although he’s never far away when it matters. On balance though, it’s hard to see his claims placing him above those on my shortlist. The same holds true for the fast-improving Good Effort, especially with him having gone up 7lbs for his latest effort in listed company.

Trends tell us that 3yo to 6yo horses provide the winners and that they’ve shown recent form in finishing in the top 4 in at least one of their last two starts. Fitness is shown by a run within the last 45 days, but they shouldn’t have more than a single win this season. Overall, they should have won 1 to 3 hcaps, at least one in Cl 2 plus also in a field of at least 12 runners.

Trying to marry that with claims of those on my shortlist is not easy, although Firmament and Flaming Seal make both. However, both are 6yos, as is Raising Sand, and with only a single 6yo winner in the past 10 renewals, I have to query their chances. This is especially true for Flaming Seal with top weight and ridden by such an inexperienced apprentice, so he’s the first to go, Firmament’s strike rate has me believing that while he may go close, the win is not the likeliest scenario, so out he goes too. That leaves me with Raising Sand, Ripp Orf, Cape Byron and Gilgamesh, with Ripp Orf being the common thread. The fact that Cape Byron is strong favourite rather prejudices me in regard to his chances, while there have to be questions about Raising Sand and Gilgamesh. Yet surely the handicapper must have caught up with Ripp Orf by now. Again I fear I’ve got the order wrong. But Ripp Orf surely must make the frame and may be good enough to hold off Raising Sand, Cape Byron and Gilgamesh, perhaps in that order.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 6th October

Postby martinkil » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:44 pm

Nicely done sir

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 6th October

Postby Devasteve » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:58 am

Thanks Martin, a nice way to return to form. Maybe concentrating more of less is the way to go?????


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