Saturday 2nd March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 2nd March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:16 am

Thanks Martin, but dengue fever takes longer to really get over each time you get it - only my second time in 40 years, but still. Just the one race this week as I’m getting tired of expending so much energy for so little return – I’m also increasingly at a loss to understand how many of the winners actually manage to do so! Maybe I can get lucky this week for a change – it wouldn’t be before time!

Newbury 14.40 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 285 (154) 20f gd/sf – 16 Run

Happy Diva 8-11-0 (142)
25 Jan List Chase (43 d) 20f gd/sf Hunt 9/2 1l 1/7 off 142
chased leaders, challenged 4 out, led before 2 out, 4 lengths clear flat, reduced lead towards finish, kept on
Has continued to show improved form this term under today’s rider at around this trip, adding to her winning tally at Huntingdon in late January in similar conditions; runs off the same mark today and should continue to show her form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: (50) continue in good form and a contender in conditions that should suit.
Dolos 6-11-12 (154)
02 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (190 d) 15.5f sf Sand 4/1 Co F 4l 1/10 off 149
chased leaders, 2nd 4 out, led 3 out, came clear next, stayed on strongly
Was suited by the strong pace when winning in a career best over 15.5f at Sandown last month and likely to again get a strong pace to follow back up in trip; has been raised 5lbs for the success, but that offset by his rider’s claim and could go well again.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) not without chance if matching last time’s determination and a contender.
Mercian Prince 8-11-7 (149)
12 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Chase (80 d) 20.5f gd Kemp 9/4 Jt F 17l 1/4 off 139
jumped well, made all, in command from 4 out, kept on strongly, unchallenged
Took advantage of a lesser field when winning at Kempton in January on his second run back after wind surgery; has a 10lbs higher mark to contend with today though, plus has never won above Cl 2.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (49 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; course (?); up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (41) has never fared well at this level and a tough task up in the weights, so not the strongest contender.
Value At Risk 10-10-6 (134)
17 Jan Cl 3 Hcap (80 u) 19f gd/sf Mar Ras 7/1 0.5l 1/7 off 132
in rear, headway 8th, led 3 out, ridden and joined next, asserted towards finish
Made the most of falling mark and drop in class to get back on the winning trail with a career best under today’s rider at Market Rasen in mid-January; has only been raised 2lbs, but this is much stiffer opposition, although has won in Cl 1 before.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (44 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (40) good enough winner lto, but this is a whole lot tougher and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Javert 10-11-7 (149)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 20f gd Chelt 25/1 17l 6/18 off 150
tracked leaders, driven after 3 out, one pace and no impression before next, weakened flat
Lightly-raced for a 10yo having won 4 of his 8 chase starts, including at Uttoxeter on his return in September; followed up by finishing runner-up to Frodon in the Old Roan at Aintree, but hasn’t been seen finishing last of the 6 finishers in an eventful BetVictor at Cheltenham in mid-November; can go well fresh and no surprise were he to go well again today.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d) down in class; down in weight;
Minus: going; course; 105-day break;
Verdict: (34) one of the more interesting older runners and a possible contender.

Lost last year’s renewal to the weather if I remember rightly, but some interesting notes in that 8 of the last 9 winners have been 6yo to 8yo, plus Nicholls has saddled 6 of those 9 winners, all of which had run within 70 days.

Looking at the field I can’t see the reason for the enthusiasm for War Sound, as while he won a Cl 2 at Aintree on his return in November, he has since twice disappointed at this level at Cheltenham and doesn’t warrant the price in my book. Sorting my shortlist I feel that Mercian Prince and Value At Risk have the weakest claims and will pass on them. Of the remaining trio I have Dolos down as the best of the Nicholls trio and can’t be discounted, while I can see why Happy Diva is such a short price. Javert is somewhat speculative, but not entirely discounted. So, I’m going for Happy Diva from Dolos with Javert a possibility to make the frame.

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