Saturday 1st December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 1st December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:05 am

Not doing too well of late and had intended to look at the Rehearsal as well as what used to be the Hennessy, but wasn’t really excited by the field for either, so have just stuck to the one. Let’s hope I find a little more luck that I’ve had recently!

Newbury 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 1424 (163) 26f gd/sf – 14 Run (12 at best) - going now sf

Last year – 1424 (265) gd/sf – 20 ran
Total Recall 9/2 F 8-10-8 (147) by 0.25l from Whisper 8/1 9-11-8 (161)
American 5/1 7-11-4 (157) mistakes, weakened 16th and PU 4 out

Elegant Escape 6-11-10 (155)
11 Nov List Hcap Chase (170 d) 24f sf Sand 100/30 1/4 0.5l off 151
tracked leader, not fluent 13th or 15th, challenging when mistake last, nearly 2 lengths to make up flat, rallied and stayed on well towards finish, led close home
Promising first season over fences beating Black Corton (+3) by 0.75l over C&D here last December, although subsequently going down to him by 1.5l at level weights at Kempton on Boxing Day; won at Exeter in February and not disgraced when finishing 3rd in both the RSA at Cheltenham and Mildmay novices at Aintree; made perhaps heavier weather of his Sandown return last month than he should have, but displayed determination to get up late on and deny Thomas Patrick (-2); has been raised 4lbs for that, but is likely to have come on for the race and could well confirm the form with cleaner jumping.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (20 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (55) conditions suit and in form, so must be considered as contender.
Thomas Patrick 6-11-3 (148)
11 Nov List Hcap Chase (170 d) 24f sf Sand 6/1 0.5l 2/4 off 148
led, not fluent 14th, ridden before 2 out, stayed on, headed close home
Took well to fences when switching to the bigger obstacles after the turn of the year winning 3 of his 4 starts including a Gr 3 HCh at Aintree in April; not disgraced when runner-up to Elegant Escape (+2) at Sandown last month and meets his opponent on 5lbs better terms today and will likely be helped by any further softening of the ground.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: going; up in class;
Verdict: (51) looks an improving sort and has to be considered a contender, especially if the ground softens further.
Ms Parfois 7-11-1 (146)
13 Apr Gr 1 Nov Chase (560 d) 25f sf Aint 9/2 3,75l 2/9 off 146
held up in touch, tracked leaders on outside 5 out, led 3 out, ridden when hard pressed after next, headed before last, kept on, well held in clear 2nd final 110 yards
Promising mare who won a pair of Listed NCh before finishing runner-up in Grade class on her 3 final starts, behind Black Corton (+7) at Ascot in February, ahead of Sizing Tennessee at Cheltenham and ahead of Elegant Escape at Aintree to close out her season; has had a breathing operation between seasons and starting off the same mark could well prove a danger; however, stable not in the greatest from of late.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: trainer (14d – 0/14); 232-day break;
Verdict: (50) can be fancied on last season’s best form, especially following a breathing operation; question about her first up though with the stable out of form.
The Young Master 9-10-8 (139)
16 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (160 d) 25f gd Chelt 9/2 8l 1/11 off 135
made all, pressed when not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, driven clear flat, stayed on well
Back to form this term after a while in the wilderness, albeit he’s now going back up in class under a 4lbs penalty; however, he did win off 148 when taking the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April 2016.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: course; 4lbs penalty; trainer (14d – 1/24); up 2 classes;
Verdict: (41) in form, but going back up in class and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Black Corton 7-11-12 (157)
03 Nov Gr 2 Chase (590 u) 24f gd Weth 5/4 F 2l 2/4 off 153
keen, led, jumped awkwardly 3rd and rider lost irons and reins, made fantastic recovery and regained irons 5th, not fluent 7th, headed next, tracked winner, not fluent 4 out, ridden to challenge 2 out, no extra flat
Partnership had a fine first season over fences claiming the Kauto Star Novices at Kempton among their Gr 1 novice successes; under the circumstances, did well to finish runner-up to Definitly Red in the Charlie Hall on his return last month; a lesser rider would likely have departed at the third; merits consideration if getting his act together.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (20 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: up 4lbs;
Verdict: (37) likely to have come on for Wetherby and no surprise were he to make the frame, a contender.
Dingo Dollar 6-11-3 (148)
Showed promise over hurdles last year at a lower level and has had a spin over hurdles to set him up for this term; however, this is a big jump in class from anything he’s faced before.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (23 days);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: (41) likely to improve this season, but yet to prove himself at this level and not the strongest contender.

A race that usually goes to progressive young chasers with little or no HCh experience, but already chase winners over at least 24f. So looking for 6yo to 8yo contenders with an OR of at least 145 – none have won off lower in the past 12 years – I think I can rule out The Young Master despite him being in good form. I’m also against Dingo Dollar who has it to prove at this level. One interesting one that hasn’t made my shortlist is Beware The Bear who won last season’s Rehearsal Chase but this year swerves Newcastle for Newbury; no surprise were he to run well either.

However, my final four consist of Elegant Escape, Thomas Patrick, Ms Parfois and Black Corton, it’s just the order that’s proving difficult. I always think a prior run is a plus, unless the horse has shown the ability to win on return. Ms Parfois hasn’t as yet, so she’s passed over in favour of Elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick who met at Sandown last month. At the revised weights Thomas Patrick should be favoured, especially as the going has now changed to sf, but he may prefer further and I’m sticking with Elegant Escape from Thomas Patrick with Ms Parfois just holding off Black Corton for the minor placings.

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