Saturday 24th November

[Devasteve]

Rather disappointed with the Haydock fields so I ended up only looking at the Ascot chase. Hopefully I’ll do better than last week!

Ascot 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 782 (154) 17f gd – 13 Run

Last year – 626 (165) gd/sf – 8 ran
Sir Valentino 16/1 8-11-6 (159) by 0.5l from Cepage 11/2 5-10-0 (139)
San Benedeto 2/1 F 6-10-13 (157) was 2.02l 4th

Ozzie The Oscar 7-11-12 (154)
06 Nov Gr 2 Hcap Chase (385 u) 17.5f gd Exe 2/1 F 0.5l 2/5 off 151
led, headed briefly 4 out, soon hard pressed, ridden between last 2, headed narrowly flat, kept on, held near finish
Won 3 of his 5 chase starts last season including a Cl 2 HCh at Warwick at the end of May when San Benedeto (+1) was a distant 3rd; finished 3rd in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on his return in October, and followed that by finishing runner-up in the Haldon God Cup at Exeter earlier in the month; has been raised 3lbs for that but likely to strip fitter today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (18 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (50) improving young chaser whose likely to improve for his Exeter run, a contender.
Modus 8-11-8 (150)
27 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (370 d) 16f gd Chelt 4/1 0.1l 1/7 off 146
held up towards rear on outside, closed from 6th, mistake 4 out, not fluent 3 out, 2nd before last bend, led 2 out, headed flat, rallied to lead again last strides
Fine first season over fences winning 3 of his 6 starts and improved to gain a determined victory at Cheltenham on his return last month when he just outpointed Duke Of Navan (-5); has been raised 4lbs for that, but meets DON on 2lbs better terms.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (46) improving chaser who is weighted to confirm Cheltenham with DON and a contender.
Cyrname 6-11-8 (150)
04 Nov List Chase (170 d) 20f gd Carl Ev F 4.25l 3/5 off 150
led, headed approaching 2 out, soon rallied, every chance last, no extra closing stages
Excellent first season over fences winning 3 of 5 starts including a pair of Gr 2 NCh at Kempton; decent effort on his return at Carlisle and will likely come on for the run; drops in trip for his return to hcap company and another of Nicholls’s 3 race entries.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (20 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (45) impressive first season over fences and likely to come on for Carlisle return, a contender.
San Benedeto 7-11-10 (152)
06 Nov Gr 2 Hcap Chase (385 u) 17.5f gd Exe 5/1 7.5l 3/5 off 155
tracked leaders in 4th, effort 4 out, every chance 2 out, driven and not quicken before last, soon ridden, no impression with front pair flat
Runs off a 5lbs lower mark than when 4th in last year’s renewal, although the fact he carries 11lbs more physical weight gives an indication of the difference in class between the two races; was largely disappointing thereafter though and hard to see him reversing recent Exeter running with Ozzie The Oscar, as his rider has now ridden out her claim, which negates his 3lbs drop in the weights.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (18 days); down in class; down 3lbs;
Minus: lack of form in 2 starts this season;
Verdict: (44) looks the weakest of Nicholls’s trio and not a strong contender.
Duke Of Navan 10-11-5 (147)
27 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (370 u) 16f gd Chelt 20/1 0.1l 2/10 off 144
held up in rear, keen early, headway on inside 3 out, challenged before last, led flat, headed last strides
Showed decent form last season on his first full season back after one race in 2 years, winning at Doncaster at the end of January; has since 3rd to Theinval (+2) at Ayr in April and just denied by Modus (+5) on his return at Cheltenham last month; actually meets M on 2lbs worse terms today having been raised 3lbs.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (28 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (41) likely to give it a go, but as a 10yo not the strongest contender.
Theinval 8-11-8 (150)
Smooth winner at Ayr when last seen in April where he was comfortable clear of Duke Of Navan (+2) in 3rd; however, normally needs a run or two to get his season underway.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down 3lbs;
Minus: course; 217-day break;
Verdict: (41) perhaps not the strongest contender making his season debut.

Past renewals have generally been won by younger chasers and prior to last year the previous 9 had all been won by well fancied horses at 8/1 or less. Recent form and current season run also seem to be plus factors. That being the case I’m happy enough to believe that the winner should come from the half dozen on my shortlist. Of these, I’m happy to pass on Theinval who doesn’t normally show a lot first up, while Duke Of Navan as a 10yo might find the younger horses a little too quick for him. I also think that I can pass on San Benedeto who looks to have the weakest claims of Nicholls’s three entries. That leaves it between Ozzie The Oscar, Modus and Cyrname. Now it’s just a matter of getting them in the right order. I think that Cyrname may be the better of the Nicholls’ pair, but am not sure that he’ll get the better of Ozzie The Oscar. So for me it’s Ozzie The Oscar from Cyrname and Modus with Duke Of Navan best of the rest.