Tuesday 1st January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Tuesday 1st January

Postby Devasteve » Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:01 am

Happy New Year to all and let’s hope 2019 will bring better fortune than 2018 did! At least a decent meeting to greet the New Year at Cheltenham, so fingers crossed my picks do better than those over the weekend did!

Cheltenham 12.50 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 155 (146) 26.5f gd/sf – 10 Run

Last year – 156 (144) hv – 5 ran
Vyta Du Roc 15/8 F 9-11-6 (138) by 22l from Lamb Or Cod 12/1 11-10-6 (124)

Robinsfirth 10-12-1 (146)
15 Dec 2017 Gr 3 Hcap Chase (260 d) 26f sf Chelt 7/4 2l 1/5 off 142
tracked leader, mistake 4 out, led 2 out, 4 lengths clear flat, driven out
Not seen since putting in a career best to beat Shanroe Santos (-15) and take a Gr 3 HCh here in December 2017; runs off only 4lbs higher today and meets the runner-up on 6lbs better terms; can go well fresh and has his usual jockey in the saddle.
Plus: class (W)l going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto; down in class;
Minus: up 4lbs; 382-day break;
Verdict: (52) fitness is the major concern, of course, but has the form to make his mark in this field, so a contender.
Beware The Bear 9-12-1 (146)
01 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1420 u) 26f sf Newb 14/1 32l 4/12 off 148
towards rear, reminders and struggling after 10th, plugging on past beaten horses when mistake 2 out
May have been flattered by his finishing position in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury lto, as he did not appear to be anywhere near his best; the first-time cheek-pieces have now been replaced by first-time blinkers for his second start since a wind operation; moreover, runs off only 1lb higher than when taking the 2017 Rehearsal at Newcastle
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (31 days); down 2lbs; down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (42) not that impressive at Newbury and the blinkers need to spark improvement and thus not the strongest contender.
Rolling Dylan 8-11-11 (142)
14 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (340 u) 26f gd Chelt 16/1 0.5l 3/9 off 140
mid-division, headway 15th, mistake 4 out, driven after 2 out, challenged 2 out, every chance flat, 3rd and held close home
Won a couple of NCh in his first season over fences, but showed improvement on previous running when a close 3rd to Cogry here in mid-December, although not sure how reliable a yardstick the winner is; nevertheless, appears to be improving and has only been raised 2lbs for that effort.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (18 days); down in class;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (40) although a bit wary of last performance, have to consider him a contender.
Shanroe Santos 10-11-6 (137)
08 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 u) 29f sf Sand 3/1 F 14l 4/8 off 137
held up in rear, headway to chase leaders halfway, 2nd after 4 out, every chance next, weakened approaching last
Career best when taking the Southern National at Fontwell back in mid-November, but not quite at that level when tackling further in heavier ground at Sandown lto; nevertheless, always capable at around this trip, although all 4 wins have come in Cl 3.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent outing (24 days);
Minus: no win above Cl 3;
Verdict: (40) capable on his day, though can throw in an error or two, but lack of success at this level leaves him as a questionable contender.
Some Chaos 8-10-10 (127)
07 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (160 u) 25f gd Winc 9/4 F 6l 2/10 off 122
in touch, chased leaders, 13th, effort 2 out, no extra approaching last
Won a pair of Nov HCh at Bangor and Market Rasen in October/November on first 2 starts over fences, but failed to achieve the hat-trick at Wincanton last month,. although the leading two were well clear of the rest; nevertheless, it was another career best and further improvement likely despite a 5lbs rise in the weights.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (26); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (34) looks to be an improving sort, but this a stiffer test than he’s faced to date and another questionable contender.

This is a mixture of seasoned campaigners and those new to the chasing game, which always makes life tough. Of my shortlist, I have to question the ability of Shanroe Santos to be successful at this level so he’s the first to go. I also have to question the chances of Beware The Bear, as he looked far from rejuvenated by his wind op at Newbury and the jump from cheek-pieces to blinkers looks a little severe. So he’s the next to go, and that leaves me with just three possible contenders, each with their own questions.

There can be little doubt that Some Chaos has shown much promise to date, but whether he can regain the winning thread at this level is another matter. The question with Rolling Dylan, meanwhile, is that he may not be the most genuine when it comes to effort, and being placed to Cogry might not be as worthy as it seems. The big question with Robinsfirth, of course, is whether we can expect him to be tuned up enough coming back from over a year’s break. You pays your money and takes your chance I guess, but I’m going for Robinsfirth from Rolling Dylan and Some Chaos.

Cheltenham 14.00 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 422 (158) 20.5f gd/sf – 9 Run (8 at best)

Last year – 427 (154) hv – 8 ran
Ballyhill 9/1 7-10-2 (133) by 1.75l from Shantou Flyer 8/1 8-11-5 (152)

Ballyhill 8-10-12 (144)
08 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (120 d) 20f sf Aint 7/2 F 3.25l 1/10 off 134
prominent, lost place before 4th, headway 9th, led next, clear last, stayed on well
Runs off an 11lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal thanks to a comfortable success in a career best at Aintree early last month; has been raised 10lbs for that but no reason he shouldn’t go well, although did fail to handle the rise in the weights after last year’s win.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course; trainer (C); form run lto (24 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (44) fit and in form and thus a contender to repeat last year’s success.
Aso 9-11-12 (158)
30 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 d) 20f gd/sf Newb 8/1 13l 1/6 off 150
shade keen early, made all, hit 11th, 4 lengths ahead travelling strongly 2 out (normal 3 out ), unchallenged
Good form here at around this trip including when 3rd in the Ryanair last March; returned with another career best at Newbury at the end of November and looks likely to be thereabouts despite an 8lbs rise in the weights.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (32 days); career best lto);
Minus: up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) fit and in form, plus has form around here, so a contender.
Born Survivor 8-10-11 (143)
02 Nov List Hcap Chase (170 d) 19.5f gd Weth 7/2 3.25l 1/7 off 139
chased leader, led 6th until next, soon in front again, made rest, clear from 3 out, kept on strongly, driven out
Drying ground looks to be in his favour although has won on softer; looked to be in good form when giving a fine jumping display at Wetherby in early November on his first start since May; raised just 4lbs for that success and could have been waiting for the ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: course; up 4lbs; 60-day break; up in class;
Verdict: (43) another with winning form and drying ground in his favour, so a contender.
Happy Diva 8-10-8 (140)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 25/1 BD/18 off 140
mid-division, headway when badly hampered and brought down 4 out
Took well enough to chasing last season with 3 novice wins; was going well on her return in the BetVictor Gold Cup here in mid-November before being brought down 4 out, although the price would suggest her stable did not have high expectations; nevertheless she gets in here off a reasonable mark under her regular jockey.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent outing (45 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (38) was going well her on her return when BC, so a potential contender.
Divine Spear 8-10-9 (141)
14 Feb Cl 4 Nov Chase (50 d) 20f gd/sf Muss 1/3 F 7l 2/5 off 143
tracked leaders, went 2nd before 3 out, kept on same pace
Useful hurdler who won his first 2 chase starts when switched to fences in late 2017; unable to complete the hat-trick, however, when upped in trip at Musselburgh last February and not seen since; likely much more to come over fences this season and has shown an ability to go well fresh.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down 2lbs;
Minus: class (?); course (?); 321-day break; up 3 classes;
Verdict: (36) showing much promise, but only a potential contender making his season debut.

None of the past 9 winners have carried more than 11-8, with 8 falling in the 140 to 149 OR range, as well as having a run within the past 62 days. While there have been a couple of double digit winners the rest have all started at single figure odds.

With Acting Lass already a N/R, the only other one I can draw a line through is Twiston-Davies 10yo Foxtail Hill. That said, however, while Dustin Des Mottes looked useful in France and showed promise at Ascot lto, I can’t find enough in his UK form to include him on my shortlist. Much the same can also be said for Nicholls’ Give Me A Copper despite his lofty price in the betting and while either could prove me wrong and go and win here, I can’t in all honesty put them forward.

Similar comments could be made about Henderson’s Divine Spear, who is also making his season return, and possibly Happy Diva too, so I shall again look elsewhere. Of the remaining trio, Aso has to give weight the best part of a stone or more to the field, which could well count against him, while last year’s winner Ballyhill may struggle off a career high mark, but the ground may be coming right for Born Survivor. So while I may regret passing on the lesser-campaigned runners, I’m going for Born Survivor from Ballyhill and Aso.

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