Saturday 9th March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 9th March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:46 am

Well the streak continues, so I thought I’d look at two races today, including one of those strange ones where there are no obstacles to jump – flat races I think they call them! Sadly, I shall be missing Cheltenham completely this year as time no longer permits even the quickest of scans. So good luck to all, while I try to dredge up memories of the odd success in years past!

Wolverhampton 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (105) 8.5f AW – 13 Run

Last year – 311 (101) – 11 ran
Big Country 8/1 5-9-9 (100) Dr 10 by 0.75l from Pactolus 7/1 7-9-3 (99) Dr 2
Third Time Lucky 12/1 6-9-4 (95) Dr 4 was 1.5l 3rd

Victory Bond 6-9-10 (105) Dr 6
21 Nov List Stks (260 u) 8f Kemp 4/1 2.5l 4/11 off 106
held up mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on towards finish
Won Easter Classic at Lingfield last March and has won here too; not seen since finishing 4th in the Hyde Stks at Kempton in November, but goes well enough fresh and weight eased by stable apprentice looking to emulate his father’s career.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down in class; down 1lb;
Minus: 108-days break;
Verdict: (52) class horse and not likely to see him in handicaps too often, a contender.
Pactolus 8-9-9 (104) Dr 7
23 Feb Gr 3 Stks (570 u) 10f Ling 40/1 6.75 3/7 off 104
slowly into stride, held up in rear, headway over 1f out, stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never a threat
Runs off 5lbs higher than when runner-up in last year’s renewal, but likely in better form as following wins here and at Lingfield over the winter he was by no means disgraced in finishing 3rd in the Winter Derby at Lingfield last month; however, he will in fact be giving weight to VB.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); down in class;
Minus: 5lbs higher than when runner-up last year,
Verdict: (48) in good form, but may find it tough to actually give weight to VB even though a contender.
Pinnata 5-9-0 (95) Dr 5
20 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (16o u)7f Nwcs 3/1 1.5l 3/9 off 95
tracked leader, led over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, 3rd and no extra close home
Has been in good form over the winter with successes at Chelmsford, Kempton and Newcastle at 7f to 1f; latest effort a respectable 3/9 over 7f at Newcastle last month; runs off the same mark today although is up in trip and making his first visit to Wolverhampton since a 12f mdn here in 2017.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (17 days);
Minus: course; up in trip;
Verdict: (40) in good form and a possible contender.
Third Time Lucky 7-9-3 (98) Dr 1
Runs off a 3lbs higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal, but has won over C&D – his only AW success – and comes from a decent effort at Leicester when last seen in October; however, likely to need the race one thinks.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 2lbs; trainer (14d);
Verdict: (38) trainer always capable of pulling one out of the hat, but an unlikely contender today methinks.

A race that rarely turns up any major contenders for the Flat’s first’s big handicap, but it at least gives a chance to remember what will soon be upon us. As 9 of the last 10 winners have all been 4yo to 6yo, both Pactolus and Third Time Lucky have the odds stacked against them. However, on form to date I fail to see why Silver Quartz should be leading the market when it’s yet to win on the AW. So from my shortlist I’m going for Victory Bond from Pinnata and Pactolus.

Sandown 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 422 (160) 16f sf – 16 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 422 (152) sf – 17 ran
Mr Antolini 20/1 8-10-1 (130) by 0.25l from Call Me Lord 8/1 5-11-12 (152)
Chti Balko 25/1 6-11-0 (140) was 21.2l 9th

Call Me Lord 6-11-12 (160)
22 Dec Gr 1 Hdl (570 u) 24.5f sf 7/2 F 19l 7/11 off 160
held up towards rear, badly hampered 8th, hampered again bend on long run and switched left after 3 out closing on inside when hampered again 2 out, no chance after
A little unfortunate to be squeezed for room late on in last year’s renewal off an 8lbs lower mark, but made amends over 21.5f here in late April when an easy winner of Gr 2 from Lil Rockerfeller; made favourite for the Long Walk on his return in December, but consistently hampered throughout the race and never had a chance; not seen since, and drops back in distance today, while is giving at least a stone to the rest of the field in conditions that like last year threaten to be demanding.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: 77-day break; substantial drop in trip;
Verdict: (51) obvious class horse of the race, but weight and conditions and just the single start this term make life difficult and maybe not the strongest contender.
Monsieur Lecoq 5-10-0 (134) – 2lbs ooh
05 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Chase (160 u) 16f sf Sand 11/4 F 9l 1/7 off 122
tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, easily
The penny seems to have dropped and he’s won the last 2 starts, a novice at Ffos Las and on his HHd debut over C&D here when cantering clear of Our Merllin; handicapper was impressed as he’s raised him 12lbs, which was enough to get him into this field, albeit from 2lbs out of the hcap; over the weight issue is to some degree covered by his 7lbs claiming of his jockey.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (63 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; up 12lbs; up in class; 2lbs ooh;
Verdict: (49) rapidly improving hurdler and despite the rise in weight and class, can’t be ruled out as a contender.
Malaya 5-10-2 (136)
16 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (280 u) 19.5f gd/sf Ascot 20/1 5.25l 4/10 off 137
raced keenly, held up towards rear, headway going well approaching 2 out, switched right chasing leaders between last 2,left 4th and one pace run-in
Twice a winner for Nicholls last season, but fell in both her initial 2 starts this term; however, bounced back with a career best at Ascot last month when 4th to Brio Conti; has been eased a further 1lb and not without chances if building on her latest effort,
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto; down 1lb;
Minus: course (?); up in class; down in trip;
Verdict: (48) improved effort lto and not without a chance if building on that.
Benny’s Bridge 6-10-0 (134) – 8lbs ooh
26 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (170 u) 17f gd/sf Chelt 8/1 2.75l 1/12 off 120
raced keenly, held up well in rear, some headway 2 out but still plenty to do, closing in 4th going well last, switched left flat, soon led, readily asserted
Just the 4 starts over hurdles, readily asserting on his HHd debut at Cheltenham in late January to come clear of Flash The Steel; runs off a stone higher mark today as he’s running from 8lbs out of the handicap, but definitely has scope for further improvement.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 14lbs; 8lbs ooh
Verdict: (40) fine effort at Cheltenham lto, but this much tougher from 8lbs ooh and not the strongest of contenders perhaps.
Solomon Grey 7-10-3 (137) – N/R
12 Jan List Hcap Hdl (260 u) 21f gd Kemp 12/1 1.5l 2/14 off 131
chased leaders on outside, 2nd and every chance 2 out, ridden and one pace from last
Twice a winner in first season over hurdles, both under today’s rider, but rather out of sorts on his return at Doncaster in mid-December; fitted with a first-time tongue-tie on his next outing in the Lanzarote at Kempton in January and recorded a career best in finishing runner-up to Big Time Dancer; has been raised 6lbs for that, but possibly has more to show this term.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (56 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs; up in class; trainer (C 1/50);
Verdict: (37) possibly has further improvement to show, but trainer’s record over hurdles here make him a contender with questions.

Although last year’s winner was an 8yo, he was lightly weighted and had recorded a career best RPR on his last start. Normally I’d be looking for 4yo to 7yo carrying 11-0 or less, who recorded a career best in one of their last two starts, neither being below 124. Besides the ones in my shortlist, a case could also be made for Dream Du Grand Val and Extra Mag (N/R), although the former is Henderson’s other runner and EM the Pipe entry – always dangerous to ignore in this – both appear a mite speculative to me on what they’ve shown to date.

Of those making the list, last year’s runner-up Call Me Lord has top weight to carry in this ground and while I expect him to make the frame I have to pass from a win angle. I’m also passing on both Benny’s Bridge and Solomon Grey (N/R). The pair I’m going for are Monsieur Lecoq from Malaya with Call Me Lord perhaps edging Benny’s Bridge out of the frame.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 9th March

Postby martinkil » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:15 pm

I see were back to the "guess the finishing order" for the hurdle race - combi tricast time again.
As for the overgrown greyhound racing .......... :)


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