Saturday 8th December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 8th December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:44 am

Not doing at all well of late and then up turns Aintree today, another of those problematic courses. Part of that, of course, are the Grand National fences, which some horses love and others just can’t get on with. Let’s hope I’ve picked some of the former today and we get a change of luck and a long awaited winner. Let’s also hope that having gone from soft to heavy and then back to soft, I’ve got the going right at last!

Aintree 13.30 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 842 (160) 26f sf – 18 Run

Last year – 814 (159) hv – 15 ran
Blaklion 7/4 F 8-11-6 (153) by 9l from The Last Samuri 7/1 9-11-12 (159)
Highland Lodge 12/1 11-10-5 (138) was 14l 3rd
Frederici 33/1 8-10-0* (133) was 16.75l 4th * 4lbs ooh
Vieux Lion Rouge 7/1 8-11-5 (152) was 65.25l 7th

Ballyoptic 8-11-7 (155)
21 Apr Gr 3 Hcap (1220 u) 32 gf Ayr 9/1 0.02l 2/21 off 149
held up, closed gradually from 20th, 3rd 2 out, went 2nd flat, stayed on, challenged towards finish, just denied
Very promising first season over fences winning on both sf and hv ground before only just being denied in the Scottish National when last seen in April; first sight of teh National fences, but likely to continue improvement this term; stable has good record in this race and not necessarily here to make up the numbers behind stable companion and last year’s winner Blaklion.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs; 231-day break;
Verdict: (51) fitness a question, of course, but a contender on last season’s form and conditions should suit.
Don Poli 9-11-12 (160)
12 Feb 2017 Gr 1 Chase (740 u) 24.5f sf Leop 9/4 F 1.5l 3/7 off 161
close up, on terms from 4th, slight lead 11th, pressed from before straight, headed at last, dropped to 3rd and kept on without matching 1st 2 close home
Not seen since finishing 3/7 to Sizing John in the 2017 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown; class act though and won the 2015 Lexus when with Mullins;; plus has won over the Mildmay course here; can go well fresh and no problems with the ground; however, asking a bit much, perhaps, to return from a 664-day break and give weight to the field in making his hcap debut over such demanding fences.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down 1lb; down in class;
Minus: Nat Course (?); HCh debut; 664-day break;
Verdict: (45) classy chaser, but a contender with questions one would think.
Blaklion 9-11-10 (158)
08 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (840 d) 29f gd/sf Sand 6/1 F PU/20 off 161
held up towards rear, never on terms, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out
Took last year’s renewal in smooth fashion off a 5lbs lower mark, although he had had a previous outing; ran well enough to finish runner-up to Yala Enki in the National Trial in dire conditions at Haydock in February, but never got further than the first fence when BD in the main event last season; inclined to forgive his final outing at Sandown a fortnight later, as this was obviously an afterthought following the National disappointment; merits consideration as a 9yo, although would be happier with a previous run.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 3lbs;
Minus: 224-day break;
Verdict: (45) has to be considered on last year’s performance here, a contender.
Present Man 8-11-3 (151)
10 Nov List Hcap Chase (340 d) 25f gd Winc 5/1 2.5l 1/16 off 144
jumped well, led until 5th, chased leader, led again 12th until 15th, led again 3 out, stayed on gamely
Was winning the Badger Ales for the second year in a row on his return at Wincanton last month, albeit off only a 2lbs higher mark; runs off a 7lbs higher burden here, plus while he won the ’17 Badger on sf ground, his best form has generally been shown on better going and he’s never tackled hv over fences; nevertheless, not entirely disregarded as he is fit and in form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) won first 2 starts last season, but harder this time round as he faces a tougher challenge on his Aintree debut; not the strongest contender, perhaps.
Ultragold 10-11-0 (148)
No doubt he loves these fences as he was winning the Topham Trophy for the second year in a row when coming home from Shanahan’s Turn here in April, plus was runner-up in the Grand Sefton at the corresponding here last year; had an outing over hurdles at Cheltenham towards the end of October, to blow the cobwebs away, so should be fit; however, while I have no problem with the fences or the ground, the distance is a major question as he has only a single placed effort over 24f early in his career.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (42 days);
Minus: 7lbs higher than for Topham win; no chase win beyond 21f;
Verdict: (36) distance worries make him a contender with major questions.
Vieux Lion Rouge 9-10-12 (146)
Took the 2016 renewal off a 4lbs lower mark and beat Blaklion (+6) in the 2017 National Trial at Haydock before finishing 6th to One For Arthur in the main event; disappointed throughout last season, although was running on softer ground throughout; had wind surgery in August, plus starts this season a 4lbs lower mark than when finishing 9th in the National here in April; just wish the Pipe yard was in better form though.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 4lbs;
Minus: 238-day break;
Verdict: (35) won 2016 renewal on his return, so doesn’t need a lot of getting ready and a possible contender.

The last couple of years have seen a change in that the prize has gone to younger, less-exposed horses, whereas in earlier years you were looking for older more experienced chasers. Nevertheless, we do have the last three winners, Highland Lodge, Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion all vying to follow Hello Bud as a two-time winner.

However, as a 12yo I fear age may be catching up with Highland Lodge and I have to pass this time round. I’m also not that enthralled b y the chances of Crosshue Boy despite his fair novice form last season. I’m also passing on Elliot’s Noble Endeavor who missed last season but showed promise in the 2016/17 season. While I may be wrong in discarding those, I could also make a case for Missed Approach who won the Kim Muir last March, but you can’t include them all!

From the half dozen who did make my shortlist, I should perhaps be wary of discarding Ultragold given his love for the Aintree fences, but he has yet to prove he stays the distance. Don Poli is another Elliot entry making a return after a long break, but he does have a load of back class. Nevertheless, making his hcap chase debut over these fences and giving weight to the field after a 664-day break seems a sensible enough reason to pass as a likely win, although he could well make the frame. I’m also not entirely sold on the chances of Present Man over this trip in these conditions, especially off a career high mark.

That leaves me with the Twiston-Davis pair. Ballyoptic and Blaklion, and Pipe’s previous winner Vieux Lion Rouge coming back from a breathing operation. I’m not sure that conditions will be ideal for the latter, plus I have worries on the stable’s current form, so I’m going for Ballyoptic from Blaklion with perhaps Don Poli holding off Vieux Lion Rouge and Present Man for the minor places.

Aintree 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 406 (151) 21f sf – 11 Run

Last year – 433 (144) hv – 11 ran
Gas Line Boy 9/2 F 11-11-10 (142) by 4.5l from Ultragold 16/1 9-11-9 (141)
Captain Redbeard 9/1 8-11-0 (137) was 40l 6th

Catamarin Du Seuil 6-11-7 (142)
17 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (100 u) 19.5f gd Weth 5/2 8l 1/6 off 133
tracked leaders, led going well 3 out, came clear between last 2,easily
Steady progress over fences last season, although not seen after winning at Wetherby at the end of January; nevertheless, returned in good heart when an easy winner back there last month; doesn’t appear restricted by distance or going and while he’s up 9lbs and in class too, he is fit and in form.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 9lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (45) improving chaser and a contender if taking to the fences.
Crievehill 6-11-11 (146)
23 Sept Cl 3 Hcap Chase (160 d) 20f gd Uttox 11/2 2l 2/13 off 139
mid-division, close up 4th, ridden after 3 out, stayed on to chase winner flat, always held
Progressive first season over fences, especially when winning at Sandown in March; runner-up on his 2 subsequent starts including at Uttoxeter on his return in September; runs off a 7lbs higher mark here, but distance and going would appear to suit, although he is up in class.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs; up in class; 76-day break;
Verdict: (45) improving sort and could well overcome his rise in mark, a contender.
Captain Redbeard 9-11-9 (144)
3 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (320 u) 25.5f gd Hayd 5/2 F 1.75l 3/6 off 144
in touch, mistake 1st, hampered 10th, hampered and left in 3rd at 13th, every chance from 3 out, no extra closing stages
Runs off 7lbs higher than when a distant 6th in last year’s renewal, though subsequently beat Cataraman Du Seuil (-2) in the Haydock mud; seems better in such conditions so any further rain would suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: course;
Verdict: (40) at least has recovered from his National mishap and a possible contender.
Forest Des Aigles 7-10-13 (134)
03 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (130 d) 21.5f gd Ayr 8/1 3l 1/6 off 130
chased leaders, lost place after 5th, soon last, closed when mistake 4 out, led last, stayed on well to draw clear flat
Completed a hat-trick of chase wins before finding a Gr 2 HCh in the Haydock mud too in January; no problems dropped back in both trip and class for his return at Ayr last month; only raised 4lbs for that and further improvement possible; main worry is stable form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) back in form and a contender if the rains don’t come
Shananhan’s Turn 10-11-0 (135)
Carries only 1lb more than when runner-up to Ultragold in the Topham last April; however, PU at Punchestown a fortnight later, and hasn’t exactly set the world alight in 2 starts on his return this season, finishing L/6 when dropped back to 16f at Cheltenham last month.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (22 days); down 1lb;
Minus: inconsistent;
Verdict: (38) a contender if refinding April’s form, but can he?

Among others worth a mention are top weight, but I’m inclined to pass. I have a sneaky feeling I might be wrong in passing on Shanahan’s Turn too, but can’t honestly find any reason to include him any further. Unless there’s further rain I’m not sure conditions will be demanding enough to suit Captain Redbeard, so that’s another pass. From the remaining trio, Catamarin Du Seuil looks to have most to do, so I’m going with Crievehill from Forest Des Aigles with Catamarin Du Seuil holding off Captain Redbeard for the minor placings.

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