Monday 14 January 2019
- TPR_14012019.jpg (162.5 KiB) Viewed 3553 times
I have added an Odds Line, inspired by raysofsun57 and the 'TrueWin' idea, I have taken the Conf. value and converted it in to an Odds Value, I have also included the 11 AM Exchange odds and the 11 AM odds rank (1 indicates the Market Favourite), this has allowed me to add a column called Value, the idea is if the Odds Line Value is less than the actual 11 AM Exchange price then would represent a 'Value' Bet as indicated with a "Y"
Given that this is purely a ranking based on pure form, it is producing an Odds Line Value based purely on form, for example looking at the 14:35 at Ffosl, the top ranked on form is Potters Story, with an 11 AM Exchange price of 7.20, and an Odds Line of 2.04, which indicates this is a value bet and worth a small wager, on the other hand Whatswrongwithyou represents poor value and the 11 AM Exchange price is only 1.58 and an Odds Line of 2.10, so only worth a bet if the price is Evens or above, 1.58 represents poor value given the rankings of the other horses
Not sure how this approach will work out if comparing the Odds Line to the actual exchange price is a sensible comparator, the challenge is to produce and Odds Line that realistically represents the chances of the horse winning
I have used a 70% reduction factor in creating the Odds Line, so it is not a direct 100% conversion from the Conf. Value, I did this to take into account that 'real' odds tend to be lower than a horses 'real' chance of winning
Also I have a lot of threads going, and too much to manage, so will focus on this Thread and take my pick from the races numbered up
My Selections are
14:35 FfosL Whatswrongwithyou (not good value unless getting Evens or better)
15:25 Font Native Robin
15:25 Font Mortens Leam