Saturday 30th March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 30th March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:49 am

Didn’t get much right last week, but maybe the switch to the flat will bring a change of fortune – though hardly the easiest set of races to get us started. The Spring Mile has never been an especially lucrative hunting ground, although the Lincoln itself has presented better fortune as like last year. Like many races at Kempton, meanwhile, the Rosebery looks nothing like the calibre it was when run on turf. However, any and all winners would be gratefully accepted!

Doncaster 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (86) 8f gd – 16 Run

Last year – 280 (95) sf – 20 ran
High Acclaim 50/1 4-8-10 (81) Dr 1 by 0.25l from Humbert 14/1 4-9-5 (90) Dr 6
Kynren 8/1 8/1 4-9-8 (93) was 2.75l 3rd
Sands Chorus 50/1 6-9-10 (95) 36.52l 19th

Gulf Of Poets 7-9-6 (92) Dr 7
Started last season well by winning at Pontefract and Haydock in April on softer ground; that may be his major problem today, as well he goes well fresh, he does seem to prefer a little give underfoot; down 2lbs since finishing in midfield here in November.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down 2lbs;
Minus:
Verdict: (46) goes well fresh, but ground makes him a contender with questions.
Exec Chef 4-9-4 (90) Dr 10
Was rather struggling at the Simcock yard, but got off the mark with a hat-trick of wins when moving over to Boyle’s care; not disgraced when upped to Cl 3 at Nottingham on his final outing in October recording a career best.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (45) going the right way since changing yards and could be more to come, a contender.
Sod’s Law 4-8-12 (84) Dr 14
Showed progression towards season end winning at Ffos Las and Pontefract before finishing 3/15 on hv at Haydock on his final start; only ninth start, so likely more to come.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (C);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (40) Improving when last seen and could offer more as 4yo, a contender.

A race that’s rarely provided me with much luck, so only a cursory glance. With questions about the ground (and age) for Gulf Of Poets, I think I’ll go with the other pair and take Sod’s Law from Exec Chef. Though as Murphy was an optimist I’m sure to get it wrong!

Kempton 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (102) 11f AW – 16 Run

Last year – 399 (101) – 13 ran
Crowned Eagle 6/1 4-9-1 (95) Dr 7 by 0.75l from Kelly’s Dino 9/2 Jt F 5-8-2 (82) Dr 1
Fire Fighting 10/1 7-9-2 (96) Dr 12 was 2.1l 5th

Kelly’s Dino 6-9-5 (97) Dr 4
04 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (120 d) 12f AW Wolv 100/30 1.75l 2/8 off 96 – 101
tracked leaders, chased winner 2f out, kept on one pace
Successful return from over a 2-year break last season winning on both turf and AW; had a deserved break over this winter season, but returned to match his career best when runner-up over 12f at Wolverhampton earlier in the month; raised 1lb for that, but could be fitter today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (26 d)
Minus: up 1lb; yet to win at Kempton;
Verdict: (46) off 15lbs higher than when runner-up in last year’s renewal, burt a contender again.
Count Calabash 5-9-10 (102) Dr 3
16 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (160 s) 12f AW Kemp 7/2 6l 1/6 off 97 – 109
made all, ridden clear over 2f out, in no danger after, stayed on well, very easily
Recorded a career best when having the run of the race and easily defeating Caspar The Cub (-5) here last month; CTC 3lbs better off today, but will have to stick a lot closer to lay down a challenge.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (43 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: (45) front-runner who can’t be discounted if allowed to dominate, a contender.
Cosmeapolitan 6-9-4 (96) Dr 13
23 Feb Cl 3 Hcap (70 d) 12f AW Ling 11/4 0.75l 3/6 off 95 – 101
held up in touch, headway over 1f out, squeezed through to challenge on inside entering final furlong, kept on same pace closing stages
Should get the strong gallop he needs today, although not overly thrilled by his high draw; beat Caspar The Cub (-1) at Lingfield in December and is only 1lb worse off today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); AW career best lto;
Minus: up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (45) in good enough form and should get the pace he needs today, a contender.

Just the trio to look at for a quick glance, although Caspar The Cub and Forbidden Planet deserve a study too. However, time is short today, so in the belief that Kelly’s Dino has risen too high in the weights, I’m going for Count Calabash from Cosmeapolitan

Doncaster 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (107) 8f gd – 22 Run

Last year – 623 (107) sf – 20 ran
Addeybb 5/1 4-9-2 (99) Dr 10 by 2.75l from Lord Glitters 9/2 F 5-9-10 (107) Dr 9

Kynren 5-9-1 (98) Dr 22
Best
23 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (530) 8f gd/fm York 5/1 Co F 0.25l 2/18 off 97 – 106
mid-division, pushed along and headway 2f out, driven inside final furlong, went 2nd towards finish
Goes well fresh and was 2,75l 3/20 to High Acclaim (-12) in the Spring Mile here last season off 93; narrowly beaten in the Whitsun Cup at Sandown in May, although disappointed in the Hunt Cup at Ascot; bounced back when a creditable 3/19 in the John Smith’s at York before recording a career best when narrowly beaten over 8f there off 97 the following month; finished the season with a creditable 6/33 in the Cambridgeshire off 100 on fast ground, and then 5/20 off 99 in the Balmoral at Ascot in October.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); down 1lb;
Minus:
Verdict: (40) has shown C&D suits and capable on sf to gd/fm, contender on only 1lb higher than for CB
Auxerre 4-9-3 (100) Dr 17
Best/Last
10 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (90) 8f AW Kemp 2/1 F 0.5l 1/9 off 93 – 106
tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, challenged over 1f out, soon edged right, led inside final furlong, stayed on.
Promising debut at Newmarket last June and went on to win his next 3 starts, the latest on the AW at Kempton in October off 93 in first-time cheek-pieces; raised 7lbs for that and obviously way up in class here, but looks to have potential to burn.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (C); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 7lbs; up in class; cheek-pieces
Verdict: (37) obviously has potential, but just 4 starts, all in much smaller fields than this, are among the factors that make him a questionable contender at this price.
Saltonstall 5-9-3 (100) Dr 18
Best
27 May Prem Hcap (270) 8f gd Curr 7/1 1l 1/13 off 98 – 110
mid-division, headway into 3rd 2f out, ridden to lead 1 1/2f out, edged left briefly inside final furlong, stayed on well close home
Came back from almost a tear’s break to finish runner-up in the Irish equivalent off 95 last March; put in a career best when winning a decent hcap at the Curragh off 98 last May, but after finishing down the field in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, he showed little in his starts at Galway and the Curragh; moved stables at the end of January and new yard in form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); down 3lbs;
Minus: course (?); no form last 3 outings;
Verdict: (36) goes well fresh and not without a chance if new handler cab unlock his talent, a contender.
Zwayyan 6-9-5 (102) Dr 1
Best/Last
09 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (310) 8.5f AW Wolv 7/1 1l 1/13 off 97 – 105
towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
Never really fulfilled his initial promise with Haggas and moved to Balding in May last year; again showed promise on occasions, but only success was on the AW at Chelmsford in August; looked to be inferior to many of these when down the field in both the Cambridgeshire and the Balmoral as he rounded his season out; pulled somewhat of a surprise when taking the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton at the start of the month, beating Breden and Third Time Lucky; carries a 5lbs penalty for that, but this is a far more difficult task he faces today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: 5lbs penalty; draw (?);
Verdict: (35) looks an unlikely contender coming from the AW.
Ripp Orf 5-9-01 (98) Dr 9
Best
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120) 7f sf Ascot 6/1 2l 2/15 off 97 – 104
mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, no impression towards finish
Had a fine season last year winning 4 of his 16 starts, including a pair of very valuable 7f hcaps at Ascot; did win over 8f at Newmarket, so this trip not entirely beyond him, although that was at a lower level; was at it right from the off last season, so no reason to believe he won’t be fit; however, have a suspicion that he’s best at 7f on fast ground, although the straight course is a plus.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (C);
Minus: going (?); course;
Verdict: (31) very capable coming from off the pace, but worries about the trip make me wonder how strong a contender he may prove.
Humbert 5-9-1 (98) Dr 5
Best
28 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (220) 8f AW Nwcs 11/4 F 0.25l 1/14 off 97 – 105
with leader, led over 2f out, ridden inside final 2f, soon hard pressed, held on gamely inside final furlong
While all 4 wins have come on the AW, he’s also very capable on turf as he showed when runner-up in last year’s Spring Mile off 90 and then going on to occupy the same position in the Newbury Spring Cup off a 4lbs higher mark; did finish down the field in the Balmoral on his final start, however; moved to the O’Meara yard in January, though, and he has a fine record with new interns.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); down 1lb;
Minus: yet to win on turf; cheek-pieces
Verdict: (31) stable does well with new arrivals, and a possible contender.

We’re looking for a 4-6yo coming from a Cl 2/3 hcap that was run in 2018. Other things to take a note of are that claimers don’t have a great record, plus should be running of at least 1lb higher mark than for last flat success, be that on turf or the AW. One can also look in grave suspicion at those wearing headgear. In regard to the draw there was a time when it definitely paid to be drawn low, but no more as it appears that a mid to higher draw is where you want to be.

In looking at my shortlist, Zwayyan is the first to go as he fails on so many counts, plus I do not believe he has the ability to be competitive at this level – ditto those that followed him home at Wolverhampton. There are two ways of looking at Auxerre, that he’s thrown in at the weights and with potential he has for improvement, he’ll simply skate home. He may do, but this is only his fifth run (second in a handicap) and he’s never faced more than 9 opponents before, plus he is fitted with cheek-pieces. All these make his price look decidedly skinny, and unlike last year I’ll pass on the likely favourite.

From the remaining quartet, I’m not entirely sold on Ripp Orf over 8f, while O’Meara will have to find a heap of improvement for Humbert to win – he’s also in cheek-pieces. That leaves me with Kynren and possibly Salonstall providing they can repeat last season’s best. True, they both tailed off a little, but in the belief it’s best to catch them fresh I’m going for Kynren from Salonstall, with perhaps Humbert and Ripp Orf managing to get into the minor places.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 30th March

Postby martinkil » Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:52 pm

You had it right in the first way ...-
There are two ways of looking at Auxerre, that he’s thrown in at the weights and with potential he has for improvement, he’ll simply skate home.

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 30th March

Postby Devasteve » Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:49 pm

True Martin, but I couldn't have backed him at that price. Had I been betting, I would probably have taken my first choice (the runner-up) each way. Those I don't mind losing so much when you have a group horse slumming it in a handicap!


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