Price Up Sat 5th Jan

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
rayofsun57
Posts: 104
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:13 am

Price Up Sat 5th Jan

Postby rayofsun57 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:02 am

Jumps racing - adjustment made to give 50% weighting to overnight forecast odds, when calculating TrueWin - this should give a more usable balanced market to trade with. My Rating (which is processed to give the other 50%) is still quoted in brackets.

Flat racing - as before, TrueWin based purely on Ratings, no further adjustments.

Prices are all Decimal, including stake, as per betfair exchange.

Back advice - up to 15.0 TrueWin, back all horses who are better than the B+67% marker
Lay advice - lay all horses who are less than the L-40% marker. Set a maximum price (I use 5.5).

Level Stakes - 1 Point win on all qualifiers above.
Variable Stakes - 100/TrueWin gives variable stake amount per £100 total investment.

(my experience is that Level stakes is slightly more profitable than Variable stakes)



11.55 Newcastle (7 runners)
Parklands Golf Club Handicap Hurdle
2m½f (3618 yards)
Class 4, Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £4094
Avg OR : 107, Median OR : 107
Left Handed, 9 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 6 Run . Back+67% , Lay-40%
2.43 (100.0) 2-Suggestion 4.05 , 1.46
4.18 (96.2) 7-Pc Dixon 6.97 , 2.51
6.42 (73.4) 1-Royal Reserve 10.70 , 3.85
14.10 (81.2) 4-Wishfull Dreaming 23.50 , 8.46
16.28 (73.9) 6-Beyondtemptation 27.13 , 9.77
16.44 (83.3) 5-Tunnel Creek 27.40 , 9.86
1n

12.30 Wincanton (15 runners)
Best Odds Guaranteed With BetVictor Handicap Hurdle
1m7½f (3365 yards)
Class 4, Good, 4yo+, Win: £4874
Avg OR : 100, Median OR : 104
Right Handed, 8 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 15 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.61 (100.0) 6-Midnight Midge 7.68 , 2.76
5.89 (97.4) 4-Working Class 9.82 , 3.54
9.36 (90.1) 9-Catchin Time 15.61 , 5.62
9.64 (92.9) 1-Unsafe Conduct 16.06 , 5.78
11.87 (89.2) 12-Truckers Tangle 19.79 , 7.12
14.31 (87.5) 3-Desiremoi Dauthie 23.84 , 8.58
17.70 (87.8) 13-Powerful Society 29.50 , 10.62
19.37 (83.9) 8-Stormingin 32.29 , 11.62
30.76 (65.5) 14-Fire Ahead 51.26 , 18.45
33.55 (83.7) 10-Texan Nomad 55.92 , 20.13
34.09 (80.1) 5-Present Destiny 56.82 , 20.46
56.43 (76.4) 7-Darwins Theory 94.05 , 33.86
67.70 (65.8) 2-Away For Slates 112.83 , 40.62
80.77 (74.9) 11-Sadma 134.62 , 48.46
255.14 (59.2) 15-Mr Magill 425.24 , 153.09

12.40 Lingfield (9 runners)
Betway Casino Handicap
1m2f (2200 yards)
Class 5, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 70, Median OR : 70
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.65 (100.0) 5-Bayston Hill 7.75 , 2.79
4.66 (100.0) 2-King Of The Sand 7.77 , 2.80
5.09 (99.0) 6-Seaborough 8.49 , 3.06
5.27 (98.6) 1-Graceful James 8.78 , 3.16
8.05 (94.7) 7-Forbidden Planet 13.42 , 4.83
31.26 (86.6) 8-Sunbreak 52.10 , 18.76
35.65 (86.0) 9-Jupiter 59.42 , 21.39
2n



12.45 Sandown (4 runners)
Unibet Handicap Chase
1m7½f (3419 yards)
Class 2, Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £18768
Avg OR : 131, Median OR : 133
Right Handed, 13 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 4 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.14 (100.0) 1-Capeland 3.57 , 1.28
3.73 (96.3) 2-Yorkist 6.21 , 2.24
7.29 (82.6) 3-Poker School 12.14 , 4.37
7.88 (90.2) 4-Darebin 13.13 , 4.73

1.15 Lingfield (7 runners)
Betway Handicap
1m2f (2200 yards)
Class 3, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £7246
Avg OR : 93, Median OR : 93
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 6 Run . B+67% , L-40%
3.22 (100.0) 5-Matterhorn 5.37 , 1.93
4.18 (97.2) 3-Shargiah 6.97 , 2.51
5.07 (95.5) 4-Lexington Law 8.46 , 3.04
8.55 (91.7) 6-Battle Of Marathon 14.25 , 5.13
13.16 (89.2) 2-Mythical Madness 21.93 , 7.89
16.48 (88.0) 7-Guvenors Choice 27.46 , 9.89
1n

1.20 Sandown (8 runners)
32Red Handicap Chase
2m4f (4410 yards)
Class 3, Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £9384
Avg OR : 125, Median OR : 125
Right Handed, 17 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 8 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.61 (93.5) 4-Darius Des Bois 7.68 , 2.76
4.93 (100.0) 5-Lithic 8.21 , 2.96
6.20 (98.8) 6-Prairie Town 10.33 , 3.72
6.23 (99.1) 7-Dream Bolt 10.39 , 3.74
9.13 (76.9) 3-Larry 15.21 , 5.48
16.06 (87.5) 1-Western Miller 26.76 , 9.63
17.39 (84.7) 2-Creep Desbois 28.98 , 10.43
34.62 (79.5) 8-Vocaliser 57.71 , 20.77

1.30 Newcastle (7 runners)
Sky Sports Racing Virgin 435 Handicap Chase
2m4f (4419 yards)
Class 5, Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3314
Avg OR : 88, Median OR : 93
Left Handed, 16 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
1.75 (100.0) 6-Younoso 2.91 , 1.05
7.74 (77.9) 2-Outnumbered 12.90 , 4.65
11.09 (81.7) 7-Duhallowcountry 18.48 , 6.65
14.07 (79.2) 5-Titian Boy 23.45 , 8.44
17.13 (81.2) 3-Charlie Snow Angel 28.55 , 10.28
23.14 (72.5) 4-Monsieur Bagot 38.57 , 13.89
28.56 (72.9) 1-Mr Kit Cat 47.59 , 17.13

1.45 Lingfield (8 runners)
Betway Live Casino Handicap
1m4f (2640 yards)
Class 4, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £5531
Avg OR : 73, Median OR : 73.5
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 8 Run . B+67% , L-40%
3.32 (100.0) 6-Nylon Speed 5.53 , 1.99
4.57 (96.7) 1-Dutch Uncle 7.62 , 2.74
6.18 (94.2) 8-Bamako Du Chatelet 10.30 , 3.71
6.46 (93.9) 2-Tralee Hills 10.76 , 3.87
9.91 (91.0) 5-Smiley Bagel 16.52 , 5.95
22.85 (86.5) 3-Stormy Blues 38.08 , 13.71
59.03 (82.5) 7-Esspeegee 98.39 , 35.42
645.96 (31.9) 4-Shinghari 1076.61 , 387.58



1.50 Sandown (4 runners)
Unibet Mares Hurdle (Listed)
2m4f (4353 yards)
Listed Race, Soft, 4yo+, Win: £12529
Avg OR : 138, Median OR : 134.5
Right Handed, 9 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 2 Run . B+67% , L-40%
1.16 (100.0) 1-Laurina 1.93 ,
7.40 (87.2) 3-Sensulano 12.33 , 4.44
2n





2.00 Newcastle (12 runners)
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle
2m6f (4840 yards)
Class 5, Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £3119
Avg OR : 88, Median OR : 93.5
Left Handed, 13 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . B+67% , L-40%
3.28 (98.5) 7-Petite Ganache 5.46 , 1.97
3.83 (100.0) 1-Silk Or Scarlet 6.39 , 2.30
8.09 (89.8) 9-Herecomesnelson 13.48 , 4.85
12.74 (64.9) 5-Pinspot 21.24 , 7.65
20.35 (83.4) 3-Dark And Dangerous 33.92 , 12.21
21.35 (46.1) 2-Call The Cops 35.59 , 12.81
25.12 (74.6) 10-Perseid 41.87 , 15.07
28.77 (75.2) 6-Schlipf 47.96 , 17.26
28.86 (70.2) 4-Mah Mate Bob 48.10 , 17.32
62.80 (49.2) 8-Cudgel 104.67 , 37.68
90.94 (62.5) 12-Millrose Bell 151.57 , 54.57
1n




2.15 Lingfield (5 runners)
Follow Sun Racing On Twitter Conditions Stakes
1m (1761 yards)
Class 2, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £11828
Avg OR : 99, Median OR : 97
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Outside
TrueWin (Rating) 5 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.01 (100.0) 4-Straight Right 3.35 , 1.21
4.35 (93.1) 3-Salateen 7.25 , 2.61
8.72 (88.8) 5-Take The Helm 14.53 , 5.23
11.23 (87.5) 1-Book of Dreams 18.72 , 6.74
14.55 (86.3) 2-Calling Out 24.24 , 8.73



2.35 Newcastle (8 runners)
Watch Sky Sports Racing HD On Virgin435 Handicap Chase
2m7½f (5151 yards)
Class 3, Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £16505
Avg OR : 118, Median OR : 119.5
Left Handed, 19 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 6 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.40 (98.6) 1-Thedrinkymeister 4.00 , 1.44
2.60 (100.0) 5-Ascot De Bruyere 4.33 , 1.56
10.45 (63.4) 3-Donnas Delight 17.42 , 6.27
28.88 (68.9) 6-Catchamat 48.13 , 17.33
28.88 (71.4) 7-Fly Rory Fly 48.13 , 17.33
29.87 (80.7) 8-Ever So Much 49.78 , 17.92
2n




2.40 Wincanton (14 runners)
Lengthen The Odds With BetVictor Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f (4702 yards)
Class 3, Good, 4yo+, Win: £10397
Avg OR : 120, Median OR : 120
Right Handed, 11 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 14 Run . B+67% , L-40%
8.19 (97.3) 10-Dark Episode 13.64 , 4.91
8.71 (98.7) 12-Tight Call 14.52 , 5.23
9.74 (97.5) 9-Earlofthecotswolds 16.23 , 5.84
10.44 (95.3) 5-Wicked Willy 17.40 , 6.26
10.89 (98.3) 2-Magoo 18.16 , 6.54
11.61 (100.0) 7-Bradford Bridge 19.34 , 6.96
13.95 (91.2) 13-Gulshanigans 23.26 , 8.37
14.67 (96.5) 6-Timoteo 24.45 , 8.80
15.34 (95.6) 1-Bhutan 25.57 , 9.20
16.24 (85.8) 3-Tedham 27.07 , 9.75
17.32 (88.3) 8-Wallace Spirit 28.87 , 10.39
28.29 (86.6) 4-Kk Lexion 47.14 , 16.97
45.55 (82.2) 11-Marten 75.92 , 27.33
197.32 (60.5) 14-Gallic Destiny 328.87 , 118.39

3.00 Sandown (17 runners)
Unibet Veterans Handicap Chase
3m (5317 yards)
Class 2, Good To Soft, 10yo+, Win: £61900
Avg OR : 134, Median OR : 135
Right Handed, 22 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 17 Run . B+67% , L-40%
7.27 (100.0) 11-Henllan Harri 12.11 , 4.36
7.93 (99.2) 2-Loose Chips 13.22 , 4.76
8.11 (98.9) 14-Cultram Abbey 13.52 , 4.87
10.25 (96.9) 6-Kings Lad 17.09 , 6.15
12.21 (89.7) 8-Rock Gone 20.35 , 7.33
18.20 (87.2) 16-Rathlin Rose 30.34 , 10.92
19.44 (89.9) 12-Pete The Feat 32.39 , 11.66
21.96 (87.1) 4-Bishops Road 36.60 , 13.18
23.04 (85.0) 7-On Tour 38.39 , 13.82
23.28 (84.8) 15-Band Of Blood 38.80 , 13.97
25.70 (88.6) 17-Halo Moon 42.83 , 15.42
29.72 (84.9) 1-Exitas 49.54 , 17.83
33.71 (74.5) 10-Le Reve 56.18 , 20.22
36.58 (77.5) 13-Tenor Nivernais 60.97 , 21.95
37.60 (71.1) 3-Buywise 62.66 , 22.56
51.09 (71.9) 9-Houblon Des Obeaux 85.15 , 30.65
51.09 (69.7) 5-Theatre Guide 85.15 , 30.65

3.15 Wincanton (7 runners)
BetVictor Guaranteed Run For Your Money Handicap Chase
2m4f (4435 yards)
Class 2, Good, 5yo+, Win: £12512
Avg OR : 140, Median OR : 138
Right Handed, 17 Fences
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.18 (100.0) 1-Sizing Platinum 6.97 , 2.51
4.93 (98.4) 2-Theinval 8.22 , 2.96
5.22 (94.2) 5-Copain De Classe 8.69 , 3.13
7.14 (82.0) 4-Calipto 11.91 , 4.29
9.33 (89.5) 3-Catamaran Du Seuil 15.55 , 5.60
15.75 (80.5) 6-Value At Risk 26.24 , 9.45
17.90 (86.1) 7-Opening Batsman 29.83 , 10.74

3.25 Lingfield (11 runners)
sunracing.co.uk Handicap
7f (1541 yards)
Class 5, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 72, Median OR : 72
Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.66 (100.0) 7-Evening Attire 7.77 , 2.80
4.81 (99.6) 2-Critical Thinking 8.02 , 2.89
8.68 (94.2) 3-Grey Galleon 14.47 , 5.21
9.09 (93.8) 1-Kodiline 15.15 , 5.45
10.10 (93.1) 8-Highland Acclaim 16.84 , 6.06
12.30 (91.7) 5-Espresso Freddo 20.50 , 7.38
13.86 (91.0) 4-Bernies Boy 23.10 , 8.32
28.41 (87.1) 11-De Little Engine 47.35 , 17.04
31.15 (86.6) 6-Militry Decoration 51.92 , 18.69
39.19 (85.6) 9-Real Estate 65.32 , 23.52
140.52 (80.6) 12-Helen Sherbet 234.20 , 84.31
1n

3.35 Sandown (7 runners)
32Red.com Handicap Hurdle
2m (3516 yards)
Class 2, Soft, 4yo+, Win: £15640
Avg OR : 127, Median OR : 127
Right Handed, 8 Hurdles
TrueWin (Rating) 7 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.39 (100.0) 3-Our Merlin 7.32 , 2.63
5.37 (97.6) 5-Court Royale 8.96 , 3.22
6.21 (96.3) 6-Monsieur Lecoq 10.34 , 3.72
6.68 (96.2) 2-Eragon De Chanay 11.14 , 4.01
7.36 (90.3) 7-Thistimenextyear 12.26 , 4.41
11.51 (78.0) 1-Demopolis 19.18 , 6.91
19.04 (62.0) 4-Saintemilion 31.74 , 11.43



4.45 Kempton (14 runners)
Introducing Racing TV Handicap
1m (1760 yards)
Class 6, Slow, 3yo, Win: £3105
Avg OR : 55, Median OR : 54.5
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 13 Run . B+67% , L-40%
2.21 (100.0) 5-Grandee Daisy 3.69 , 1.33
7.67 (90.1) 4-Drummer Jack 12.79 , 4.60
10.40 (88.4) 9-Singe Du Nord 17.33 , 6.24
12.82 (87.3) 6-Rajman 21.36 , 7.69
16.65 (86.1) 2-Lee Roy 27.74 , 9.99
24.47 (84.4) 3-Elysian Lady 40.78 , 14.68
28.77 (83.7) 10-The Grey Dancer 47.95 , 17.26
31.13 (83.4) 1-Pot Luck 51.88 , 18.68
36.54 (82.8) 7-Royal Dancer 60.90 , 21.93
42.89 (82.2) 12-Miss Green Dream 71.48 , 25.73
79.89 (80.0) 8-Brains 133.16 , 47.94
95.58 (79.4) 14-Iriss Spirit 159.29 , 57.35
431.02 (67.6) 11-Heatherdown 718.37 , 258.61
1n




5.15 Kempton (13 runners)
Join Racing TV Now Handicap
1m (1760 yards)
Class 6, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £3105
Avg OR : 52, Median OR : 52
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 13 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.12 (100.0) 11-Luxford 6.86 , 2.47
5.00 (97.9) 10-Demons And Wizards 8.33 , 3.00
5.70 (96.6) 7-Sir Jamie 9.50 , 3.42
7.54 (94.3) 14-Woggle 12.57 , 4.53
10.94 (91.7) 4-Molten Lava 18.23 , 6.56
16.29 (89.3) 5-Voice of A Leader 27.15 , 9.78
30.99 (86.1) 6-Blue Harmony 51.66 , 18.60
38.76 (85.1) 2-Gracie Stansfield 64.60 , 23.26
59.69 (83.3) 12-Runaiocht 99.48 , 35.81
136.20 (80.3) 1-With Approval 226.99 , 81.72
137.05 (80.3) 13-Haabis 228.42 , 82.23
258.04 (78.2) 3-Ramblow 430.07 , 154.82
339.96 (77.4) 8-Achianna 566.60 , 203.97
1n

5.45 Kempton (9 runners)
32Red/EBF Stallions Breeding Fillies Handicap
1m (1760 yards)
Class 3, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £12450
Avg OR : 77, Median OR : 77
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 9 Run . B+67% , L-40%
7.07 (100.0) 8-Happy Escape 11.78 , 4.24
7.28 (99.7) 1-Ventura Blues 12.14 , 4.37
7.51 (99.3) 5-Yusra 12.52 , 4.51
8.20 (98.4) 3-Roman Spinner 13.67 , 4.92
9.41 (97.0) 2-Pure Shores 15.69 , 5.65
9.89 (96.5) 4-Jamaican Jill 16.49 , 5.93
10.10 (96.4) 6-Red Chois 16.84 , 6.06
11.34 (95.4) 7-Margies Choice 18.90 , 6.80
13.94 (93.8) 9-Autumn Leaves 23.24 , 8.37






6.15 Kempton (11 runners)
32Red Handicap
2m (3518 yards)
Class 2, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £15562
Avg OR : 93, Median OR : 91
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . B+67% , L-40%
6.92 5-Amade 11.54 , 4.15
6.92 (100.0) 4-Addicted To You 11.54 , 4.15
8.59 (97.7) 1-Lord George 14.32 , 5.15
9.21 (97.0) 11-Zubayr 15.35 , 5.52
9.50 (96.7) 7-Cayirli 15.83 , 5.70
9.56 (96.7) 10-Envoy 15.94 , 5.74
14.47 (93.3) 2-Cosmelli 24.12 , 8.68
15.32 (92.9) 6-Winterlude 25.53 , 9.19
17.19 (92.1) 3-Count Calabash 28.64 , 10.31
17.77 (91.9) 8-Castlelyons 29.62 , 10.66
36.56 (87.8) 9-Eddystone Rock 60.93 , 21.94



6.45 Kempton (5 runners)
32Red On The App Store Handicap
6f (1320 yards)
Class 4, Slow, 3yo, Win: £6469
Avg OR : 77, Median OR : 76
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 5 Run . B+67% , L-40%
1.31 (100.0) 1-Wedding Date 2.18 ,
8.99 (86.5) 3-Beleaguerment 14.98 , 5.39
18.38 (83.4) 2-Uncle Jerry 30.64 , 11.03
27.65 (81.9) 4-Xtara 46.09 , 16.59
30.34 (81.5) 5-Showu 50.57 , 18.20



7.15 Kempton (11 runners)
100% Profit Boost At 32RedSport.com Handicap
2m (3518 yards)
Class 5, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £3752
Avg OR : 67, Median OR : 67
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 11 Run . B+67% , L-40%
4.69 (100.0) 5-Spiritual Man 7.81 , 2.81
5.07 (99.1) 2-Ilhabela Fact 8.46 , 3.04
6.40 (96.8) 1-Red Royalist 10.67 , 3.84
9.32 (93.7) 11-Bird For Life 15.53 , 5.59
10.24 (93.0) 7-Confederate 17.06 , 6.14
14.45 (90.8) 8-Buckle Street 24.08 , 8.67
16.93 (89.8) 9-Blazon 28.22 , 10.16
24.31 (87.9) 10-Nafaayes 40.52 , 14.59
33.86 (86.3) 6-Ardamir 56.43 , 20.32
37.59 (85.8) 4-East Indies 62.64 , 22.55
340.81 (77.8) 3-Moon of Baroda 568.02 , 204.49




7.45 Kempton (14 runners)
Follow racingtv On Twitter Handicap
1m4f (2639 yards)
Class 6, Slow, 4yo+, Win: £3105
Avg OR : 61, Median OR : 61
Right Handed, Stall Positioning : Inside
TrueWin (Rating) 14 Run . B+67% , L-40%
6.75 (100.0) 12-Matravers 11.24 , 4.05
7.07 (99.5) 2-Highway One 11.79 , 4.24
7.29 (99.1) 7-Turn Of Luck 12.16 , 4.38
9.36 (96.6) 8-Furiously Fast 15.61 , 5.62
10.24 (95.8) 1-Butterfield 17.07 , 6.14
11.66 (94.8) 13-Happy Ending 19.44 , 7.00
18.57 (91.5) 14-Double Legend 30.94 , 11.14
20.00 (91.0) 9-Power Home 33.34 , 12.00
21.59 (90.5) 3-Famous Dynasty 35.98 , 12.95
23.13 (90.1) 11-Boycie 38.54 , 13.88
27.06 (89.2) 6-Foresee 45.11 , 16.24
37.08 (87.6) 4-Tour de Paris 61.80 , 22.25
59.30 (85.4) 5-Make Good 98.84 , 35.58
111.79 (82.8) 10-Sir Prize 186.31 , 67.07




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