Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
SLARKS
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:30 am

Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby SLARKS » Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:25 am

Hi!

As a new user of patternform I would appreciate some advice.

I don't know which filter to start from especially when the horses have a lot of experience. In your opinions is there one filter that carries more weight in terms of picking a winner?

I'd like to try to create a systematic approach to go through the card and create a short list of potential winners based on form each day, so the starting point is vital

Any suggestions based on your successful experiences would be appreciated.

Good luck to you all!

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby martinkil » Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:19 pm

My advice would be - if you find a winning approach - keep it to yourself :)

elmoputney69
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:19 am

Re: Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby elmoputney69 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:56 pm

As a new member myself I am very much finding my feet but I have been trading from the top 3 selections from using going, distance ,class and 18months as the basis, I quite like that as it should highlight the best from last season and around this time and potentially and more recent solid efforts, I know the concensus seems to be go back 2yr + but I tend to not trust anything too historic don't always recreate there best, as a rule I don't use the exact going and distance especially for NH I tend to use the exact one and a few each side for distance and going ie GS and then maybe good or soft depending which seems the more likely and also run them separately and together to get a better picture of where they sit through all these factors

On a more general level you won't go far wrong with class form and fitness though
.good luck

elmoputney69
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:19 am

Re: Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby elmoputney69 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:01 pm

When I said trading from the top 3 I usually mean the one that has most potential to trad successfuly from the 3 btw ;)

KamikazeCo-Pilot
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2015 5:13 pm

Re: Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby KamikazeCo-Pilot » Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:48 pm

Hi

I have been using patternform for a while now and I find it the best tool out there.
For what it's worth I look at the following over 12 months and over the last two months.

Going/ground (has it got ground form?)
Distance (has it got distance form?)
Speed
Multi

This usually irons out several horses (unless of course there's nothing to go on for any)

Hope this helps
Regards

elmoputney69
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:19 am

Re: Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby elmoputney69 » Thu Nov 22, 2018 11:18 pm

I have to say I am impressed with it so far, I have tried most of the big expensive ones in the past and actually I find this just as useful, I don't have to spend ages with systems or big data sheets or spending an age looking at info that probably won't have much bearing on the outcone, I just seem to get the facts and a nice short list to work with and I've been finding the market helps to narrow that down to one which should trade out nicely in play,

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Ground, Distance, Course experience, class, where to begin?

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:50 pm

I feel it is possible to get at some really good data from sites that provide it freely, Patternform as you say is one of the best, what I find from the paid site is that they can be really good at structuring the data in some very easily accessible formats, but you are very much limited to how they structure the data though some do offer customisation which is really good. When it comes to paid sites I feel it comes down to the type of data you want and how you like it structured, The free sites I use do require that I manipulate the data quite a bit, and this does take time, the paid site do this for you and almost with the click of a button you can the selections you want, this does however, come at a price, so depends for me on how much you are prepared to work on the data form different sites and how much time one has.

There can be a temptation to use too much data and combine too many things, assuming that more data makes for better predictability of winners, however it is really hard to judge which types of data when combined do so in a positive way, for example, combining last time out with speed in last race and trainer performance one might assume that top ranked in all of these would produce a lot of winners, but it does not really work out that way, it might produce a 'system' with a high SR, but a low average winning odds would lead to negative profit and thus loosing money, winners does not always mean profit, its the value of the winners that makes the profit

I have used some very good paid sites and over the years honed in on the data I like to use, I keep it simple now and that is why Patternform suites me because the data mostly focusses on a horse ability to win over the conditions, e.g. going, track race type etc, finding a 'data' niche that can uncover value selections rather than following the crowd is where the profit can be found, focusing on speed, pace, or whatever is all good just depends how you manipulate and interpret the data, I have found the biggest challenge for me is overcoming the 'angst' loosing runs and avoiding the temptation of running too many approaches at the same time, I am currently running two, one of which I am posting in the selections thread - Irish races - this is proving a real challenge as it is currently in the red and yet to turn to profit, there is a temptation to drop an approach that is loosing and move onto another one, the risk is of doing this just when the approach is about to turn and into profit, I think any approach has to be given at least 3 months to see if can produce a profit, or even longer, I think betting mindset is the biggest challenge for me, and holding my nerve with a 'system'

I basically focus on, going, class, distance, course and race type performance and look at a race based on each horses ability with relation to each of these factors, I look at races where most of the runners have form with respect of these factors so I avoid races like maidens and nurseries in the main, I then can compare runners that have quite a bit of form and I then decide which runner(s) have the best overall chance of winning based on the these 5 factors, I don't complicate things with speed ratings etc. but that is just my personal preference, I treat these 5 factors equally looking for the best overall performer, the ideal selection is the one with decent odds that hopefully the market has underestimated

I have my own approach then as to how I combine these factors, and as martinkil says if you find one keep it to yourself ;)

Good luck and enjoy your betting, and manage your betting bank effectively
Catspajamas


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