Saturday 23rd February

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 23rd February

Postby Devasteve » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:03 pm

Sorry, but have been off sick yet again!

Newcastle 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 500 (148) 32.5f gd/sf – 16 Run

Last year – 500 (149) sf – 17 Ran
Baywing 8/1 9-11-0 (140) by 4l of West Of The Edge 11/1 10-10-5 (128)

Vicente 10-11-10 (146)
19 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 d) 28.5f gd/sf Taunt 6/1 9.75l 3/7 off 147
chased leaders, slow 12th, effort 3 out, soon one pace
Appears to have struck lucky with the ground for once and having been dropped 1lb for a decent effort in similar conditions at Taunton lto now runs off the same mark as when taking the Scottish National for the second time back in April 2017; can’t be ignored under such conditions and worthy of consideration.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); down 1lb;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (46) a strong contender if ground doesn’t soften.
Ange Des Malberaux 9-10-5 (127)
21 Jan Cl 4 Hcap Chase (50 d) 25.5f gd/sf Warw 7/1 5l 1/12 off 117
held up in rear, headway before 14th, 2nd 2 out, led before last, clear towards finish, easily
Proven a useful contender this term winning 4 of 5 chase starts, the latest a new career best at Warwick last month; raised 10lbs for that and faces stronger opposition, but likely to stay trip and a contender.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (33 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (41) looks a strong candidate is staying the trip.
Kimberlite Candy 7-11-3 (139)
02 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 s) 24f sf Sand 20/1 2.25l 3/16 off 137
chased leaders, pushed along before 3 out, kept on run-in
All 3 chase wins have come on demanding ground, and this while he has yet to try this trip he could likely stay having put in a career best when 3/16 at Sandown earlier in the month; runs off a 2lbs higher mark here, but could yet have more to offer as he ages.
Plus: class (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: going (?); trip (?); course; up 2lbs;
Verdict: (39) looks to be an improver young chaser and a possible contender.
Daklondike 7 -11-12 (148)
Never quite certain which version is going to turn up, as quite looked the part when responding to first-time visor at Haydock just before Christmas, but then failed to finish in the Peter Marsh there last month; a trio of wins and a trio of DNF from last 6 starts raises questions, especially as he carries 3lbs more today.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (36) not without chances on his best form, but whether or not he produces is a question.

Better ground expected for the Eider this year, but some things still ride strong and that means 9yo or older with reasonable recent form run and fancied in the market. That being the case, I may have these in the wrong order, but I’m dropping the 7yos Daklondike and Kimberlite Candy and instead going for Ange Des Malberaux from Vincente.

Kempton 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 570 (154) 24f gd/sf – 10 Run

Last year – 570 (152) gd – 15 Ran
Master Dee 8/1 9-11-5 (145) by 3.75l from Ballykan 14/1 8-10-7 (133)

Adrien Du Pont 7-11-9 (151)
27 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 u) 24f gd/sf Kemp 9/2 3.5l 1/8 off 144
waited with in rear, steady on inside headway tracking leaders14th, challenged on bit 3 out, 2nd next, led approaching last, kept on strongly run-in
Impressive winner over C&D at the Christmas meeting here; raised 7lbs for that and up in class, but certainly not without chances here.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (58 days);
Minus: up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (51) a contender if continuing his improvement since Christmas.
Talkischeap 7-11-3 (145)
28 Jan Cl 4 Nov Chase (50 s) 24f gd/sf Kemp 5/4 F 3.25l 2/7 off 145
chased leaders on inside, lost place before 11th, rallied into 3rd14th, went 2nd going well enough before 3 out, every chance from2 out until mistake last, no extra run-in
Useful hurdler and looks likely to make his mark now going handicapping over fences having recorded a career best when runner-up over C&D here last month.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3 classes;
Verdict: (43) scope for improvement now in handicap zone.
Glen Rocco 8-10-9 (137)
12 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Chase (120 d) 24f gd Kemp 11/4 F 23l 1/7 off 124
held up in last trio, headway into 3rd place 10th, left close 2nd 4out, led approaching 2 out, soon clear, stayed on strongly
Fences seem to be his forte and while the handicapper has raised him 13lbs for his facile won over C&D here last month, there could be a whole lot more to come.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 13lbs;
Verdict: (43) looks to be another promising chaser and can’t be ignored.

Others that could be considered are Modus, although with distance worries, as well as Didero Vallis if staying the trip.

This could be a lot tougher than it looks though and I’m going to go with the proven Adrien Du Pont from Glen Rocco and Talkischeap.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 23rd February

Postby martinkil » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:56 am

I hope you feel better soon


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