Mozan

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Mozan

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:23 am

I have investigated Mozan a few years ago and thought now I have the time to return to the mathematics, quite complex so took a little while to refresh myself on the various mathematical connections and relationships, from what I remember there was some merit in the approach if used with other handicapping methods, though it might just be a very sophisticated and complex way of producing random selections, which got me thinking if I 'lay' Mozan over some of my approaches and if the approach is still in profit then this is way of randomly selecting horses from the list of handicapped horses, the idea is that this random picking if still showing a profit then the approach is more likely to stand up as it can stand up to scrutiny

If any one is interested in looking into this approach I'm happy to post more details and/or hear from those who may have/are using the method in some way, searching Mozan numerology should bring up some websites if anyone wants to explore more

I have created a simplified Mozan spreadsheet using the horses name to develop the numerology for the approach, and I got some interesting results yesterday

I'll post my Mozan selections in the selections thread for a while - just for fun - and see how this works out - this is just a trail so I am not backing these, so will just follow, and keep some basic stats to monitor
Catspajamas

Trifolium
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Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:59 pm

Re: Mozan

Postby Trifolium » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:28 pm

Hi I am new here and always looking at different methods at putting the patternform cards to use.

Are you just saying that you are just randomly producing selections without any research into anything?

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:12 pm

Hi Trifolium, depends how you view Numerology, the Mozan approach uses mathematics to work out the numerological value of the horses names, the first initial, the Day's Numerology Value, and a few other values and then looks for connections, in other words the more values that are equal to each other then this suggests numerological at least the horse has a good chance of winning, some says this is just a complicated randomiser, however when I first looked at this I just took the pure Mozan value and found it did not produce a profit, however what I have done this time is taken three handicapping methods and where the horse selected by each handicapping method has the highest Mozan value then this is a selection, the three handicapping methods produce a lot of selections and using Mozan it uses Numerology to narrow down the field

Initially three handicapping methods that do produce winners are used, then the experiment is to see if 'randomly' choosing selections from those thrown up by these three handicapping methods can produce a profit, so no I am not just randomly selecting horses but first using Patternform to handicap a pool of horses to carry out a Mozan selection method on this pool of handicapped horses

The challenge I find with horse racing is that using several handicapping methods can throw up a lot of possible selections that one could not realistically bet on all of them, as this would be far too many.

Mozan gives a numerological value to each horse in a race and the horse with the highest value is the Mozan selection, then this Mozan selection has to be a selection from one or more of the three handicapping methods

As I say more of an experiment to use Mozan to narrow the selections once I have list of potential selections, for example the three handicapping methods might throw up 50 or more selection on nay one day, too many to bet on, so using Mozan I then get down to say 9 actual bets like today

The Mozan Manual I think is still free on websites, I would say it is not an easy read, and a lot of it I could not follow, hence developed my own simplified Mozan approach, I use just use the name of the horse and work out the Numerological value for it, which reducing the the name of the horse to a single digit number between 1 and 9, I then compare this value to a few other numerological values such as the Day Value, doe example the numerological value for today is 3, and the Mozan manual says that the date value for today is 1, so if the horses value is equal to any of these then these are called Mozan Connections, the manual uses may more factors than I have such as converting the name of race to a numerological value

It's really quite easy as the spreadsheet I have created does all the calculations, I then just look for the horse with the most Mozan Connections in each race and if this then is in the Handicapped Pool of selections it is a bet

I would say this is more fun/experimental and only for really small bets if following with real money, I would say all the selections are based on form criteria of some form and then I use Mozan to narrow the pool to a manageable number of bets, I thought it might be a way to still bet on some of these horses using a Mozan method to make the final pick

Hope this helps

I'll keep posting for a while just see if there is any merit in this approach
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:31 am

Here's an example Mozan race, the Mozan I have developed uses 8 Mozan calculations, and the idea is look for how many of the 8 for each horse match, the more matches the higher the Mozan 'rating', these are the Mozan Connections, in this example, two horses are highlighted as having the highest number of Mozan connections i.e. 2

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In the case of Scorpion Sid I.D = C.N & No.H = D.F.N.H, Burning Sands is the oner horse with 2 Mozan Connections, and because Scorpion Kid is matched to one of the 6 Handicapping Systems I am testing it becomes a bet for today
Catspajamas

Astrohandicapper
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Astrohandicapper » Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:52 am

Hello my friend
I have read he book and would like to try an automated spreadsheet that can help me calculate the different values needed to apply the method

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:12 am

Hello friend,
I produced this a a while ago now, and have not used it for a while, I must admit the book is very much open to interpretation and following the work that was done by myself and the other forum members who got involved, it have some success, and one forum member even wrote his own programme, I stuck with the spreadsheet, though would say it was my version of the calculation, it was fun to do, but I did reach the conclusion that it was a very sophisticated randomiser, I could not after testing the selection bet on them as it did not produce a profit, I'm not sating that the Mozan approach does not work, just that my way of calculating it did not produce the results, I am happy to share the spreadsheet, but would need to find it and look over it to see what data I used etc. I cannot say I would use it bet with, but it is a an interesting project to explore, perhaps you have some ideas on how to get the method to produce a profit.
Catspajamas

Astrohandicapper
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Astrohandicapper » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:18 pm

Thank you my friend, yes I have used some astrological and numerological angles, also biorhythms.
Looking forward to contribute to your peoject

Regards

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Catspajamas » Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:12 am

I just had a look through my files and dug out the single race Mozan, much easier to work with than whole cards, and I put in 13:15 and Musselburgh, and removed the NR's ensuring the remaining runners where in race card order (Cloth) so that the Mozan calculation was based on the cloth number. I got an interesting calculation. I also used some basic form ratings to created and overall form rank (very crude) but surprisingly interesting.

The race identified Dr Hooves as having the top two Mozan criteria, i.e. having the V.H equal to the D.V and F.N.H, plus was ranked second on form.

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There was no actual Mozan where all 4 C's ticked, but the D.V and F.N.H connection was strong, and the NuVa was also connected to the C.N and V.P

I'll take a look at a few races tomorrow and see how they calculate, now I have updated the Spreadsheet it only takes a few minutes to entre the data as long as it's a smallish field.
Catspajamas

Astrohandicapper
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Astrohandicapper » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:28 am

The spreadsheet looks great. I ran into a couple of programs to calculate the Mozan variables, but I am mostly interested in a spreadsheet, since I like to make all my astrological and numerological calculations using excel.

I am also looking for Jockeys info, their birth dates, but I havent found a good site with that info

any good source?


Regards
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Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Mozan

Postby Catspajamas » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:38 pm

Wow! That looks very impressive, I know a guy from one of these threads who developed a programme too, I was not able to get a fully working model in my head of all the Mozan terms and meanings, a lot is quite beyond my understanding, but I made my best interpretation and made some adjustments so that I could get it to work in Spreadsheet, as some of Mozan calculations were beyond me to put into a Spreadsheet, but it does have a lot of the key Mozan ideas in it.

As for Jockey DOB's, I have not seen that something that is in the public domain, I was wondering though is data that is such as their strike rate, number of runs/wins, their weight etc. which are public data may be something to use, These data could be converted to a single digit, Also a big difference is found when using declared vs actual or as near actual as one can get before the start.

I did try the Mozan program that that was made available to me, but I found it quite hard to use and process the data into a format it needed in order to run, the program was quite amazing and sophisticated, but I found the Spreadsheet as you say easier to handle and more versatile.

I'll wait for the 11 AM prices so that NR's are declared and it is more likely that those left in will still run, one thing I do wonder though is about selecting races to run through the Mozan calculations, first and last race of the day sounds a possible or do you use an astrological approach to deciding which races to work with?

The last race yesterday had a Mozan in the form of Le Crunch, with Windswept Girl having the Chaldean Number, and top rated on form

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If following selections from Mozan then I feel it best to select a picking method and using it consistently, like betting on the Mozan only or the ones that are D.V matched, rather than moving from selection method to selection method, need to use a consistent picking method the test it, the Mozan selection here was second to an E/W bet would have been acceptable here
Catspajamas


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