Saturday 19th January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 19th January

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:47 am

Still searching for this year’s first winner, but then some months go like that! Taken a three-pronged approach today, although my main concentration was on the Peter Marsh at Haydock. Finger definitely crossed!

Ascot 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 285 (147) 19.5f gd/sf – 10 Run

Last year – 285 (147) sf – 13 ran
Jenkins 5/1 6-11-3 (143) by 2.25l from Air Horse One 14/1 7-11-12 (147)
Man Of Plenty 16/1 9-9-9 (123) was 6.5l 4th

Ballymoy 6-11-12 (147)
22 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle (130 d) 19f hv 5/6 F 4.5l 1/5 off 142
led, headed after 4 out, not fluent 3 out, led 2 out, not fluent last, clear flat, stayed on
Appeared to appreciate the step up in trip when making it 5 from 6 with yet another career best when easily beating Better Getalong (-7) at Haydock before Christmas; raised 5lbs for that, but one suspects that will not be enough for BG to reverse the running; only disappointment same in listed class at Newbury on previous start where he clouted a couple of hurdles.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs; up in class; trainer (C = 1/44)
Verdict: (45) rapidly improving, but needs to improve fluency over hurdles to be a contender at this level.
Seddon 6-11-2 (137)
21 Dec Gr 2 Nov Hdl (200 u) 15.5f sf Ascot 11/4 8l 3/9 off 132
tracked leaders on inside, pushed along before straight, kept on final 2f, went 3rd and one pace final 2f
Won initial bumper and then finished midfield in the Champion bumper at Cheltenham; won NHd at Stratford to start this season and has since not been disgraced in setting career best efforts in a pair of Gr 2 NHd; hcap debut today and may well be suited by the step up in trip.
Plus: class (F); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: going (?); distance (?); up 5lbs; hcap debut;
Verdict: (43) not a lot to go on, but a possible contender.
Colonial Dreams 7-10-8 (129)
26 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (130 u) 21f gd/sf Kemp 9/1 18l 6/14 off 131
held up in rear, headway 3 out, effort before next, weakened approaching last
Looks consistent sort and has won over C&D here; likely in need of his return at Kempton on Boxing Day and should be a lot fitter now; this level very much new territory though and will need to improve.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus: class (?); going; up in class;
Verdict: (36) improvement on Kempton likely, but not proven at this level as yet and not the strongest contender.
Thosedaysaregone 6-10-6 (127)
12 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (70 d) 19.5f gd Weth 11/10 F 4.5l 1/7 off 118
held up towards rear, headway 4 out, challenged on inside 2 out, led narrowly between last 2, ridden clear when wandered flat, kept on
Landed the gamble on his HHd debut at Wetherby last weekend when far outdistancing anything he’d shown before; runs off a 9lbs higher mark here and likely more to come; however, this new level of competition over hurdles.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d) form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 9lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (35) impressive last weekend, but this a different calibre of competition; nevertheless, a contender.

Not an awful lot to go on and probably a race to steer clear of. However, notwithstanding Twiston-Davies poor record here, I’d go with Ballymoy from Seddon and perhaps Thosedaysaregone.

Ascot 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 469 (152) 21f gd/sf – 14 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 469 (143) sf – 6 ran
Acting Lass 7/4 F 7-10-12 (143) by 2.25l from Kilcrea Vale 5/1 8-10-6 (137)

Mister Whitaker 7-11-12 (152)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 20f gd Chelt 6/1 F 11l 4/18 off 152
towards rear, headway under pressure on outside before 3 out, soon outpaced, stayed on to take 4th near finish, never nearer
Improving chaser who is 4/7 over fences; beat Happy Diva (-11) and Cyrname (-2) at Carlisle on his return and then not disgraced when 4th in the BetVictor at Cheltenham in mid-November; has been given a break since.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down in class;
Minus: course (?); 63-day break;
Verdict: (50) very useful chaser but suspect this to get him back in shape for sterner tasks, so not the strongest contender perhaps.
Mr Medic 8-11-3 (143)
15 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (740 u) 20.5f gd Chelt 12/1 23l 6/12 off 143
chased leaders, mistake 4 out, ridden after 3 out, 4th and no extra before 2 out
Good strike rate over fences and recorded a career best when beating Flying Angel (+8) over C&D here on his return in November; raised 9lbs for that but was only undone by a mistake in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham in December.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (35 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (46) useful chaser and a contender under today’s conditions.
Happy Diva 8-11-2 (142)
01 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (420 d) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt 8/1 2l 2/7 off 140
held up in rear, closed 8th, not fluent 12th, disputing 2nd 3 out, held by winner from last, kept on
Very useful mare who recorded a career best when runner-up at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day; has been raised 2lbs for that, but likely she’ll be on the premises again.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (18 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (44) game mare who is not without a chance and a contender.
Benatar 7-11-9 (149)
22 Dec List Hcap Chase (570 u) 24f sf Ascot 8/1 8.5l 3/12 off 149
held up towards rear, steady headway on inside 9th, chased leaders 14th, went 2nd 4 out, ridden and well held before next, lost 2nd close home
Useful novice last season with a C&D win under his belt; however, has been slow to fins the mark this time round, although better effort in the Silver Cup here before Christmas and will likely appreciate the drop back in trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (40) a contender if regaining last season’s form
Belami Des Pictons 8-11-6 (146)
05 Nov 2017 List Chase (170 u) 20f gd/sf Carl 11/8 2.5l 2/4 off 148
pressed leader, led 10th, driven after 3 out, ridden and headed before last, no impression with winner flat
Looked a promising prospect over fences in the 16/17 season winning half his start at up to 24f; not seen, however, since finishing runner-up to Waiting Patiently at Carlisle in November 20017.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs; down in class;
Minus: course (?); 440-day break;
Verdict: (40) break the question, of course, but no surprise were he to run well with teh form the stable’s in.

For once I like neither of the Nicholls pair, preferring instead both Doitforthevillage and Divine Spear. However, restricting my attention to those on the shortlist I can understand why Benatar and Belami Des Pictons are so popular. However, not for me as I prefer the chances of Mr Medic from Mister Whitaker (who I can’t leave out) and Happy Diva in third.

Haydock 15.15 Gr 2 Hcap Chase 427 (160) 26.5f gd/sf – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – 427 (153) hv – 13 ran
The Dutchman 11/2 8-10-6 (135) by 13l from Captain Redbeard 6/1 7-10-11 (140)

Red Infantry 9-10-6 (142)
08 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 u) 29f sf Sand 7/2 1l 2/8 off 137
held up in rear, not fluent 12th, headway 6 out, chased leaders 4 out, every chance approaching 2 out, kept on gamely under pressure
Second season staying chaser who seems headed in the right direction, winning over 28.5f here in November and then set another career best when runner-up in the London National on his last outing; raised a further 5lbs for that, but no reason he shouldn’t continue to improve as this only his ninth chase, although he is stepping up to Cl 1 for the first time, plus not always a fluent jumper.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (46) improving chaser in good form, and while a contender will need to up his jumping to win today.
Wakanda 10-10-10 (146)
26 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (260 u) 24f gd/sf Weth 11/2 11l 4/8 off 147
tracked leader until not fluent 4 out, mistake next, well beaten 2 out, lost 3rd close home
Consistent enough chaser at around 24f, winning the Sky Bet at Doncaster last January off only 1lb lower; however, has never won over further and was PU in the 2017 National Trial here after being runner-up in the Roland Meyrick at Wetherby on the Boxing Day; finished 4th at Wetherby this past Boxing Day, but while he has been dropped 1lb, have to question his ability to see out this trip, especially should the conditions worsen.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W?); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (24 days); down 1lb;
Minus: yet to win beyond 24f;
Verdict: (45) consistent enough chaser, but likely to find one or two stronger at the end of this trip and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Robinsfirth 10-10-10 (146)
15 Dec 2017 Gr 3 Hcap Chase (260 d) 26f sf Chelt 7/4 2l 1/5 off 142
tracked leader, mistake 4 out, led 2 out, 4 lengths clear flat, driven out
Very lightly raced for a 10yo making just his seventh start over fences today; not seen since putting in a career best to beat Shanroe Santos over 26f at Cheltenham in December 2017, having previously finished runner-up to Chase The Spud (-3) over C&D here; jockey booking suggests he’s fit and trainer another one that is good at producing horses after a long break, plus he won last year’s renewal.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs; 400-days break;
Verdict: (45) the break’s a major question, but certainly a contender if fit to do himself justice.
Otago Trail 11-11-3 (153)
Runs off a 2lbs higher mark than when runner-up to Bristol De Mai in the 2017 renewal before beating Loose Chips at Sandown the following month ; missed the whole of last season, but showed he still retained ability at 11yo by finishing 3/12 in the Rehearsal (a race he won in 2016 off 146) at Newcastle in his first race for 665 days; disappointed at Ascot before Christmas though and has to bounce back from that; nevertheless, the stable in a grand form at present and has a decent record here too, plus his rider takes a very useful 7lbs off his back.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down 1lb;
Minus: going;
Verdict: (43) stable does well in resurrecting the careers of horses after long absences and this could be another; a contender on previous form.
Daklondike 7-10-9 (145)
22 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 d) 23f hv Hayd 6/1 1l 1/11 off 139
towards rear, not fluent 2nd, headway when not much room 10th, led 3 out, headed before last, over 2 lengths down flat, stayed on well to lead again close home
Good start to his chasing career last season when winning 3 of his first 5 starts, but found the long break against him when PU in the BoyleSports at Punchestown in April; similarly needed the race when PU on his return at Cheltenham in November; showed the benefit of a first-time visor over 23f here before Christmas though when producing a career best to beat Ballyarthur (-7) by a comfortable 1l; raised 6lbs for that but better off with his opponent today as B runs from 3lbs out of the handicap; younger than traditional winners, but an improving sort if the visor keeps his mind concentrated.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; going (?); up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) improving sort and a contender if visor works again.

Of others, I can’t fancy last year’s runner-up Captain Redbeard off a 4lbs higher mark, plus while Ballydine could improve for the first-time fitting of a tongue tie and cheekpieces, he is running from 5lbs out of the handicap.

Looking at past trends, the past 12 winners all had 2 to 5 starts since August, with the last of them being in December or January for 11 winners. When it comes to past experience, 9 had at least 8 chases starts, although not more than 10 in HCh. It pays to be classy too, for 10 had previously run in Gr class and 9 had a Cl 1 start in the current season. A proven stayer is required too, for only 4 of the past 12 had not previously won over at least 25f.

Applying that wisdom to my shortlist raises a few questions, but I think it’s time to part faith with Wakanda who has always been a ‘nearly’ horse for me – just watch it win now! I do have a few questions about Red Infantry for although a proven stayer, he’s not always the cleanest of jumpers, plus takes on a different class of opposition today. However, he does top my ratings so I daren’t leave him out. Of the remaining trio, Daklondike is a little younger than the majority of winners, and Otago Trail has to bounce back from a disappointing Ascot run and looks plenty short enough. Robinsfirth, meanwhile, is coming back from over a year off and that normally that would be enough for me to draw a line through his chances, but he’s lightly raced and doesn’t appear to need much preparation. So at the prices I’m going for Robinsfirth from Red Infantry with Daklondike holding off Otago Trail.

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