Saturday 13th April

[Devasteve]

Pleased that last week’s pick ran into the paying places in the National, as the favourite did what many (including myself) expected him to do. I’ll doubt we’ll have the same luck up at Ayr though, while down at Newbury the Spring Cup looks as problematic as ever.

Newbury 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (105) 8f sf – 27 Run

Last year – 311 (104) gd/sf – 22 ran
Taqdeer 4/1 F 5-9-1 (95) Dr 16 by 0.25l from Humbert 11/1 4-9-0 (94) Dr 24
Third Time Lucky 20/1 6-9-1 (95) Dr 10 was 9.6l 6th

Exec Chef 4-9-0 (95) Dr 19
30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f gd Donc 6/1 0.5l 2/16 off 90 – 99*
held up in touch, switched right 2f out, ridden 1f out, every chance well inside final furlong, ran on
Showed marked improvement on joining this yard mid-season last year, completing a hat-trick of wins (including over C&D here) before finishing 3/14 on his final start at Nottingham in October; showed improvement in recording a career best on his return when finishing runner-up to Petrus (1) in the Spring Mile at Doncaster; has been raised 5lbs for that, but there could well be more to come, plus drying ground to his advantage.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 5lbs; draw (?);
Verdict: (48) drawn a little high, but ticks a lot of boxes and comes from a reasonable trial race; a contender.
Red Starlight 4-9-5 (100) Dr 1
30 Mar Listed Stks (210 d) 8f gd Donc 9/2 2l 2/9 off 100 – 104*
tracked leader, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure
C&D winner here in similar conditions as a 2yo and won over 8f on fast ground at Newmarket last season before going on to claim a pair of AW hcaps; has shown form in listed company since, including when recording a career best when runner-up to Sharja Bridge (+5) on her return at Doncaster; runs off the same mark today returned to hcaps, but not sure she’s that well drawn in stall 1.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: drawn in stall 1
Verdict: (42) if the draw doesn’t prove too troublesome, she could be thereabouts, a contender.
Borodin 4-8-10 (91) Dr 2
22 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (190 u) 8f hv Ayr 7/1 2.25l 3/12 off 91 – 95*
tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
Useful first season winning 2 of his 7 starts on gd/fm and sf, before setting another career best when raised to this level on heavier ground at Ayr in September and finishing 3/12 to Waarif (+5); not seen since, but runs off the same mark and stable in good form, plus has won this race in the past; seems more likely than stable companion Third Time Lucky who was 6th last year off 1lb lower mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 203-days break; low draw;
Verdict: (41) not best drawn in stall 2, but not without a chance if fit for the task and a contender.
Ripp Orf 5-9-2 (97) Dr 25
30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (620 u) 8f gd Donc 14/1 4l 5/19 off 98 – 101
mid-division, switched right and headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on, never nearer
Fine campaign last term when winning 4 times, including a pair of valuable 7f hcaps at Ascot; still think he’s better over 7f, but has won over 8f and was staying on in the Lincoln lto where he finished just ahead of Another Batt (+4); should certainly confirm that running on today’s terms.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto; down 1lb;
Minus: high draw
Verdict: (39) not sure there will be a strong enough pace to play to his strengths, but likely to be staying on at the finish and a contender.
Another Batt 4-9-10 (105) Dr 14
30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (620 d) 8f gd Donc 25/1 4.25l 6/19 off 107 – 109
steadied start, held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace
Useful sort who finished 4/20 to Sharja Bridge (+9) in the Balmoral at Ascot in October off 104; scored off the same mark in a Meydan hcap in January, though found things tougher off a higher mark in subsequent hcaps there; fair enough effort to finish 6/19 in the Lincoln last month and has been dropped a couple of lbs since; however, top weight here and that’s a tough ask.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: top weight;
Verdict: (39) looks to have a tough task off top weight and not the strongest contender,

Cases could be made for a number of others including the likes of Ibraz (distance?), Balmoral runner-up, Escobar (weight) and History Maker (strike rate?), so I’ll stick with my shortlist. Nothing suits all the trends of course – when do they? – and it’s a little ironic that I have horse from stalls 1 & 2, as the bottom trio of stalls haven’t produced a winner in the best part of a decade! My best drawn one is Another Batt, but lumbered with top weight he’s the first to go. The draw does worry me for Red Starlight and Borodin, while Ripp Orf is drawn in the 20s and I’m not sure there’s enough pace to suit him. Exec Chef is not ideally drawn in 19, but looks to have the best credentials and is chosen from Borodin (would have liked a recent run) and perhaps Red Starlight and Ripp Off running on late.

Ayr 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 1224 (160) 32f gd – 28 Run

Last year – 1224 (150) gd – 29 ran
Joe Farrell 33/1 9-10-6 (135) by 0.02l from Ballyoptic 9/1 8-11-6 (149)
Vintage Clouds 12/1 8-10-12 (141) was 4.02l 3rd
Doing Fine 12/1 10-10-6 (135) was 11.02l 4th
Sizing Codelco 28/1 9-11-2 (150) was 20.29l 8th
Beware The Bear 14/1 8-11-6 (149) was PU after 20th
Cogry 25/1 9-10-8 (137) was PU before 22nd

Beware The Bear 9-11-12 (160)
12 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (620 u) 25f sf Chelt 10/1 1.25l 1/24 off 151 – 161*
held up towards rear, headway into mid-division on outside 4th,close up 9th, effort after 3 out, led last, clear when edged left flat, ridden out, held on towards finish
PU in last year’s renewal off an 11lbs lower mark, but has been a different animal since the application of blinkers, winning twice at Cheltenham, in January and the Ultima at the Festival where he had Vintage Clouds (-7) 1.25l back; has been raised 9lbs for that and is thus 4lbs worse off with VC today; however, the latter who was 3rd in last year’s renewal off an 8lbs lower mark, has an expensive habit of running well without winning, plus fell at the first at Aintree last week; horses have won this off top weight, but they were class acts, so it’s a tough ask for BTB.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (32 days); career best lto);
Minus: up 9lbs;
Verdict: (52) improved chaser of late, but tough ask off top weight and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Cloth Cap 7-10-0 (134)
23 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (100 u) 25f gd Catt 85/40 F 2.25l 1/9 off 125 – 138*
tracked leaders, headway on inside before 2 out, led between last2, ridden clear flat, stayed on well (4 fences omitted)
Looks to have great potential as a staying chaser having won 2 of his 3 starts over fences, the last at Catterick in November; has been raised 9lbs for that, plus shoots way up in class, but lightly-raced 7yos have won in the past.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 9lbs; up 2 classes; 141-days break;
Verdict: (43) promising, but much to prove and a contender with questions.
Geronimo 8-10-0 (134)
20 Jan Cl 4 Hcap Chase (50 d) 27f gd/sf Ayr 15/8 F 2.25l 1/12 off 122 – 135*
in touch, headway to lead before 4 out, soon ridden, kept on under pressure from next, going away near finish
Won 2 of his 4 chase starts (both here) and looks another with great potential as a staying chaser; the way he finished here in January suggests that he’ll enjoy the step up in trip; raised 12lbs for his career best and yet still runs from 2lbs out of the handicap, although his rider’s claim will more than counter that; another aspiring chaser going places.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); 83-days break; up 12lbs; up 3 classes; 2lbs ooh;
Verdict: (40) another contender with questions as he tries to raise his game.
Crosspark 9-10-8 (142)
23 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (500 u) 32.5f gd/sf Nwcs 12/1 0.25l 1/16 off 135 – 145*
held up in touch, challenged last, ridden run-in, kept on to lead towards finish
Was recording his third win of the season when edging out Mysteree (-8) in the Eider at Newcastle in February and meets him on the same terms today; raised 7lbs for that career-best effort, but there may yet be more to come; certainly won’t be troubled by the trip.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (49 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) genuine staying chaser it seems and has to b e considered a contender here.
Big River 9-10-6 (140)
12 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (620 u) 25f sf Chelt 28/1 6.5l 4/24 off 140 – 145
mistake 1st, in touch and not always fluent, dropped to mid-division 8th, behind from 16th, ridden after 2 out, stayed on under pressure from last, took 4th towards finish, never nearer
Didn’t help his cause with a number of jumping errors in the Ultima at Cheltenham, but stayed on strongly from the last to claim 4th; he was, however, coming back from a 3-month break, so may be somewhat more attuned to his task today; runs off the same mark today, so meets the pair in front on considerably better terms; not without chances if staying this trip.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (32 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (38) no surprise were he to reverse Ultima running, providing he stays teh trip of course; a contender.

Loads of contender here, as while my figures fail to support it, one could make a strong case for Crosshue Boy who appears to have been laid out for this and using hurdle runs just to keep him fit. If you ignore Impulsive Star’s run at the Festival where he was badly hampered, you could give him a chance too. Then, of course, there’s Sue Smith’s Vintage Clouds who usually flatters to deceive, except when I don’t pick him! And then there’s Dingo Dollar who was runner-up to Crosshue Boy in a nov hcap here last year. Still, you can’t include them all!

Looking at my shortlist, I’m not convinced that Beware The Bear is good enough to win with top weight, so I’ll drop him. Of the remaining quartet I haven’t a clue, as both Cloth Cap and Geronimo are both speculative at best, while the 9yo pair of Crosspark and Big River have a little to prove at this level. Let’s hope I get one in the frame by picking Geronimo to win from Crosspark and Big River with Cloth Cap maybe edging Beware The Bear out of the frame.