Sunday 18th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 18th November

Postby Devasteve » Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:15 am

Looks as if I should have stayed with the top two rated yesterday, but still experimenting and pleased I’ve managed to do this in only six hours today; the acid test will be how it turns out of course!

Cheltenham 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 563 (152) 16.5f gd – 20 Run (18 at best)

Last year – 570 (163) sf – 13 ran
Elgin 10/1 5-10-8 (145) by 0.25l from Misterton 10/1 6-10-0 (137)
Old Guard 8/1 6-10-7 (149) was 4.75l 3rd
Nietzsche 12/1 4-9-9 (137) was 14.75l 6th
Mohaayed 9/1 5-10-0 (137) was 54.25l 11th

Verdana Blue 6-11-11 (151)
10 Nov Gr 2 Hdl (340 u) 15f gd Chep 5/2 2.25l 1/7 off 146
tracked leaders, travelling well when switched left before last, led before the last, pushed readily clear run-in
Promising start to hurdles career winning 2 of 5 starts in 2016/17 season and finishing 4/16 in the mares novices at the 2017 Festival; won a Cl 2 HHd at Ascot last November and finished 3/17 in a Gr 3 HHD there before Christmas, but failed to match that level in 2 subsequent starts; fit from an AW success, beat Old Guard (+13) in a listed hdl at Kempton last month and followed up by taking the Elite Hdl at Wincanton last weekend; carries a 5lbs penalty for that returned to hcaps and is a de facto17lbs worse off with OG for 7l at Kempton; obviously an improving hurdler, but hard to see her as being well handicapped and a little more exposed than your average past winner.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: (47) fit and in form, but not a particularly well handicapped contender returning to hcaps.
Western Ryder 6-11-5 (145)
14 Apr Gr 1 Nov Hd (560 d) 20f sf Aint 13/2 6.25l 5/12 off 145
held up in touch, travelling strongly when blundered and lost momentum briefly 4 out, every chance 3 out, hung left and beaten going to last, stayed on same pace flat
Fifth in the 2017 Champion bumper and twice a winner over hurdles early last season before finishing a creditable 6/19 in the Supreme Novices despite being hampered and then 5/12 in the Mersey Novices at Aintree; doesn’t have the benefit of a run, but stable in good enough form and not badly handicapped on best form.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down in class;
Minus: 218-day break;
Verdict: (42) promise last 2 starts and a possible contender on his return.
Silver Streak 5-11-5 (145)
20 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (280 d) 16f gd/sf Ffos Las 3/1 Jt F 3l 1/8 off 139
held up, headway after 5th, ridden to lead approaching last, driven and edged left flat, ran on well
Entering his third seasons over hurdles and recorded his biggest win to date when taking the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock in May; followed up by taking the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on his return last month; has been raised 6lbs for that his fifth HHd success, which is way more than your average winner; worry too that the stable has now hot a dry spell (1/44 in last 14 days).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs; trainer form;
Verdict: (42) fit and in form, which is more than you can say for trainer, but despite being the right age, doesn’t seem to fit the mould and not the strongest contender.
Storm Rising 5-10-11 (137)
02 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (70 d) 16f gd Weth 2/5 F 1.5l 1/7 off 123
raced keenly tracking leaders, closer in 2nd at 5th, led 3 out, came clear between last 2, easily
Irish import who seems to have quickly found his footing in the UK winning both starts for his new connections this season, over C&D here in October and at Wetherby a fortnight or so ago; runs off a 14lbs higher mark today and is way up in class from what he’s seen before, but could again run well.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (16 days);
Minus: class; up 14lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) more exposed than most recent winners, but that mainly in Ireland so not entirely ignored.
Deyrann De Carjac 5-10-2 (128)
13 Oct Cl 4 Nov Hdl (48 u) 16f gd Chep 7/2 2l 2/9 off 126
tracked leaders, went 2nd from 3 out, challenged approaching last, kept on but no impression on winner towards finish
Just the 4 starts over hurdles, getting off the mark on the third attempt in a Cl 4 novice at Warwick in May; creditable 2/9 on his return in a similar novice at Chepstow last month and now tries his hand at handicapping off a reasonable mark.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; hcap debut;
Verdict: (36) not much to go on, but could be let in lightly here and a possible contender.

A race in which there are some strong past stats – probably means they’ll go bump this year! However, none of the last 12 winners started at longer than 12/1 and none had won more than one hcap hdl. To add to the suggestion we’re looking for young unexposed hurdlers, 10/12 were 4/5yo who’d never run in more than 2 HHd; in fact 11/12 had not run in more than 9 hurdles overall. Interestingly, 10/12 had run at the previous Cheltenham Festival. Only Charli Parcs. Westerm Ryder and Nube Negara of the ones in the betting pass on that score.

After yesterday maybe I should stick to my ratings, but I don’t see Verdana Blue as being particularly well handicapped and while this may be a little short for past winner Old Guard nowadays, he may well finish in front of VB on 17lbs better terms. Stable form worries me for Silver Streak on his first sight of the Cheltenham hurdles, plus again he’s more exposed than most recent winners. Storm Rising is another that looks more exposed than desired, but most of that was in Ireland and he’s done well since crossing to these shores. However, this is a big jump in class and again I’ll pass. That leaves me with a couple of rather unexposed types in Nube Negara and Deyrann De Carjac, and Western Ryder. As a 6yo, the latter is older than most recent past winners, but is not overexposed over hurdles. Thus I’m prepared to go with Western Ryder from perhaps Deyrann De Carjac with Nube Negara edging out Verdana Blue for the minor places.

justraymondo
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:57 am

Re: Sunday 18th November

Postby justraymondo » Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:19 am

Nice write up.


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