Price Up 2nd Jan

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
rayofsun57
Posts: 104
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:13 am

Price Up 2nd Jan

Postby rayofsun57 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:28 am

Slight adjustment to the way the jumps Ratings are calculated today, with increased weighting for speed figures, hopefully making for more accurate True odds. Flat ratings performed very well yesterday.

TrueWin - the price for this horse in a 100% book market - price based on the Ratings, relative to each other. Ratings based on sound handicapping/speed techniques.
Back+67% - the minimum price you should accept for this horse when Backing
Lay-40% - the maximum price you should accept for this horse when Laying


12.40 Wolverhampton (11 runners)
Betway Sprint Classified Stakes
5f (1121 yards)
Class 6, Standard, 3yo+, Win: £3105
Avg OR : 48, Median OR : 48
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . Back+67% , Lay-40%
6.81 (100.0) 5-Le Manege Enchante 11.35 , 4.09
7.34 (99.2) 4-Emjayem 12.23 , 4.40
7.96 (98.3) 9-Storm Trooper 13.27 , 4.78
9.35 (96.7) 3-Compton River 15.58 , 5.61
9.41 (96.7) 10-Kemmeridge Bay 15.68 , 5.64
11.90 (94.7) 8-Storm Lightning 19.83 , 7.14
12.19 (94.5) 1-Brother In Arms 20.32 , 7.32
12.42 (94.3) 7-Shesthedream 20.71 , 7.45
13.78 (93.6) 2-Captain Ryan 22.96 , 8.27
********
18.70 (91.5) 6-Roys Legacy 31.17 , 11.22
186.46 (80.9) 11-Velvet Vixen 310.77 , 111.88

1.00 Ayr (9 runners)
Book For The Ayrshire Wedding Show Handicap Hurdle
3m½f (5350 yards +48 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Soft, 4yo+, Win: £4484
Avg OR : 109, Median OR : 108
Left Handed, 12 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 9 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.57 (100.0) 4-Strong Resemblance 4.29 , 1.54
4.43 (94.8) 7-Pistol 7.38 , 2.66
6.55 (92.0) 5-Ask The Tycoon 10.92 , 3.93
7.22 (91.3) 3-Craiganboy 12.04 , 4.33
********
19.41 (86.1) 8-Marlee Massie 32.35 , 11.65
27.11 (84.6) 2-Letemgo 45.18 , 16.26
500.74 (58.4) 1-Gars Bar Dine 834.57 , 300.45
500.74 (66.7) 9-No No Mac 834.57 , 300.45
500.74 (61.6) 6-Shtan On 834.57 , 300.45

1.20 Hereford (11 runners)
MansionBet Handicap Chase
3m1½f (5544 yards +38 yards rails adjustment)
Class 5, Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3509
Avg OR : 83, Median OR : 78
Right Handed, 19 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . B+67% , L-40%
1.76 (100.0) 3-Knight Ofthe Realm 2.93 , 1.06
6.52 (89.7) 6-What Larks 10.86 , 3.91
9.88 (87.5) 7-Georgina Joy 16.47 , 5.93
********
16.29 (85.2) 1-Royals And Rebels 27.15 , 9.77
20.40 (84.2) 2-Abbeygrey 34.00 , 12.24
26.58 (83.1) 4-Eaton Miller 44.29 , 15.95
58.30 (80.3) 8-Shanann Star 97.16 , 34.98
337.79 (75.0) 5-Quinto 562.98 , 202.67
342.44 (73.9) 9-Some Finish 570.74 , 205.47
342.44 (74.6) 10-Ballydarsi 570.74 , 205.47
342.44 (68.5) 11-Black Jack Jaxon 570.74 , 205.47

1.45 Wolverhampton (13 runners)
Betway Casino Handicap
6f (1340 yards)
Class 6, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £3105
Avg OR : 54, Median OR : 57
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . B+67% , L-40%
5.25 (100.0) 1-Peachey Carnehan 8.75 , 3.15
5.43 (99.6) 7-Fantasy Justifier 9.05 , 3.26
5.71 (99.0) 6-Tonis A Star 9.52 , 3.43
6.17 (98.2) 9-Santafiora 10.28 , 3.70
7.39 (96.5) 3-Astrophysics 12.32 , 4.44
********
24.61 (88.4) 5-Indian Affair 41.02 , 14.77
28.66 (87.6) 8-Dream Ally 47.77 , 17.20
33.75 (86.8) 2-Carpet Time 56.26 , 20.25
42.53 (85.7) 12-Whigwham 70.88 , 25.52
62.32 (84.1) 11-Whispering Soul 103.86 , 37.39
120.33 (81.6) 4-Spirit Power 200.55 , 72.20
2n


2.10 Ayr (6 runners)
Happy Birthday Teresa Dewan Handicap Chase
2m½f (3630 yards +18 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Soft, 5yo+, Win: £4614
Avg OR : 101, Median OR : 103
Left Handed, 13 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 5 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.51 (100.0) 4-John Williams 4.18 , 1.51
3.30 (97.1) 6-Las Tunas 5.50 , 1.98
5.97 (92.4) 2-Mumgos Debut 9.94 , 3.58
7.88 (90.7) 3-Echo Express 13.14 , 4.73
********
240.59 (77.0) 5-Cool Valley 400.99 , 144.36
1n


2.20 Wolverhampton (7 runners)
Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap
1m1½f (2084 yards)
Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5531
Avg OR : 79, Median OR : 78
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.35 (100.0) 1-Michele Strogoff 7.25 , 2.61
4.57 (99.4) 7-Central City 7.62 , 2.74
4.65 (99.2) 3-High Acclaim 7.75 , 2.79
9.10 (93.3) 2-Military Law 15.17 , 5.46
9.21 (93.2) 5-Illustrissime 15.35 , 5.52
11.03 (92.0) 6-Argus 18.38 , 6.62
********
36.90 (85.5) 4-This Girl 61.50 , 22.14

2.40 Ayr (8 runners)
Frazer Coogans Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f (4711 yards +36 yards rails adjustment)
Class 3, Soft, 4yo+, Win: £9357
Avg OR : 127, Median OR : 125.5
Left Handed, 12 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 8 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.41 (100.0) 7-Road To Gold 7.35 , 2.65
5.26 (98.1) 2-Senor Lombardy 8.76 , 3.16
5.30 (98.0) 6-Aye Right 8.84 , 3.18
6.25 (96.4) 8-Arthurs Secret 10.41 , 3.75
11.35 (91.9) 1-One For Harry 18.92 , 6.81
14.51 (90.4) 5-Bryden Boy 24.19 , 8.71
********
18.83 (88.9) 4-Elusive Theatre 31.39 , 11.30
41.05 (85.1) 3-Fine Rightly 68.41 , 24.63

2.50 Wolverhampton (7 runners)
Ladbrokes Fillies Conditions Stakes
7f (1576 yards)
Class 2, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £12938
Avg OR : 97, Median OR : 97
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Outside
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.52 (100.0) 3-Island Of Life 7.54 , 2.71
5.13 (98.6) 1-Castle Hill Cassie 8.54 , 3.08
6.34 (96.5) 6-Pattie 10.56 , 3.80
6.46 (96.4) 4-Lucymai 10.77 , 3.88
6.59 (96.2) 7-Peak Princess 10.98 , 3.95
10.99 (92.3) 2-Crossing The Line 18.31 , 6.59
********
35.04 (86.0) 5-Miss Bar Beach 58.40 , 21.02

3.00 Hereford (10 runners)
MansionBet Handicap Hurdle
3m2f (5619 yards +138 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £4809
Avg OR : 115, Median OR : 116
Right Handed, 13 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 10 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.22 (100.0) 3-Roberts Star 7.04 , 2.53
4.26 (99.9) 4-Frankie Rapper 7.09 , 2.55
4.45 (99.4) 8-Cougar Kid 7.41 , 2.67
6.33 (95.9) 5-Present Times 10.55 , 3.80
11.98 (91.3) 7-Chase End Charlie 19.96 , 7.19
********
41.94 (84.9) 2-Western Wave 69.90 , 25.16
72.83 (82.6) 6-Rosemary Russet 121.39 , 43.70
74.21 (82.6) 1-Wishicould 123.68 , 44.52
103.44 (81.3) 9-Gardiners Hill 172.40 , 62.06
822.48 (70.5) 10-Late Shipment 1370.79 , 493.49

3.10 Ayr (8 runners)
Winter Weddings At Western House Hotel Handicap Chase
3m½f (5300 yards +36 yards rails adjustment)
Class 5, Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3314
Avg OR : 92, Median OR : 91.5
Left Handed, 19 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 8 Run . B+67% , L-40%
1.77 (100.0) 2-Glittering Love 2.96 , 1.06
2.57 (96.2) 1-Present Flight 4.28 , 1.54
********
35.29 (82.1) 6-Purple Harry 58.82 , 21.18
167.63 (77.0) 3-Imperial Prince 279.38 , 100.58
265.48 (75.7) 5-Flying Jack 442.46 , 159.29
345.19 (54.2) 7-Left Back 575.32 , 207.12
345.19 (61.1) 4-Mash Potato 575.32 , 207.12
345.19 (69.2) 8-Spinning Scooter 575.32 , 207.12

3.20 Wolverhampton (10 runners)
sunracing.co.uk Handicap
7f (1576 yards)
Class 5, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 69, Median OR : 70
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Outside
TrueWin (Rating) 10 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.83 (100.0) 9-Sir Ottoman 8.04 , 2.90
6.32 (97.2) 5-Fast Track 10.53 , 3.79
6.51 (96.9) 8-Inaam 10.85 , 3.91
7.90 (95.2) 4-Gabrial The Tiger 13.16 , 4.74
9.30 (93.9) 7-Dark Alliance 15.49 , 5.58
13.27 (91.5) 3-Creek Harbour 22.11 , 7.96
********
15.37 (90.6) 1-Secondo 25.61 , 9.22
18.01 (89.6) 10-Air Of York 30.01 , 10.81
23.12 (88.3) 2-Dubai Elegance 38.54 , 13.87
134.31 (80.9) 6-Tavener 223.85 , 80.59

4.10 Newcastle (6 runners)
sunracing.co.uk Handicap
1m (1765 yards)
Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5531
Avg OR : 82, Median OR : 82.5
Straight, Stall Positioning : Centre
TrueWin (Rating) 6 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.65 (100.0) 5-Space Bandit 7.75 , 2.79
4.68 (99.9) 6-Dubai Acclaim 7.80 , 2.81
4.76 (99.7) 3-Trevithick 7.93 , 2.86
6.50 (96.6) 2-Breaking Records 10.83 , 3.90
7.38 (95.4) 1-My Target 12.30 , 4.43
13.95 (90.9) 4-Come On Tier 23.26 , 8.37
********

5.15 Newcastle (7 runners)
Ladbrokes Bet 5 Get 20 Handicap
6f (1320 yards)
Class 5, Standard, 3yo, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 63, Median OR : 66
Straight, Stall Positioning : Centre
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
3.44 (100.0) 2-Coolagh Magic 5.73 , 2.06
5.22 (95.8) 1-Lads Order 8.70 , 3.13
5.34 (95.6) 7-Geography Teacher 8.90 , 3.20
6.55 3 Vrai 10.92 , 3.93
11.37 (90.3) 5-Popping Corks 18.95 , 6.82
12.70 (89.7) 4-Caustic Love 21.16 , 7.62
********
93.06 (81.0) 6-Gunnabedun 155.09 , 55.83

5.45 Newcastle (9 runners)
Follow Top Tipster Templegate At SunRacing Handicap
1m (1765 yards)
Class 5, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 65, Median OR : 67
Straight, Stall Positioning : Centre
TrueWin (Rating) 8 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.97 (100.0) 10-Lucky Violet 4.95 , 1.78
5.18 (94.7) 5-Bobby Joe Leg 8.63 , 3.11
5.62 (94.1) 7-Zodiakos 9.36 , 3.37
10.64 (89.9) 9-Man Of Verve 17.73 , 6.38
12.59 (88.9) 2-Decoration Of War 20.99 , 7.56
********
15.19 (88.0) 8-Paparazzi 25.32 , 9.11
19.98 (86.6) 1-Newmarket Warrior 33.30 , 11.99
311.24 (76.7) 4-Escape Clause 518.74 , 186.75
2n


6.15 Newcastle (7 runners)
Follow SunRacing On Twitter Handicap
7f (1554 yards)
Class 5, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 68, Median OR : 68
Straight, Stall Positioning : Centre
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
5.54 (100.0) 5-Smugglers Creek 9.23 , 3.32
5.73 (99.6) 2-Rey Loopy 9.55 , 3.44
6.24 (98.7) 3-Fingals Cave 10.40 , 3.74
6.37 (98.4) 6-Chosen World 10.61 , 3.82
8.16 (96.1) 1-Dirchill 13.60 , 4.90
8.94 (95.3) 4-Harvest Day 14.90 , 5.36
10.74 (93.9) 7-Admiral Rooke 17.89 , 6.44
********

6.45 Newcastle (10 runners)
Betway Handicap
6f (1320 yards)
Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5531
Avg OR : 79, Median OR : 79
Straight, Stall Positioning : Centre
TrueWin (Rating) 9 Run . B+67% , L-40%
5.22 (100.0) 7-Equiano Springs 8.69 , 3.13
5.72 (99.0) 5-Highly Sprung 9.53 , 3.43
6.35 (97.9) 4-Tommy G 10.58 , 3.81
8.21 (95.5) 1-Royal Prospect 13.69 , 4.93
8.87 (94.9) 9-Katheefa 14.79 , 5.32
9.43 (94.4) 10-Athollblair Boy 15.71 , 5.66
11.44 (93.0) 2-Nick Vedder 19.06 , 6.86
********
38.15 (86.2) 3-Global Tango 63.58 , 22.89
46.16 (85.4) 8-Valley of Fire 76.93 , 27.69
1n


7.15 Newcastle (10 runners)
Betway Sprint Handicap
5f (1100 yards)
Class 6, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £3105
Avg OR : 51, Median OR : 52
Straight, Stall Positioning : Centre
TrueWin (Rating) 10 Run . B+67% , L-40%
6.61 (100.0) 8-Novabridge 11.01 , 3.96
6.84 (99.6) 4-Queen Of Kalahari 11.41 , 4.11
7.11 (99.2) 9-Encoded 11.85 , 4.27
7.41 (98.7) 5-Windforpower 12.35 , 4.45
7.57 (98.5) 7-Fuel Injection 12.62 , 4.54
11.32 (94.8) 3-Funkadelic 18.86 , 6.79
12.01 (94.4) 6-Star Cracker 20.02 , 7.21
********
18.46 (91.4) 10-Camanche Grey 30.76 , 11.07
20.73 (90.7) 2-Poppy In The Wind 34.55 , 12.44
47.97 (86.2) 1-Bahango 79.95 , 28.78





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Last edited by rayofsun57 on Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:05 pm, edited 8 times in total.

millerman40
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:37 pm

Re: Price Up 2nd Jan

Postby millerman40 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:54 am

Hi,

I am new to Patternform and have just come across your pricing posts, is there a guide somewhere which explains all the numbers, if not would you be able to offer one?

Many Thanks


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