Sunday 30th December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 30th December

Postby Devasteve » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:48 am

Was literally never at the races yesterday, even with the preferred chase. Still, can’t get greedy! Surprised to find a Cl 2 HCh today, not that it’s the best I’ve ever seen. Still, here’s my picks and hope for a change of luck.

Haydock 14.00 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 156 (141) 27.5f sf – 10 Runners

Last year – 138 (132) hv – 9 ran
Emperors Choice 7/2 F 10-11-1 (124) by 3.5l from West Of The Edge 8/1 9-11-8 (128)

West Of The Edge 10-10-13 (128)
09 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (310 u) 32.5f gd/sf Kel 13/2 20l 8/16 off 130
in touch, blundered and dropped to mid-division 15th, ridden to chase leaders after 5 out, outpaced when hampered 3 out, weakened after next
Runner-up off the same mark in last season’s renewal before occupying the same position in the Eider at Newcastle in February; has followed a similar path this year, returning in a HHd at Ffos Las in November before running in a December chase, this year the Scottish Borders National at Kelso at the start of the month; didn’t jump particularly fluently, but should have put an edge on him for this, and Sam obviously believes he’s got a better chance than either of his father’s entries.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (21 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: (41) has form at this level and has to be considered a contender again this year.
Another Venture 7-11-3 (132)
08 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (130 d) 23.5f hv Chep 5/1 23l 5/10 off 133
prominent until ridden and weakened approaching 3 out
Back-to-back winner at up to 25f after the turn of the year and sure to have come on for his return in the Welsh National Trial earlier in the month in which he finished behind Ami Desbois (+3) and Back To The Thatch (-2); this only ninth chase start and improvement to be expected this year, plus gets on well with his claiming rider.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days); down 1lb;
Minus: class; course (?);
Verdict: (40) conditions would look to suit and a likely contender if coming on for Chepstow return.
Back To The Thatch 6-10-12 (127)
08 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (130 d) 23.5f hv Chep 9/2 6l 4/10 off 127
held up, progress on inside 9th, ridden approaching 3 out, one pace under pressure from 2 out
Got off the mark over fences at Chepstow back in January and was going well when falling in the Eider the following month; wasn’t entirely fluent in the Midlands National being PU before 3 out; likely needed the race on his return at Bangor in November and ran by no means badly when splitting Ami Desbois and Another Venture at Chepstow earlier in the month; as a 6yo, entitled to improve again for that, but no form as yet beyond 23.5f.
Plus: class (F); going (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (22 days);
Minus: distance;
Verdict: (36) another young chaser that’s entitled to improve this season and a contender.
Ami Desbois 8-11-4 (133)
08 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (130 d) 23.5f hv Chep 16/1 5l 3/10 off 133
made most, headed approaching 5 out, not fluent 3 out, hard ridden after 2 out, one pace flat
Won first 2 chase starts at Wetherby at the end of last year, but found Gr class beyond him in 2 starts after the turn of the year, being PU on both occasions; returned in the Rehearsal at Newcastle but never got beyond the 3rd fence where he UR; showed much better form in the Welsh National Trial at Chepstow, leading till the 12th and right there until hitting 3 out when already ridden and finally finishing 3rd ahead of Back To The Thatch and Another Venture; runs off the same mark again today, but slight question as to whether he actually stays this trip.
Plus: class (F); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (22 days);
Minus: distance; course (?);
Verdict: (33) contender on Chepstow form if staying the trip.

With consistent form in short supply, this could well throw up a surprise. However, with top weight Dell’ Arca failing to build on his return in the Kerry National, I’m rather left with a trio from the Welsh National Trial at Chepstow plus last year’s runner-up, West Of The Edge. Looking at the Chepstow race, Ami Desbois finished ahead of Back To The Thatch and Another Venture and on the face of it they should again finish in that order. However, it was the second season start for both Ab and BT3 whereas AV was making his season return. Moreover, neither Ab nor BT3 are proven beyond 23.5f whereas AV has already won over 25f on sf and is thus my preference from the trio on his second run back. However, whether he can get the better of last year’s runner-up WOTE is another matter, as he looks to have been primed for this. So my hopeful duo today is West Of The Edge from Another Venture with perhaps Back To The Thatch reversing Chepstow form with Ami Desbois.

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