Saturday 20th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 20th October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:05 am

No luck last week, as for only the fourth time since 1989, a 5yo won; it had been 14 years since the last one! However, one of my pair ran well enough to make the frame, as did the one I feared most but discarded because he was a 5yo. This week’s race hasn’t been around as long, this only being the fifth renewal, so there’s no help from past trends. So let’s hope that my efforts are a little better than last week’s!

Ascot 16.30 Cl 2 Hcap 1556 (110) 8f sf – 20 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (110) sf – 20 ran
Lord Glitters 3/1 F 4-9-3 (102) Dr 3 by 0.25l from Gm Hopkins 20/1 6-9-5 (104) Dr 18

Raising Sand 6-9-2 (102) Dr 20
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120 u) 7f sf Ascot 5/1 2l 1/15 off 97
in touch, headway 2f out, quickened to lead just inside final furlong, wandered under pressure, ran on
Likes Ascot with half of his 6 wins having come here, the latest being the Challenge Cup a couple of week ago under today’s rider when he recorded a career best in similar conditions and had several of today’s field behind; return to 8f no problem and conditions suit, although does carry a 6lbs penalty.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (55) suited by conditions and goes well for young rider, a definite contender.
Safe Voyage 5-9-3 (103) Dr 4
05 Aug Prem Hcap (530 u) 7f yld Galway 7/1 0.25l 11/16 off 99
took keen hold early, soon mid-division, 8th before halfway, raced on outer straight and headway, stayed on well final furlong to lead near line
Showed great improvement this year storming home over 7f on sf at Haydock on his return in April and then getting up late on to win off an 11lbs higher mark at Galway when next seen in early August; runs off a 4lbs higher mark today, but returns to 8f over which he was a one paced 4/6 on his only other start.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance; course (?); 76-day break; up 4lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: (48) seeking hat-trick, but rise in trip means he’s a contender with a question mark.
Argentello 3-9-1 (104) Dr 23
16 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (160 u) 8f AW Kemp 4/1 1.75l 1/10 off 98
raced keenly, with leader, led 2f out, shaken up well over 1f out, soon clear, ridden out inside final furlong, stayed on well
Unraced as 3yo but has won 4 of his 8 starts this year; his last 5 starts include wins in 8f hcaps at Yarmouth and Windsor in early June and early July, before finishing 3/9 to First Contact at Newmarket in mid-July; bounced back to record a career best when downing Via Via (+10) by 1l at Newmarket in mid-August and then returned from a 60-day break to record a further career best when winning on his AW debut at Kempton on Tuesday; quick return with a 6lbs penalty, but conditions suit.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (4 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (44) improving 3yo and a contender if handling the quick return.
Flaming Spear 6-9-10 (110) Dr 22
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120 u) 7f sf Ascot 5/1 3.75l 5/15 off 110
went right start, towards rear, ridden and headway entering final furlong, ran on, nearest finish
Moved from the Ryan yard between seasons and showed promise on his return when 5/20 in the Hunt Cup here in June; has run over 7f since, not being at his best in the Gigaset here at the end of July but possibly appreciating the easier ground when winning going away at Goodwood towards the end of August and then not disgraced when 5/15 to Raising Sand (-11) here a fortnight ago; thanks to rider claims will actually meet RS on the same terms today, but the return of Winston a plus.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: (37) tough task with top weight in these conditions and not the strongest contender.
Aquarium 3-9-3 (106) Dr 9
13 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (220 d) 10.5f sf York 16/1 0.25l 1/14 off 100
pulled hard in mid-division, headway tracking leaders after 2f, ridden to lead over 1f out, edged right, stayed on
Has won 5 of his 20 starts this year, the latest over the extended 10f at York last weekend; carries a 6lbs penalty for that, but the bigger worry is the drop back to 8f which might be a little short for him nowadays.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent form run (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: 6lbs penalty; drop in trip;
Verdict: (34) fit and in form, but suspect they might go a little quick for him over this trip and not the strongest contender.
Kynren 4-8-13 (99) Dr 18
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (1000 u) 9f gd/fm Nwmkt 14/1 7.75l 6/33 off 100
raced centre, in touch, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong
Closed out last season with a trio of wins over 7f and 8f, 2 on sf; hasn’t added to his tally this year, but has made the frame in 3 of his 6 starts starting with the Spring Mile at Doncaster in March; perhaps not at his best in the Cambridgeshire last month, a mixture of the extra furlong and the fast ground being against; should be better suited by the drop in trip and the slower ground.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (21 days); down 1lb; down in trip;
Minus: course (?); trainer (C – 1/35);
Verdict: (33) should be better suited by trip and going and a possible contender for the frame.

Others that I could make a case for include Hathal returning to hcap company in conditions that suit. Mitchum Swagger having only his third start of the year in conditions that should suit, and Via Via who was third in the Cambridgeshire.

However, paying attention to my shortlist I think the first to go are Aquarium who may well find the trip on the short side, Flaming Spear who has to give weight to the field and perhaps Safe Voyage who has to prove he stays this trip. Of the remaining trio I can’t really give Kynren more than a place chance, so am going for Raising Sand to edge out Argentello as the first two home.

Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests