1.50 Leop - form over potential

[martinkil]

1:50 Leop – Aramon – Triplicate – 9-2 and 12-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

This is even more fascinating than yesterday's grade 1 novice hurdle and also includes the winning formline. Firstly lets start with the favourites Klassical Dream and Vision D'honneur who finished 1st and 4th on their debut with two others from that race also entered today Entoucas -2nd and Dancing On My Own 3rd. R Walsh has chosen to ride Klassical Dream rather than Aramon who he rode to a grade 1 success over christmas. That has to be a worry and he could well have made a mistake. That was a hot race with Vision D'honneur coming out and readily winning it's maiden, but it's not grade 1 winning form which is what we have with Aramon, by 10 lengths. Aramon and Triplicate have met three times with Triplicate finishing in front of Aramon twice and only failing when injuring it's heel last time in the grade 1.
Prior to that last race they finished 2nd and 3rd to Quick Grabim in the grade 1 Royal Bond where yesterday's grade 1 winner Commander Of Fleet finished 4th.

For me these two are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the field on what they've done and they're 4-1 and 12-1 respectively – madness, and a reverse F/C is called for and we can thank Ruby for that price

[Catspajamas]

An interesting race Martin, here are my calculations for this race

1350_LEOP_03022019.jpg (92.07 KiB) Viewed 1827 times

I have to side with Klassical Dream @ 4.00

I can see that Aramon has the numbers too, so should prove for a competitive race

[Picky35]

Hi Cats , wr u getting them stats from ?

[Catspajamas]

Hi Picky35, mostly from Patternform, challenge is getting the most optimum formulae in generating the Power Rating, I've been developing and refining them for some time now, so not there by any means, deciding which data to include and which to exclude is proving the most challenging, takes a little time to get the data in the spreadsheet so I am also selective on the races I choose to work on, lots of trial-and-error, I find lots of data is interesting but does not necessarily make for a profit if included, and can actually do quite the opposite in most cases

I'm using pretty 'ordinary' data, what I hope makes it a little 'extraordinary' is how the data is combined, the spreadsheet then does the heavy lifting and the handicapping process for a race, I spend a lot of time on the formulae and compiling the Power Rating, so I am continually going back over results and amending the formulae, as I say some types of races this just does not work for, so I am starting to be more selective on the race types I can then spend more time on the calculations for a smaller set of race conditions, it simply takes a lot of time, no quick ways of doing this, I am still 'experimenting' so cannot say how things will continue to work out, hopefully making a little profit on the way

As for data I use mostly the form data from Patternform