Saturday 10th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 10th November

Postby Devasteve » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:03 pm

Right, I had intended to do more, but the change in going at Doncaster nearly caught me and I had to redo everything – hope I got it right. That didn’t leave much time for the Badger, but it doesn’t look as strong as last year. Fingers crossed that I’ve dome something right!

Doncaster 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 436 (107) 12f gd – 23 Run – going sf to gd/sf
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 436 (106) sf – 23 ran
Saunter 6/1 4-8-13 (95) Dr 14 by 1.25l from Chelsea Lad 20/1 4-9-2 (98) Dr 9
Eddystone Rock 33/1 5-9-4 (100) Dr 15 was 2.5l 3rd
Royal Line 5/1 F 3-8-9 (96) Dr 12 was 5.35l 7th
Fun Mac 50/1 6-9-6 (102) Dr 3 was 7.35l 9th

Reshoun 4-8-11 (94) Dr 18
08 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (390 d) 24f Hayd 6/1 3.25l 1/8 off 90
tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden out
C&D winner off 86 on gd/sf here on final start last season, but hadn’t really had his ground this term until ploughing through the Haydock mud for a career best win back in early September; up 4lbs for that, but was initially a little worried about today’s conditions, though overnight rain has changed those to more suitable sf or gd/sf.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; 63-day break; drops down in trip;
Verdict: (50) looks as if overnight rain may have helped his cause and a contender if the going remains on the soft side of gd.
Now Children 4-9-0 (97) Dr 7
14 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (190 u) 12f sf Good 4/1 4.5l 1/11 off 91
close up, hampered over 4f out, headway to chase leader over 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, edged left and driven out
Won 2 of his 4 starts as a 3yo, but missed the whole of his 3yo season and had been off the track for night on 17 month when making a winner start for the Cox yard over 9.5f at Wolverhampton in early February having come over from Jardine at the start of the month; might have found the ground a mite too quick on his first start at this trip at York in May and not seen then until runner-up to easy winner Temple Church at Newbury in late September; followed that with a career best when accounting for Wolf Country (+7) and Seafarer (0) at Goodwood last month; raised 6lbs for that but could well have the beating of the pair again, although not sure of the affect of the single digit draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (27 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: (47) lightly-raced sort who should have more to give, a contender.
Buzz 4-9-1 (98) Dr 21
22 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (470 u) 10f sf Newb 9/1 0.02l 1/11 off 93
tracked leaders, went 2nd inside final furlong, soon ridden, stayed on to lead post
Won an 8f mdn at Kempton as a 2yo and runner-up up over 10f at Sandown on second and final outing as a 3yo; gelded last December and has returned to win over 11f and 12f at Kempton; showed he didn’t stay 14f at Nottingham in August, but put in a sustained effort to get up in the final strides over 10f on sf at Newbury lto, recording a career best in the process; obviously still improving and a 5lbs rise probably not excessive as he steps back up in trip again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (49 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: (46) improving sort who likely to go well if wide draw no hindrance;
Royal Line 4-9-8 (105) Dr 23
25 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (160 u) 12f gd Epsom 5/1 2.75l 1/13 off 95
tracked leaders, challenged going well 2f out, soon led, quickened clear over 1f out, edged left final furlong, very easily
Lightly-raced 4yo who made debut as a 3yo having come over from the Fabre yard; won his first 2 starts for Gosling and was made favourite for last year’s renewal off 96, but could only finish a creditable 7/23 to Saunter; after having an opener over C&D here in March, was very impressive in talking the Grand Met at Epsom the following month in a career best; has not been seen since though and runs here off a 10lbs higher mark, but the colt may be a cut above these.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: up 10lbs; up in class; 199-day break;
Verdict: (40) break a major worry, but not a trainer to question, so a contender.
Wolf Country 4-9-1 (98) Dr 12
14 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (190 d) 12f sf Good 8/1 4.5l 2/11 off 98
soon led, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace
Won 2 of his first 3 starts, but has largely disappointed since; extremely so on his return at Newmarket in May where he finished L/15 to Grey Britain (-3) and then not seen until recording a career-best when a well-beaten runner-up to Now Children (-7) at Goodwood last month; entitled to come on for that and meets the winner on 6lbs better terms, but no certainty to reverse the running.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (27 days); career best lto;
Minus: course;
Verdict: (38) could improve for Goodwood, but not the strongest contender perhaps.

Competitive as ever, but I shall follow my normal contention which is to look for progressive younger horses who are proven at around the trip and have had at least a couple of starts this season, showing form in one of the last two. There are some interesting ones that didn’t make the cut such as To Be Wild, but I can’t have a horse coming back from a 539-day break! Nor for that matter am I keen on the chances of current market leader My Lord And Master who has something to prove in my book. Eddystone Rock was 3rd last year and runs off 9lbs lower mark today, plus ran well enough in Ireland last weekend. However, he doesn’t win that often and I can’t see him doing it today.

From my shortlist, Royal Line ran well enough in last year’s renewal, but he runs off 9lbs higher today and hasn’t been seen since April. I don’t doubt Gosden’s training abilities, but I can’t have RL today. I’m also surprised to see Wolf Country shorter than Now Children who looked much the better horse at Goodwood. Sure, he may well come on for the race, but NC could well have more to show too. Buzz is another that looks to be on a upward curve and I can’t ignore him, nor now the going’s changed can I strike out Reshoun. So I expect the winner to come from this latter trio, though putting them in the right order is tricky as usual. So with fingers crossed, I’m going for Now Children from Rashoun and Buzz with Wolf Country right on their tails.

Wincanton 15.35 Listed Hcap Chase 342 (144) 25f gd/fm – 16 Run

Last year – 342 (154) sf – 16 ran
Present Man 8/1 7-10-9 (142) by 0.1l from Final Nudge 12/1 8-10-11 (139)

Present Man 8-11-12 (144)
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: 196-day break
Verdict: (54) only 2lbs higher than when taking last year’s renewal, so again a contender.
Bigbadjohn 9-11-5 (137)
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: going (?); up 2lbs; up 2 classes:
Verdict: (45) winning return but this tougher, yet still a contender.
Aunty Ann 7-10-10 (128)
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (22 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; up 2 classes; up 4lbs;
Verdict: (41) in form but this a lot tougher and not the strongest contender.
El Bandit 7-11-7 (139)
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up in class; 543-day break;
Verdict: (40) impressive on chase debut, but not seen since; nevertheless, a contender.

Very rushed look at this and while it usually goes to a horse that’s already had an outing, this time round I’m going for a fight between the Nicholls pair (hope I’ve got the right pair of his!) and expect to see Present Man repeat last year’s success from El Bandit who may just need the race.

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