Saturday 13th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 13th October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:18 pm

Broke the streak in fine style last week and while I had the first two in the wrong order I’ve long enough stopped being arrogant enough to believe I can pick a winner in one. With the size of today’s field though, I might need to take a whole bunch against the field, and even then not get it right. So fingers crossed the chosen pair at least give us a decent run.

Newmarket 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 3073 (107) gd/fm – 34 Run (33 at best)
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (102) gd – 34 ran
Withhold 5/1 F 4-8-8 (87) Dr 24 by 3.75l from London Prize 16/1 6-9-2 (95) Dr 28
Fun Mac 50/1 6-9-10 (103) Dr 14 was 41l 28th

Limini 7-9-7 (102) Dr 9
15 Sep Prem Hcap (800 u) 13f gd/fm Leop 5/1 0.1l 1/16 off 98
held up, soon raced in 14th, pushed along approaching straight where raced towards outer and headway, challenged final furlong, stayed on well to lead near finish
Useful dual-purpose mare, although lightly raced; Cheltenham Festival winner in 2016 and took a listed hurdle at Punchestown before finishing 3rd in GR 1 Mares Hurdle at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival; not seen then until runner-up over 17f at Galway this July; followed up by finishing 3/11 over 12f there before getting back in the winner’s enclosure over 13f at Leopardstown last month, just edging out stable companion Law Girl (-9) in a career best; carries a 4lbs penalty, which could advantage LG, but likely has more improvement to come back up in distance on only her 6th flat start,
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (49) very lightly-raced 7yo mare, but in form and not without a chance; a contender.
Southern France 3-9-2 (107) Dr 24
15 Sep Gr 1 Stks (4210 u) 14.5f gd Donc 20/1 6.75l 3/12 off 107
mid-division, headway over 4f out, challenged over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair final furlong
Twice a winner this year and was runner-up to stable companion in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot and finished 3rd to him again in the St Leger, though unable to lay a glove on the front two in the final furlong’ conditions will suit but has to prove stamina for today’s step up in trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance; course; hcap debut;
Verdict: (44) may be a little short of experience and unproven at the distance, so not the strongest contender perhaps.
Stars Over The Sea 7-9-9 (104) Dr 27
22 Sep Cl 2 (310 u) 18f gd Nwmk 7/2 F 10l 1/10 off 100
made most and soon 20 lengths clear, pushed along 3f out, ridden out, unchallenged
Has had a productive season since crossing the sea from Ireland and made good on the promise of his 2 previous when getting off the mark for his new yard with an enterprising ride to record a career best in dominating the trial and romping home 10l clear of Golden Spear (-14); carries a 4lbs penalty for that, but will find the tactics harder to repeat in the ‘real’ thing.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (44) it’s always harder to win the main event, but not without chances and a contender.
Stratum 5-9-7 (102) Dr 18
25 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (3110) 14f gd/fm York 3/1 F 9.25l 12/20 off 102
held up towards rear, headway 3f out, troubled passage on inside from over 2f out, staying on when badly hampered on rail inside final 2f, not recover
Winner over hurdles and has had a promising summer on the flat finishing 3rd in the Ascot Stks before beating Kloud Gate (-3) over the extended 16f at Newbury; made favourite for the Ebor on the strength of that. but had a trouble run and that best forgotten; is of the witching age, however, as only a trio of 5yos have won since 1990; however, is lightly raced like his successful predecessors.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (49 days);
Minus: course; no form run lto; 5yo;
Verdict: (35) another Mullins entry, but needs to bounce back from Ebor disappointment and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Just In Time 4-9-3 (98) Dr 2
14 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (260 u) 14.5f gd/sf Donc 12/1 0.1l 1/14 off 94
held up mid-division, headway over 2f out, kept on to lead close home
Excellent strike rate and proved he could handle this level when recording a career best in taking the Mallard at Doncaster last month; does have form at this trip so could make light of his 4lbs penalty, but the majority of his racing has been at a much lower level.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (34) looks to be promising stayer and a possible contender.
Vis A Vis 4-8-9 (90) Dr 22
08 Aug Cl 4 Hcap (60 s) 16 f AW Kemp 3/1 2,75l 1/9 off 82
driven forward and made virtually all, ridden over 1f out, ran on well
Consistent 3yo in France last year and has won both his starts since joining his current yard, albeit at a lower level; interesting jockey booking as De Sousa has won 3 of the last 5 renewals, including for this yard aboard Sweet Selection in 2016.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes; 66-day break;
Verdict: (33); speculative, but looks to have been targeted at this and a contender.
Cleonte 5-9-0 (95) Dr 7
11 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (220 d) 16f gd Ascot 9/2 0.75l 1/10 off 92
held up in mid-division, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden out
Joined current yard from France at the start of last season, but didn’t show a lot and was gelded between seasons; has been seen in a better light this time round and recorded first success for the yard when beating Stars Over The Sea (+6) at Ascot in August; not been seen since, but the runner-up franked the form by winning the trail here; raised only 3lbs and actually meets SOTS on 3lbs better form today, but is another of those 5yos!
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course; up 3lbs; 63-day break;
Verdict: (33) has the 5yo jinx to overcome, but a possible contender.

Plenty of likely contenders today and I could have added more. Trends offer some help besides the poor record of 5yos, as no winner in the last 12 renewals had been beaten more than 10l on its previous start; only one had previously failed to win over at least 16f, either on the flat or over hurdles.

Applying that to my lengthy shortlist, I think I shall pass on Stratum and probably Cleonte too. I worry whether the 3yo Southern France has enough experience to take on such a challenge, plus the trip’s a question mark too. So there goes another one. Of the remaining quartet, Just In Time has questions about the trip at this level, while Stars Over The Sea may well find the main event too tough to conquer after taking the trial in impressive style. The two that look best set to me are Limini from Vis A Vis possibly, although the latter is a bit of a reach. Chasing them home I expect to see Stars Over The Sea and Just In Time, although Cleonte is the one that I fear to possibly upset the apple cart.

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