Saturday 23rd March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 23rd March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:49 am

Never looked close last week either Martin! Plus I'm rather disappointed with today’s cards. So, as novice handicap hurdles just don’t appeal, I’ve left Newbury well alone and travelled north to Kelso in search of runners and, I hope, a winner!

Kelso 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (146) 26f gd/sf – 8 Run

Last year – 313 (152) hv – 10 ran
Smooth Stepper 16/1 9-10-12 (138) by 8l from Baywing 11/2 9-11-6 (149)

Blue Flight 6-11-12 (146)
02 Mar Listed Chase (340 u) 23.5f gd/sf Kelso 7/1 0.5l 1/4 off 132
tracked leader, not fluent 7th or 9th, led before mistake last, driven and pressed flat, holding rival towards finish
Impressive since switched to chasing winning 3 of 4 starts, the latest a listed chase over 23.5f here at the start of the month; handicapper was dutifully impressed and has raised him 14lbs, but there could well be more to come; however, this a little bit further so will have to prove his stamina.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: up 14lbs;
Verdict: (55) improving young chaser who must be considered a contender despite the rise in the weights.
Claude And Goldie 10-10-7 (127)
02 Mar Cl 3 Nov Hcap Chase (80 d) 23.5f gd/sf Kelso 6/1 12l 1/4 off 117
made all, not fluent 10th or 3 out, clear before last, stayed on well
Lightly raced for his age, but winning Irish pointer who has showed marked improvement to get off the mark over 23.5f here at the start of the month, making all in a NHcCh; has been raised 10lbs for that and faces much tougher opposition today, but at least he’s going the right way.
Plus: going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto:
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 10lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) improving sort, but this much stiffer test and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Rons Dream 9-11-5 (139)
Is proving to be a better chaser than hurdler, although all her successes have come in mares only races; however, was by no means disgraced when 4/20 in the Welsh National at Chepstow at the end of December; has since fallen in a listed mares chase at Wincanton last month; needs to bounce back from that, but not without a chance on her Chepstow running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (course); recent outing (35 days);
Minus: needs to beat the boys; still 9lbs above winning HCh mark;
Verdict: (41) chance on her best form, but generally managed to find one or two better in ‘mixed’ events and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Le Reve 11-10-12 (132)
08 Mar Cl 3 Chase (80 d) 24f sf Sand 7/2 13l 1/13 off 130
raced widest, chased leaders, 3rd at 8th, 2nd next, led 12th, in command and staying on strongly when left in clear lead before 2 out
Has had a resurgence of form of late recording his first success in three years when taking a Cl 3 HCh over 29f at Lingfield last month under today’s rider, and then taking the Grand Military Gold Cup at Sandown in no uncertain style a fortnight ago; runs off a 2lbs higher mark today, though has won off much higher in the past.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (35) enjoying ‘purple patch’ of late, but this a tougher test of current well-being.
Some Chaos 8-11-4 (138)
16 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Chase (90 d) 25f gd Winc 7/2 12l 1/9 off 127
always prominent, led 14th, drew clear bypassing omitted 3 out, in no danger after, eased flat, comfortably (first fence in home straight omitted on all circuits)
Has shown a massive upturn in form since being put to fences on joining this yard in the autumn winning a pair of NHCh on his first two starts; only start at this level came at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day where he disappointed somewhat – it was also his first chase start on softer than gd; bounced back in fine style when dropped back to Cl 3 at Wincanton in mid-February, winning easily from before 2 out; not surprisingly, has been raised 11lbs for that, but have bigger worries about the ground as he has no form on softer than gd, although he did win a P2P on gd/yld in Ireland.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; going; course (?); up 11lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (34) distance seems to suit, but worries about ground make him a contender with question marks.
Calipso Collonges 7-10-12 (132)
28 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Chase (140 u) 24f gd Lud 4/1 4l 2/6 off 130
held up behind, chased clear pair before 13th, headway after 5 out, went 2nd before 2 out, soon ridden, kept on same pace, no impression with winner
Useful hurdler who left previous chase form behind when winning a Cl 3 NHCh over 20f at Uttoxeter on New Year’s Eve and then improving again when runner-up to Tommy Silver over 24f at Ludlow at the end of February; raised 2lbs for his latest effort, but likely better than that.
Plus: distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (23 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 2lbs; up in class:
Verdict: (33) promising chasing recruit whose chances can’t be ignored.

Small but competitive field in which only Gold Opera and Capard King fail to make the shortlist. In trying to add to the discards, the first to join the list is Claude And Goldie who has a much stiffer test to face over further. The chances of Rons Choice, meanwhile, seem to depend on her repeating her Welsh National form, which is not necessarily a sure thing as all her wins have come in mares’ chases. As such, she strikes me as being a questionable favourite and I’ll pass. Of the remaining quartet, one has to wonder at the recent resurgence in form that Le Reve has demonstrated; surely the 11yo can’t make it three in a row? I hope I’m right! Some Chaos and Calipso Collanges, meanwhile, are young chasers just starting out on their careers and both are subject to improvement. For me, there is just a nagging doubt about the ability of Some Chaos on ground softer than gd, and this I’d incline towards Calipso Collanges. The one I can’t get away from though is Blue Flight who despite having won three in a row looks like he can defy the hefty weight rise and add to his growing reputation. So for me it’s Blue Flight from Calipso Collanges and Le Reve.

Kelso 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 250 (135) 26f gd/sf – 11 Run

Last year – 250 (146) hv – 9 ran
Kris Spin 9/2 10-11-1 (140) by 2.25l from Donna’s Diamond 3/1 F 9-11-9 (146)
Arthurs Secret 12/1 8-9-7 (120) was 48.25l 4th

Teescomponents Lad 6-11-7 (130)
18 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (110 u) 19.5f gd/sf Carl 5/1 4l 1/10 off 125
mid-division, not fluent 5th, given reminders and responded to go 2nd soon after, led before 2 out, stayed on
Back in consistent form this term winning at Wetherby on Boxing Day and after being out-muscled over 24.5f at Haydock in January, bounced back to score over 19.5f at Carlisle last month; raised 5lbs for that, but bigger worry is whether he’ll stay this trip.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto (33 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) consistent sort and improving, although having to prove he gets the trip raises questions.
Worthy Farm 6-11-7 (130)
16 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (100 d) 23.5f gd/sf Ascot 5/1 0.5 1/16 off 123
raced very wide, chased leaders, 2nd before 2 out, challenged 2out, led soon after, clear when hung left and idled run-in, driven out
Still looks to be learning his trade despite recording his second win of the season at Ascot last month; raised 7lbs for that, but rider claims a useful 5lbs and there could well be more to come.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; course (?); up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) improving sort who could well add to his tally here and a contender.
Aye Right 6-11-7 (130)
02 Mar Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (70 u) 22.5f gd/sf Kelso 4/7 F 1.25l 22/4 off 129
led, not fluent 2 out, headed last, held towards finish
Won a pair of NHd over shorter here in the autumn and added to his tally by taking a HHd at Ayr at the start of the year; odds on the last twice when finishing runner-up here; up 1lb from his latest effort and is now raised in trip.
Plus: class (F); going (F); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance (?); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (42) consistent enough but claims damaged by stamina to prove at this trip
Captain Drake 6-11-4 (127)
04 Mar Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (60 u) 24d gd South 6/4 F 16 l /9 off 121
tracked leaders on outside, went 2nd bypassing 7th, led after next (5 out), joined bypassing 2 out, strongly pressed when left clear last
Just the four starts over hurdles backing up MdHd win at Uttoxeter in December by a large distance HHd victory over 24f at Southwell at the start of the month; raised 6lbs for that, but likely has far more improvement to show than that.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (19 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (36) fast-improving novice who has to be given a chance.

The potential fly in the ointment is top weight Rocklander back over hurdles, but have completed only two of his last six starts I think I can pass. Indeed, I feel like passing on most for one reason or another and from my shortlist both Teescomponent Lad and Aye Right are ruled out due to questions about the suitability of the trip. So that leaves me with Worthy Farm from Captain Drake, not very original but the best I can do!

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