Saturday 2nd February

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 2nd February

Postby Devasteve » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:31 am

Well managed to get one race about right last week; sadly, it wasn’t the one I had targeted! This week looks even worse, as I’ve found one race where I can’t even find a selection, while the other is a hurdle race that looks fraught with problems too. So fingers crossed that one of them manages to make the frame!

Sandown 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 563 (152) 23.5f sf – 18 Run

Last year – 563 (147) sf – 17 ran
Topofthegame 11/2 F 6-11-7 (142) by 1.5l from Golan Fortune 9/1 6-10-9 (137)
Folsome Blue 14/1 11-10-11 (132) was 5l 4th
Man Of Plenty 16/1 9-9-9 (123) was 9.5l 7th
Flemcara 16/1 6-10-11 (139) was 12.5l 9th

Ballymoy 6-11-12 (152)
19 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Hdl (280 u) 19.5 gd/sf Ascot 4/1 1.75l 1/10 off 147
tracked leaders on inside, led 4 out, stayed on gamely from last, ridden out
Highly progressive hurdler who has won 6 of his 8 starts (including here), the latest a Gr 3 at Ascot a fortnight ago in yet another career best; raised 5lbs for that, but a bigger worry is the step up to this new trip, although he was staying on stoutly at the finish at Ascot.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance (?); up 5lbs; up in distance;
Verdict: (56) suspect more to come and a contender if staying the trip.
Mr Antolini 9-11-0 (140)
22 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Hdl (850 u) 15.5f sf Ascot 12/1 7.5l 5/21 off 141
chased leaders, pushed along before 4 out, kept on from 2 out, no threat
Improving hurdler who has showed much progress since coming over from Ireland at the start of last year; won over 16f Gr 3 in similar conditions here last March, but while he’s run well since has found it difficult to get his head in front again; career best when last seen at Ascot in December, but looked to need further; whether that means an extra furlong we shall see today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto; down 1lb;
Minus: distance (?); up in distance;
Verdict: (51) claims on best form, but new trip means a contender with questions.
Keeper Hill 8-11-4 (144)
12 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (160 u) 25f gd Warw 5/1 3l 1/10 off 139
chased leaders, went 2nd before 2 out, led when not fluent last, clear flat, stayed on well
Useful hurdler and made a bright start to chasing career last season before jumping let him down when facing tougher opposition later in the season; switch back to the smaller obstacles seems to have suited, although not fluent at the last when winning in a career best at Warwick three weeks back; raised 5lbs for that, but is proven at the distance and ground should not prove a problem.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (46) fit and in form, plus proven at the trip – a contender.
Lord Napier 6-10-8 (134)
12 Jan List Hcap Hdl (260 d) 21f gd 7/1 33.5l 3/14 off 130
mid-division, pushed along before 3 out, headway chasing leaders before next, chance 2 out, 3rd and one pace in 3rd after 2 out
Three times a winner at up to 20f in his first season over hurdles and looks to have continued his progress based on his 3rd in the Lanzarote last month; it also hinted that today’s trip could well suit.
Plus: class (F); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: (40) looks as if step up in trip might suit and a contender.
Casko D’Airy 7-10-11 (127)
22 Dec Cl 4 Nov Hdl (70 u) 23.5f sf Ascot 16/1 7l 1/13 off 113
held up in rear, smooth headway after 3 out to track leaders before next, went 2nd before led last, came easily clear run-in
Came over from France in October 2016, but didn’t make his UK debut until Chepstow in November; opened his account in fine style in an Ascot novice in December and obviously has enormous scope for improvement on only his fifth hurdle start despite starting his hcap career off a 14lbs higher mark.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 14lbs; up 3+ classes; hcap debut;
Verdict: (38) a lot of points to prove, but a contender with questions.

Very trappy race indeed and I could also make a case for the likes of mud-loving Eminent Poet, Virginia Chick, and Paddleyourowncanoe among others, although the latter is only a 5yo. Past trends basically tell us to look for 6-9yo hurdlers who have had 2 to 4 current season starts, won 2 to 4 of their 3 to 9 hurdle starts, of which no more than 3 were hcaps. A win in at least Cl 3 over 20f or more, and with 9 or more opponents are also pluses.

Trying to make sense of all that along with those on my shortlist is a bit tough, Of Twiston-Davies trio, I prefer the chances of Ballymoy to those of Mr Antolini or The Hollow Ginge, while of the Nicholls duo I’d prefer to take a chance on Casko D’Airy than the long-absent Brio Conti. So adding the distance proven Keeper Hill and Lord Napier who has hinted it may suit, I’m down to a quartet. Hopefully the winner is among them, and in taking Keeper Hill from Ballmoy I hope I’ve got it right, though if it goes really soft Eminent Poet could grab the spoils.

Sandown 15.25 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 310 (146) 24f sf – 17 Run (16 at best)

Last year – 313 (146) sf – 12 ran
Ballydine 4/1 F 8-10-11 (131) by 0.75l from Holly Bush Henry 6/1 7-10-10 (133)
Loose Chips 25/1 12-11-0 (139) was 2.25l 3rd
Shanroe Santos 9/1 9-10-7 (127) PU after 18th when tailed off

Houblon Des Obeaux 12-11-10 (144)
05 Jan Cl2 Hcap Chase (620 u) 24f gd/sf Sand 7/1 15l 1/17 off 135
mid-division, headway chasing leaders 10th, 2nd before 12th, led16th, clear 3 out, left further clear last
Best run a while when taking full advantage of a falling mark to take a veterans’ HCh over C&D in fine style a month ago; raised 9lbs for that, which will make life far more difficult against this opposition despite his rider’s 7lbs claim.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days)
Minus: up 9lbs; taking on younger horses again;
Verdict: (47) tough ask off new mark and not the strongest contender perhaps
Shanroe Santos 10-11-3 (137)
01 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Chase (150 d) 26.5f gd/sf Chelt 10/1 5l 2/9 off 137
chased leaders, not fluent 5th, went 2nd 3 out, closed on winner from last, stayed on, unable to get on terms
Runs off a 10lbs higher mark than when PU in last year’s renewal, although he didn’t jump well that day; however, has won twice since then, the most recent when taking the Southern National at Fontwell in November; was never getting to the winner at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but always plods on at the finish.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (32 days);
Minus: 10lbs higher than last year;
Verdict: (43) appears to be the plodder type and not perhaps the strongest contender here.
Le Reve 11-10-12 (132)
05 Jan Cl2 Hcap Chase (620 u) 24f gd/sf Sand 10/1 39l 8/17 off 135
held up towards rear, tailed off when blundered 3 out
Winner here in 2015 and 2016 off 139 and 144, respectively, he sadly hasn’t shown any form of note since.; was way behind Houblon Des Obeaux here lto and can see no reason he should be closer today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: no form since 2016!
Verdict: (40) hard to see him as a contender, though stranger things have happened!
Give Me A Copper 9-11-11 (145)
13 Nov 2017 Cl 4 Nov Chase (80 u) 24f gd Kemp 1/3 F 3.25l 1/2 off 146
jumped well, led 1st, made rest, shaken up and came readily clear run-in
Little to go on really, but won his second attempt over fences at Kempton in November 2017; the handicapper has dropped him 1lb for his hcap debut over a year later.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto; down 1lb;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); 446-day break; up 2 classes; hcap debut;
Verdict: (39) can’t honestly call him a contender, though again stranger things have happened!
Belami Des Pictons 8-11-12 (146)
05 Nov 2017 Listed Chase (170 u) 20f gd/sf Chelt 11/8 2.5l 2/4 off 148
pressed leader, led 10th, driven after 3 out, ridden and headed before last, no impression with winner flat
Won 3 of 4 chase starts in 2016/17 season, but not seen since finishing runner-up on his return in November of the following season; handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for his year off, plus trainer does well with returning them from a long break; however!
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto; down 2lbs;
Minus: course (?); 454-day break;
Verdict: (38) looked a promising sort and may go on to prove that, but the break means he’s a contender with serious questions.

What a problem this is, as good recent form is rather scarce on the ground. It even has me considering the likes of Classic Ben who has yet to win a chase! Sorry, but even after all those hours spent, I can’t find anything that I could honestly say will even make the frame. If you can, you’re better than me Gunga Din!

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 2nd February

Postby martinkil » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:42 pm

It even has me considering the likes of Classic Ben who has yet to win a chase!


A massive steamer - today apparently was the day!!


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