Saturday 27th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 27th October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:35 am

A rather quick one this week as my heart’s not really in it for various reasons, but hopefully it will turn out somewhere close to the result as it will likely be the last for what I hope is only a short while.

Doncaster 16.35 Cl 2 Claiming Hcap 187 (107) 7f gd/sf – 22 Run

Ripp Orf 4-9-7 (98) Dr 1
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120 u) 7f sf Ascot 6/1 2l 2/15 off 97
mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, no impression towards finish
A season of improvement since initially getting off the mark at Kempton in early April, counting the Victoria Cup among his 3 subsequent successes that have seen his mark rise 16lbs; probably best at 7f, though has won over 8f, and dispelled any notion that he’s solely a fast ground horse when producing a career best to be runner-up to Raising Sand at Ascot 3 weeks ago; a fast-paced 7f over a straight course seems ideal, which is what he gets today.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: going; course (?); up 1lb;
Verdict: (47) consistent and a contender if the low draw no impediment
Boy In The Bar 7-8-7 (84) Dr 11
22 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (260 u) 7f AW Chelm 8/1 0.1l 1/11 off 80
held up towards rear, headway on inside over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led post
Back to winning ways over this trip at Chelmsford last month, but seems better at sprint distances on turf, although hasn’t won on the real stuff since May 2017; 4lbs rise seems fair enough, but not sure this trip suits on turf.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 4lbs; returns to turf;
Verdict: (45) not sure this trip ideal on turf and not the strongest contender today perhaps.
Muntadab 6-9-12 (103) Dr 10
16 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (130 s) 7f gd/sf Leic 9/2 0.4l 1/7 off 102
made all, pushed along 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely
Course winner who has been in good form this past month winning over this trip at Newmarket and on similar ground at Leicester the day after setting a career best when runner-up at Musselburgh; only up 1lb for his Leicester win under today’s jockey and can’t be ignored.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (11 days); recent career best (12 days);
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (41) this tougher than Leicester, but in good form and a contender.
Alaadel 5-8-10 (87) Dr 22
14 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (160 u) 6f sf Good 7/2 1.25l 1/9 off 82
tracked leaders, headway and every chance over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, edged left and ran on
Form run in similar conditions in only attempt at this trip at Ascot last October and produced a career best when winning at Goodwood 13 days ago; raised 5lbs for that and not sure about the outside draw, but in a big field anything can happen,
Plus: going (F); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (13 days); career best lto (13 days);
Minus: class; up 5lbs; up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: (36) a possible contender if carrying form when rising in trip and weights

Of others towards the front of the market, the ground rather puts me off Breanski, as his wins have come either on gd/fm or the AW. Of the O’Meara pair at the head of the weights I prefer the chances of So Beloved returning to handicap company, rather than those of the hard to win with Firmament who has never won over this trip.

Looking at the quartet on my shortlist, I’m inclined to drop Boy In The Bar over this trip on turf, while I do have doubts about Alaadel up in class at this trip. So without being too unorthodox I’m going for Ripp Orf from Muntadab with Alaadel and So Beloved possibly scrapping it out for the minor places.

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