Saturday 6th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 6th April

Postby Devasteve » Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:16 am

Looks like a similar problem to last week with a short-priced favourite offering no value in the main race. He may well win, but at that price he’d be no bet for me, so as far as I’m concerned even after all the many hours invested, this year’s National is a non-starter as far as looking for a winner is concerned and I’ll be happy if my choice makes the frame. Sadly though, all those wasted hours precluded me from having a proper study of the previous race where there are a couple that are of interest. Let’s hope I can get lucky there!

Aintree 16.20 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 422 (148) 25f sf – 18 Run

Last year – 422 (148) sf – 16 ran
Thomas Patrick 3/1 F 6-10-10 (139) by 4l from On Tour 14/1 10-10-8 (137)
Oldgrangewood 14/1 7-11-3 (146) was 9.5l 4th

Polydora 7-11-1 (137)
16 Mar Cl 2 Nov Hcap Chase (250 u) 24f hv Uttox 10/1 9.25l 4/11 off 139 – 142*
held up towards rear, bumped 2nd, headway 5th, led 12th, headed14th, beaten 2 out
Just the 4 chase starts, being 3rd over C&D here on his chase debut at the end of October; won a NHCh at Newcastle at the start of December and then was 3/9 when dropped back in trip around the end of the year; off till mid-March when 4/11 at Uttoxeter in a new career best and likely targeted at this race, which his trainer won last year.
Plus: going (W); distance W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto; down 2lbs;
Minus: class (?); up in class;
Verdict (46) looks to have been targeted at this and a contender.
Mister Malarkey 6-11-11 (147)
13 Mar Gr 1 Nov Chase (980 u) 24.5f sf Chelt 20/1 18.5l 4/12 off 148 – 147
held up towards rear, slow 2nd, headway before 3 out, soon ridden, no impression on leaders from 2 out
Won 3 of his 5 chase starts, including a Gr 2 NCh at Ascot in mid-February when recording a career best, and then followed up with a solid 4/12 in the RSA at Cheltenham; has been dropped 1lb and looks to be a contender back in hcaps.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (24 days); down 1lb; down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (44) 17lbs above last winning hcap mark, but still a contender.
Amaulino 6-10-8 (130)
24 Mar Hcap Chase (220 u) 28.5f gd/yl DownPat 8/1 3.5l 1/9 off 121 – 128*
rear of mid-division, headway into 6th at 11th, 4th 4 out, 3rd 2 out,3rd and mistake at last, soon ridden, improved to lead inside final furlong, stayed on well close home
The addition of cheek-pieces has sparked progress with a pair of March wins at Leopardstown and Downpatrick both in career bests; runs off a 9lbs higher mark here, but could possibly have much more to give.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (13 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; course (?); up 9lbs;
Verdict: (34) not sure how Irish form computes, but a possible contender.

Of the remainder, Kildisart has to prove he can step up in trip, and while Debece has done all that’s been asked of him to date, this does ask more than the 5-horse and 3-horse novices he’s won the last 2 starts. More to my liking would be Nicholls Touch Kick who seems to have got his act together of late and was not disgraced by finishing in the top half of the Kim Muir – nothing of that class here.

Thus in a rushed analysis I’m going for Polydora from Mister Malarkey with Touch Kick perhaps outpointing Amaulino to complete the frame.

Aintree 17.15 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 5000 (164) 34.5f sf – 40 Run

Last year – 5000 (161) hv – 38 ran
Tiger Roll 10/1 8-10-13 (150) by 0.1l from Pleasant Company 25/1 10-10-11 (148)
Anibale Fly 10/1 8-11-8 (159) was 11.35l 4th
Vieux Lion Rouge 25/1 9-10-13 (150) was 56.1l 9th
Warriors Tale 33/1 9-10-12 149) PU before 2 out
Captain Redbeard 20/1 9-10-7 (144) UR 7th

Tiger Roll 9-11-5 (159)
03 Mar Cl 2 X-Country Chase (400 u) 30f sf Chelt 5/4 F 22l 1/15 off 159 – 171*
mid-division, took closer order 7th, went 2nd at 22nd, led after 4out, drew easily clear from next, in no danger after, impressive
Carries 6lbs more weight and runs off a 9lbs higher mark that when just denying Pleasant Company (-2) in last year’s renewal; PC renews the challenge on 2lbs better terms, but has shown nothing in his 2 starts this term (didn’t last year either!); TR, meanwhile, tore up the cross-country field at the Festival in a career-best performance, for which he escapes punishment here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (24 days); career best lto;
Minus: back up in class;
Verdict: (58) ticks all the boxes as tries to emulate Red Rum and must be thereabouts if staying out of trouble and a strong contender.
Rathvinden 11-11-0 (154)
23 Feb Gr 3 Chase (240 d) 25f gd/yld Fair 100/30 3.5l 1/6 off 154 – 159*
tracked leaders in 4th, left 3rd at 11th, went 2nd 3 out, pushed along to lead before last, ridden and stayed on well run-in
Very lightly raced for his age, but has been cannily placed to win 6 of his 13 chase starts, 4 in grade class, albeit mainly in small fields; however, did win over 32f on sf at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival; went on to finish 4/11 to The Storyteller in the Champion Novice at Punchestown last April; just the one start this term, winning a Gr 3 at Fairyhouse in February; surprisingly, making his hcap debut today, nut not hard to see why he’s Ruby’s choice.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (46) looks the pick of the Mullen entries and no surprise were he to go close, a contender.
Jury Duty 8-10-11 (151)
16 Mar Chase (110 d) 26f sf Down Royal 3/1 6.5l 1/5 off 152 – 160*
held up, closer in 3rd 3 out where left 2nd, pushed along before 2out, disputed 2 out, narrow lead last, ridden and kept on well run-in
Useful hurdler who seems well suited by a stamina test on demanding ground and back over fences after a 5-month break accounted for Mala Beach and Don Poli with a career best at Down Royal last month; ironically, he runs off 1lb lower mark here and can’t be ignored.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto; down 1lb;
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (45) stable companion of Tiger Roll, but another to consider as a contender.
Lake View Lad 9-11-1 (155)
12 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (620 u) 25f sf Chelt 25/1 3.25l 3/24 off 155 – 160
in touch, pushed along after 4 out, one pace 2 out, went 3rd and ridden after last, kept on, not reach front pair
Much improved this season winning the Rehearsal and the Rowland Meyrick before finishing 3/24 to Beware The Bear and Vintage Clouds (-11) in the Ultima at Cheltenham,; meets VC on the same terms for the 2l that separated, but may well appreciate the step up in trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (25 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (44) improved stayer this term, but wonder if this comes a little soon after a tough race at Cheltenham; nevertheless, a potential contender.
Anibale Fly 9-11-10 (164)
15 Mar Gr 1 Chase (3520) 26.5f gd/sf Chelt 22/1 2.5l 2/16 off 164 – 174*
held up towards rear, headway bypassing normal 3 out, went 3rd last, stayed on well and went 2nd final 100 yards, unable to trouble winner
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark and carries 2lbs more actual weight than when 4th in last year’s renewal; however, has improved again and recorded a new career best when runner-up in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham – last year was only 3rd; will run his race and likely be thereabouts, but tough giving weight to the field.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (22 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: top weight;
Verdict: (44) undoubtedly the class horse of the race, but so many have tried and failed that while he may go close I can’t see him as a winning contender.

Plenty of others I could make a case for, but you’ve got to stop somewhere! One interesting trend in recent years has been the growing dominance of classier winners; 6 of the last 10 winners have carried 10-13 or more, whereas back in the day you’d automatically draw a line through such horses. It’s also notable that 5 of the last 6 winners have been 8yos, and the other was 9yo – so are the trends a-changing? They could also be in another area, as several of the more fancied runners have had less than the traditional minimum of 3 season outings.

Looking at my shortlist, there is a similarity to last week in that we have a ridiculously short-priced favourite in last year’s winner, Tiger Roll. He could well win, but I wouldn’t be backing him at that price and instead would be searching for an e/w alternative. With just a single outing this year, the lightly-raced 11yo Rathvinden looks a little unprepared and being Ruby’s choice might have something to do with the price. Jury Duty looks a potential 8yo, but has already won twice this season – and that’s generally a no-no! It’s also a comment that applies to Lake View Lad. While I’m not ruling out Tiger Roll winning, I’m going against all my usual reason and taking Anibale Fly to at least make the frame and he would be my choice for an e/w bet.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 6th April

Postby martinkil » Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:51 pm

I usually hate backing favourites, and in the National is almost unheard of ... but this year I will be backing Tiger Roll. I actually had a small bet on him in his hurdle run to "blow the cobwebs away" (can't remember if it was pre-race or during the race when he was travelling best), and the way he powered away from the field in the x-country was impressive. I was trying to formulate a reason why he wouldn't win today, but apart from the obvious (falls and BD) I have him as having improved at least the 9lb he's gone up from last year. He looks better than ever.

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 6th April

Postby Devasteve » Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:51 am

Good choice Martin, and I must admit I'm not at all surprised he won. Just pleased that Anibale Fly plugged on into 5th.
As regards the previous race, we now know that Kildisart stays 3 miles!


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