Saturday 17th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 17th November

Postby Devasteve » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:46 am

Well it was good while it lasted, but my IP seems to have cottoned on that I was using a VPN so once more there is no access to the RP, which is annoying as the RPR formed an integral part of my methodology. I’m trying to gather the other information I need from different places, but it’s not really as convenient (or quick), so we’ll see how things go over the next few weeks. I had hoped to look at two races, but despite manually entering the card to Excel on a Thursday night, I’ve only managed one. So we’ll have to see if was all worth the effort!

Cheltenham 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 900 (161) 20.5f gd/sf – 20 Run (18 at best)

Last year – 911 (154) sf – 17 ran
Splash Of Ginge 25/1 9-10-6 (134) by 0.25l from Starchitect 10/1 6-11-2 (144)
Romain De Senam 10/1 5-11-3 (145) was 12.5l 5th
Guitar Pete 11/1 7-10-3 (134) was 25.25l 9th

Mister Whitaker 6-11-3 (152)
04 Nov List Ch (171 d) 20f gd Carl 3/1 2.25 off 145
chased leaders, driven to lead last, ridden out, ran on well
Improved throughout his first season over fences finishing off by winning the Close Bros NHCh here in March where he got up on the post to deny Rather Be (+6); was impressive on his return at Carlisle at the start of the month when coming to lead at the last and running out a comfortable winner from Happy Diva (-11); runs off a 7lbs higher mark today, but likely much more to come as this is only his seventh start over fences.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (48) improving chaser who has started the season in fine form and a contender.
Baron Alco 7-10-11 (146)
14 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250 d) 19.5f gd/sf Chep 4/1 Jt F 0.1l 2/9 off 142
often jumped right, raced wide, led until 3rd, chased leader, led again 4 out, 1 length ahead last, hard ridden and strongly pressed run-in, headed and rallied near finish
Only a pair of Cl 3 NCh successes to his name, but runner-up over C&D here at the 2017 Festival; not seen then until making a valiant effort and only just denied at Chepstow last month; raised 4lbs for that, but likely to be better off for the run; however, market suggests that Benatar is the stable’s main hope.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (41) yet to win at this level and perhaps the weaker of the stable entries
Benatar 6-11-0 (149) N/R
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (187 d) 21f hv NAb 15/8 F 11.5l 4/5 off 149
took keen hold, tracked leaders until led after 2nd, headed 10th, chased winner to before 2 out, no chance with clear pair after, lost modest 3rd final strides
Won first 3 starts over fences last season before finishing 3/9 in the JLT novices here in March; a mite disappointing on his return at Newton Abbot last month, although that was on hv and he was perhaps made too much use of early; market suggests he is the more favoured of the stable pair though.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (34 days);
Minus: course; up in class;
Verdict: (40) could be fancied on last season’s runnimg but will have to come on for return run to be a major contender.
Rather Be 7-11-0 (149)
13 Mar List Nov Hcap Chase (399 u) 20/5f sf 12/1 0.1l 2/19 off 143
tracked leaders, went 2nd before 2 out, driven to challenge between last 2, ridden after last, led flat, stayed on under pressure when hard pressed inside final 100 yards, headed post
Odds-on when winning 2 of first 3 starts over fences last season (UR in the other) and then fine effort to finish runner-up to Mister Whitaker (-6) in the Close Bros NHCh here in March; meets him on 9lbs better terms today, although MW has the benefit of a recent run.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: up 6lbs; 249-day break;
Verdict: (40) would be happier with a previous run, but a contender on March run here.
Kalondra 7-10-13 (148)
O5 Aug Chase (154 d) 22.5f gd Galway 7/1 F/10 off 147
a little keen, soon chased leaders, improved into 3rd from 3 out, fell next
Smart novice winning 2 of his first 3 starts last season and 3/16 to Traffic Fluide here in April; was in the stage of running well when coming down 2 out at Galway on his return in early August; has been given time to get over that and a chance on April running here.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: up 1lb; 104-day break;
Verdict: (39) promising novice last season and a contender if over his fall at Galway.

Having had to try and revamp my methodology, I hope I’ve got the winner among the above, as among those towards the front of the market I’ve got to pass on Movewiththetimes who has yet to win over fences, as well as King’s Socks and West Approach, while I also feel that Frodon has too much weight now that his rider has ridden out her claim. The question now is whittling my shortlist down to the right pair< but with Banator being a N/R that makes life a little easier. I think Baron Alco is the odd one out, which leaves me with Mister Whitaker, Rather Be and Kalondra who are preferred in that order.

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