Saturday 5th January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 5th January

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:44 am

Strange Saturday racing of late with the quality more befitting midweek than the pride of the weekend. This is hardly a race that I would normally have picked out, but not much option today I’m afraid. Let’s hope it’s better next week!

Sandown 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 619 (144) 24f gd/sf – 17 Run

Last year – 619 (156) hv – 14 ran
Buywise 12/1 11-10-8 (138) by 2l from Pete The Feat 12/1 14-10-0 (130)
Loose Chips 16/1 12-10-5 (140) was 9.55l 5th
Houblon Des Obeaux 5/1 F 11-10-13 (143) was 11.55l 6th
Theatrical Star 10/1 12-10-0 (130) was 21.55l 7th

Henllan Harri 11-11-2 (134)
01 Jul List Hcap Chase (420 u) 26f gd Uttox 6/1 3.75l 2/18 off 130
tracked leaders, challenged 11th, led before next, jumped left 3 out, headed 2 out, no impression on winner flat
Certainly capable on his day having won the Bet365 Gold Cup here in April 2017 and returned to the winner’s enclosure at Perth this past June, not disgraced off a 2lbs higher mark when runner-up in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter at the start of July; not seen since, so fitness a question, plus runs here off a 4lbs higher mark. a career high; probably favours gd ground although has won on gd/sf and hv.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto; down in class;
Minus: up 4lbs; 188-day break; career high mark;
Verdict: (54) break a question mark, as is the career high mark, but has to be considered a contender.
Loose Chips 11-11-6 (138)
08 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (130 d) 23.5f hv Sand 11/2 10l 3/9 off 133
led, headed approaching 2 out, soon rallied, kept on well
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (190 u) 24f sf Sand 7/1 11l 1/11 off 130
made all, slow 3rd, cajoled along bend before 12th, not fluent 15th, clear last, stayed on gamely
Runs off a 2lbs lower mark than when 5th to Buywise (+3) in last year’s renewal; however, has the better subsequent form of the pair winning as recently as November when making all over C&D here to comfortably prove too strong for Rock Gone (+10); followed that up with a creditable hurdles effort here; no doubt he likes the course., but runs off an 8lbs higher mark than in November and will meet RG on 7lbs worse terms today, although he has won off this mark within the past 2 years.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 5lbs; 55-day break;
Verdict: (42) May have problems conforming November running with Rock Gone and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Rathlin Rose 11-10-12 (130)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (190 u) 24f sf Sand 8/1 14l 4/11 off 132
mid-division, headway on outside 14th, disputing 2nd 2 out, no impression on winner, no extra and lost 3rd towards finish
Latest win was in a veterans’ HCh at Ascot in March 2017, but only 2 starts last season were in the Topham Trophy at Aintree and the Bet365 Gold Cup here in April; decent effort on his return here being right there until lack of a race told and he finished 4th to Loose Chips (-7) and Rock Gone (level); has been dropped a couple of lbs in the weights and enjoys a 12lbs and 5lbs pull in the weights, respectively; would need a career best to win here though as he’s never won off higher than 128 (twice).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus: 55 day break;
Verdict: (41) likely to improve on his return run on a course where he generally runs well; however, not sure he’s ready to set a new high career winning mark and thus only a tentative contender for the win.
Cultrum Abbey 12-10-13 (131)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (190 u) 22.5f gd/sf Kelso 13/2 3l 1/8 off 126
mid-division, tracked leaders 10th, ridden to chase leader before last (usual 2 out), stayed on to lead bypassing omitted last, ran on (final fence omitted on both circuits, low sun)
A year ago it looked as if his chasing career was over, but a switch to hunter chases appears to have invigorated his desire once more and he looked an impressive winner at Kelso in early December; has been raised 5lbs for that, but had form off much higher marks in the past;
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (27 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs;
Verdict: (40) rare southern excursion for his trainer, but not without a chance now that his enthusiasm for the game has been rekindled, a contender.

The obviously dangerous one appears to be Rock Gone who put in a fine effort coming back from a year off when runner-up to Loose Chips. The worry is, of course, that he put in an even better effort the previous November when runner-up in a Gr 3 Hcap Chase and then wasn’t seen till this November. Given that he only has a lowly Novice win to his name from his 6 chase starts, he does look a mite on the short side at the front of the betting. He may win, but not for me. I also feel that Le Reve looks overly short given that his last form run was when winning over C&D here in February 2016; a last of 3 on his return was not enough to persuade me to overlook that.

Looking at my shortlist, any one of the quartet could win. I just wonder though if the rise in the weights has given Loose Chips too much to do. I also have a query about Rathlin Rose as another infrequent visitor to the race course. The problem with Henllan Harri, of course, is the break since his last run, but that was improved form he was showing in the summer and he is taken to build on that and win from lto winner the rejuvenated Cultrum Abbey with perhaps Rathlin Rose getting the better of the renewed battle with Loose Chips and Rock Gone for the minor placings.

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