Thursday 13th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 13th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:11 am

No outright winners yesterday, but not too far away. See if we can do any better today, though it is a mammoth effort to do three races!

Sandown 14.20 Cl 2 Hcap 269 (98) 8f gd/fm – 16 Run
Weights raised 2lbs
3yo = 11lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (96) gd 12 ran
Sea Shanty (92.9) 5/1 4-9-7 (93) Dr 6 by 0.05l from Tanseeb 20/13-8-1 (84) Dr 3
Apostle ((89.3) 10/1 5-9-4 (90) Dr 15 was 1.9l 5th

Basem 4-9-10 (94) Dr 1
29 Aug Cl 3 3yo Hc 8f gd/sf Sand 7/1 1.5l 1/7 off 89 SF ? Rat 84.4
tracked leaders, took closer order over 3f out, led over 2f out, held on well
Won Wood Ditton Stks on debut at Newmkt last April and C&D winner on 3rd start in late August, although appeared not to last the distance when favourite over 10f at Salisbury in October; dlr 255l; C&D suit of course, but making his first start on fast ground; only 5lbs higher than for C&D win, however, and as this is only his 5th start has plenty of scope for improvement; stable in fine form this season (23% on turf) and thus a contender despite his lack of a run.
Master Of The World 4-9-9 (93) Dr 13
28 May Cl 3 Hc 8f gd/fm Sand 5/1 2l 4/14 off 93 SF 72 Rat 88.3
held up in mid-division, headway over 2f out, hampered well over 1f out, not clear run and switched left over 1f out, stayed on but never going pace to challenge
15 May Cl 3 Hc 8f gd Nwmk 9/2 5.25l 4/13 off 93 SF 70
tracked leader, ridden over 2f out, kept on one pace
25 Apr Cl 2 Hc 8f gd Hayd 12/1 1.75l 3/15 off 93 SF 71
chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on towards finish
Admirably consistent sort who won off 87 over 8f at York last August and has put in 3 solid efforts this time round; met trouble in latest run in first-time blinkers when 2l 4th to Jacob Black (-5) over C&D here last month; dlr 16d; both wins have come on gd, though handled faster ground alright lto and class and distance appear to suit, despite being unplaced on 2 visits here; remains stuck on a mark of 93 and while 3lbs better off with JB may need help from the handicapper before regaining his winning touch; stable in form, but up in class and perhaps not the strongest of contenders today.
Jacob Black 4-9-7 (91) Dr 5
28 May Cl 3 Hc 8f gd/fm Sand 4/1 F 0.25l 1/14 off 88 SF 73 Rat 89.0
made all, driven inside final furlong, held on gamely
15 May Cl 3 Hc 8f gd Nwmk 12/1 2l 2/13 off 86 SF 73
led, ridden clear over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on one pace
Progressive in winning 3 times last season and had Master Of The World (+7) behind him when runner-up to Musaddas on his return at Nwmk last month; raised 2lbs for that, duly improved to win over C&D here a fortnight later when he had Tigers Tale (+1) and Master Of The World (+5) behind him; dlr 16d; raised 3lbs for that and meets the pair on 2lbs and 3lbs, worse terms, respectively; didn’t win on other attempt at this level, but going, distance and course all suit; up in class today, but stable in form and only like to face competition from Pallister for the lead and a course where front-runners often go well; a definite contender despite rising in class.
Tournament 4-9-5 (89) Dr 9
29 May Cl 3 Hc gd/sf 11/1 3.75l 3/11 off 89 SF 66 Rat 82.2
held up in rear, wide and headway approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on, nearest finish
Winner of a minor 3yo race in France, won a Cl 3 Hc on the AW at Lingfield on his debut for the stable at the end of December; decent enough effort at Haydock on his return and likely to be fitter today; dlr 15d; runs of the same mark, but debut in this class and at Sandown, plus has never run on faster than gd; stable having a slow season too (1/3/11) and not the strongest of contenders.
Knight Owl 5-9-1 (85) Dr 11
O2 May Cl2 Hc 9f gd/fm Nwmk 20/1 4.25l 4/10 off 85 SF 72 Rat 92.7
keen prominent, led over 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, kept on one pace
Twice a winner last season at Nottingham and Redcar and a solid effort on his return at Nwmk in the highest class he had contested to date; dlr 42d, but seems to need a month or so between races; Sandown debut, but going and distance should suit and is only 1lb above last winning mark; stable in decent form and thus a contender today.
Enlace 3-8-7 (88) Dr 2
03 Jun Cl 2 Hc 8f std Chelm 11/4 F 3.25 4/9 off 88 SF 74 Rat 81.6
chased leaders, bumped 6f out, driven over 1f out, stayed on, held by leaders inside final furlong
23 May Cl 2 3yo Hc 7f gd Good 12/1 0.02 1/11 off 80 SF 76
tracking leaders when left in lead over 4f out, edging left from 2f out, ridden and pressed when hung left inside final furlong, just held on
Typical Johnston 3yo filly making her 5th start of the season as she alternates between the AW and turf; impressive when taking a 3yo Hc at Goodwood at the end of May, but couldn’t take that form into her first clash with older horses at Chelm a fortnight later; dlr 10 days; could bounce back, but Ffrench rides few nowadays and is 0/19 on Johnston 3yos; not a contender.

Of others, Tigers Tale has Ryan Moore doing the steering today after his fine 3rd to Jacob Black over C&D here lto; however, while this is his distance, he has yet to prove he can win in the class; going or on the course, plus the stable’s not in form; so not for me today. Looking at how the race is likely to pan out, the only one likely to take on Jacob Black for the early lead is Pallister. Those failing to make the final cut from my initial shortlist are Enlace, Tournament and perhaps Master Of The World. Of the remaining three, I have to include Basem despite having enough data on him, but believe he may have to give second best to Jacob Black with Knight Owl running into 3rd.

York 14.35 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (105) 7f gd/fm – 19 Run (17 at best)
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance

So Beloved 5-9-12 (103) Dr 17
30 May Cl 2 Hc 7f hd York 10/1 1.5l 1/16 off 96 SF 82 Rat 93.3/109
held up, hampered over 1f out, not clear run when headway entering final furlong, ran on to lead final 75 yards, won going away
09 May Cl 2 Hc 7f gd/fm Asc 16/1 14.5l 18/26 off 96 SF 63
held up towards rear, never involved
18 Apr Cl 3 Hc 7f gd Thir 11/4 F 0.5l 2/13 off 90 SF 76
prominent, ridden and every chance over 1f out, ran on
Is on his third trainer in a year, but O’Meara has already got him playing a tune as he might have won by more had he had a clear run earlier over C&D here lto; even so he proved too good for Alfred Hutchinson (0) and Thirsk conqueror One Word More (+2) among others; dlr 14d; has been raised 7lbs for that, but conditions should suit with a slight question mark about the going, although he did win on firm once; stable in form and must be considered a contender.
One Word More 5-9-8 (99) Dr 11
30 May Cl 2 Hc 7f hd York 14/1 2l 4/16 off 98 SF 80 Rat 95.0
mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner
08 May Cl 2 Hc 7.5f sf Chest 5/1 23l L/8 off 99 SF 60
held up on outside, ridden over 2f out, no headway, well beaten over 1f out
18 Apr Cl 3 Hc 7f gd Thir 14/1 0.5l 1/13 off 92 SF 77
held up, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on
Came over from the Hills yard in the off-season and made a winning debut when downing So Beloved (-2) at Thirsk in April; never showed anything from a wide draw at Chester, but bounced back to finish a respectable 4th to So Beloved (-2) over C&D here a fortnight ago; dlr 14d; has actually been raised 1lb for that effort, but thanks to his rider’s claim he’ll meet the winner on 13lbs better terms for 2l; everything seems to suit and with stable in form a contender.
Alfred Hutchinson 7-9-7 (98) Dr 7
30 May Cl 2 Hc 7f hd York 8/1 1.5l 2/16 off 96 SF 80 Rat 95.1
tracked leaders, led over 1f out, headed final 75 yards, not pace of winner
14 May List Hc 8f gd York 20/1 0.25l 1/18 off 92 SF 83 Rat 92.7
tracked leaders in 5th, travelling well 2f out, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and strongly pressed throughout final furlong, held on gamely
25 Apr Cl2 Hc gd Hayd 8/1 6.25l 5/13 off 94
tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong
Has matured with age as far as turf is concerned and has put in career efforts the last twice in taking the Hambleton and finishing runner-up to So Beloved (0) over C&D here lto; dlr 14d; has a 4lb pull with him today, but am not convinced that he has the speed to win over 7f in this class, even though the stable in good form; not a contender.
Twin Appeal 4-8-12 (89) Dr 6
11 May Cl 3 Hc 7f gd/sf Donc 11/1 1l 1/15 off 85 SF 71 Rat 88.1
tracked leaders, led over 1f out, kept on, pushed out towards finish
27 Apr Cl 4 Hc 7f gd/fm Ayr 6/1 3.5l 4/12 off 85 SF 67
tracked leaders, driven over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
Improved when switched to hcaps last season winning 3 of last 4 starts; respectable return behind Al Khan (+3) at Ayr and fulfilled that promise at Doncaster lto; dlr 33d; raised 4lbs for that win, but rises to this level for the first time on his York debut while going and distance pose no problem; not sure he has the best draw in stall 7, but obviously improving and a possible contender.

Typically competitive York hcap, though I don’t know where the pace is coming from in this field. However, having taken the chance of passing on Withernsea, Free Code and Instant Attraction, I’m also going to pass on Alfred Hutchinson and expect to see So Beloved confirm lto running with One Word More and Twin Appeal.

Musselburgh 15.25 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (108) 5f gd/fm – 17 Run

Last year – 623 (107)
Demora (104.2) 10/1 5-8-8 (98) Dr 3 by 1.25l from Masamah (100.4) 25/1 8-9-5 (102) Dr 7
Caspian Prince 6/1 5-9-6 (103) Dr 17 was 4.1l 6th
Hawkeyethenoo 8/1 8-9-8 (105) Dr 15 was 4.6l 7th
Confessional 10/17-8-11 (94) Dr 11 was 5.55l 11th
Addictive Dream 9/1 7-8-12 (102) was 7.8l 14th

Boom The Groom 4-9-2 (100) Dr 2
06 Jun Cl 32 Hc 5f gf Eps 20/1 1.25 3/20 off 100 SF 78
towards rear, headway over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders
17 Apr Cl 2 Hc 5f gd/fm Newb 8/1 3.25l 5/7 off 101 SF 73
in touch, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Just 1/11 on turf, but transferred AW form in the Dash at Epsom last weekend; runs off thesame mark here and a contender if repeating that running.
Online Alexander 4-8-13 (97) Dr 7
16 May Cl 2 Hc 5f gd/fm Thir 10/1 2l 4/11 off 98 SF 76
in touch on outer, headway halfway, ridden chasing leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
02 May Gr 3 Stks 5f gd/fm Nwmk 12/1 8.75 8/9 off 99 SF 73
in touch towards rear, ridden over 1f out, never on terms
Won a couple of hcaps last August, but outclassed on her return at Nwmk; improvement at Thirsk lto though when only 2l down on Red Baron (-12); meets the winner on 8lbs better terms, so chances of reversing the form; certainly a contender.
Red Baron 6-8-9 (93) Dr 11
30 May Cl 2 Hc 5f gd York 9/2 F 0.5l 2/20 off 93 SF 82
prominent, led just over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, headed towards finish
16 May Cl 2 Hc 5f gd/fm Thir 3/1 F 1.5l 1/11 off 89 SF 79
made all on rail, edged left over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well
14 May Cl 2 5f gd York 12/1 0.25l 2/15 off 89 SF 83
slight lead, ridden and narrowly headed inside final furlong, ran on
Fit from the AW has continued his good form on turf and has now won 3 of his last 5 starts and finished runner-up in the other two; solid effort when just denied by Monsieur Joe at York lto, which was made to look better by the winner’s brace effort in the Epsom Dash last week; runs off the same mark today and could well confirm earlier Thirsk running with Online Alexander despite the change in terms; a definite contender.

A very rushed at this and last year’s first two home, Demora and Masamah could also be given a chance. However, I’m not as keen on Barnet Fair or Fast Track. Looking for front runners I’d suggest Demora, Caspian Prince and Red Baron will be to the fore and am hoping that Red Baron can see off Boom The Groom and Online Alexander.

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