Wednesday 17th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Wednesday 17th April

Postby Devasteve » Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:28 am

The old traditional VDW approach has been raised elsewhere recently and as I had a holiday today due to the elections, I did an analysis as best I understand his basic approach. Although it is a NH race at Cheltenham, it is of decent class, but don't blame me if it doesn't turn out right, as I've never really got the hang of it!!.

Cheltenham 14.40 Gr 2 Hcap 338 (150) 20.5f gd – 9 Run

Mister Whitaker 7-11-9 (149) 100/30*
Con 9* (18) AB 205* Lto 620*
Lto 12/03 Gr 3 HCh (620 u) 25f sf Chelt 8/1 CoF PU/24 off 151
held up, always towards rear, weakened 3 out, pulled up before next
2nd Last 19/01 Cl2 HCh (470 d) gd/sf 21f Asc 11/2 26l 4/10 off 152 – 154
tracked leaders, hit 8th, slightly outpaced in 5th place after 11th,plugged on in 4th from 3 out
Best 4th Last 04/11/18 List Ch (170 d) 20f gd Carl 3/1 2.25l 1/5 off 145 – 154CB
towards rear, headway under pressure on outside before 3 out, soon outpaced, stayed on to take 4th near finish, never nearer
Class: W; Going: W Distance: W Course: W
Last race excusable due to step up in trip
Wenyerreadyfreddie 8-11-8 (148) 5/1*
Con 9* AB 80* Lto 70
Lto: 29/12/18 Cl 3 NHCh (70 d 22.5f gd/sf Newb 15/8 F 40l 7/9 off 148 – 131
led, pecked 7th (water), headed approaching 4 out, lost 2nd 2 out,(normal 3 out), weakened bypassing omitted 2 out
2nd Last 23/11/18 Cl 2 NCh (100 s) 19f gd Asc 4/6 F 0.5l 1/7 off 145 – 153
jumped left throughout, made all, ridden and joined last, driven and ran on
Best 3rd Last 03/11/18 Cl 3 NHCh (100 u) 19f gd Asc 13/8 F 18l 1/7 off 130 – 153 CB
led until after 4th, remained prominent, led again after next, headed before 7th, led again 4 out, driven clear 2 out, impressive
Class: 0/0 Going: W Distance: 0/2 Course: 0/0
Failed to stay 22.5f lto and has not won beyond 19f, so question on trip, plus is up considerably in class
Highway One O One 7-11-5 (145) 6/1*
Con 15 AB 89* Lto 390*
Lto: 12/03 List NHCh (390 u) 20f sf Chelt 14/1 43l 10/20 off 145 – 128
prominent, led 2nd, headed 3 out, weakening when mistake 2 out
Best 2nd Last Cl 2 NHCh (170 d) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt 8/1 2l 2/8 off 143 – 151 CB
led, jumped well, clear 8th until 11th, joined 2 out, headed last, not much room and switched right flat, held by winner, kept on
Class: 0/3 Going: F Distance: F Course: F
Has form at around this trip, but question about ability to win at this level
Rene’s Girl 9-11-4 (144) 7/2*
Con 13 AB 139* Lto 440*
Best/Lto: List Ch (440 u) 20.5f gd Donc 9/2 3.75l 2/5 off 144 – 149 CB
led, ridden and headed 3 out, no impression on winner after, kept on
Class: W Going: W Distance: W Course 0/0
Decent enough effort at Doncaster lto and not entirely ruled out
Kings Monarch 6-10-4 (130) (2lbd ooh) 13/2*
Con 12* AB 49 Lto 50
Best/Lto: 09/03 Cl 4 NHCh (50s) 21f gd/sf Here 6/5 F 5l 1/7 off 117 – 135 CB
not fluent a few times, held up in rear, headway after 4 out, went2nd after next, led last, stayed on well
Class: 0/0 Going: 0/1 Distance: W Course 0/0
Very much up in class from what he’s shown so far and can’t afford jumping errors here.
Imperial Presence 8-11-10 (150) 17/2
Con 4# AB 96 Lto 160
Lto 10/9/18 Cl 2 HCh (160 s) 20f gd Perth 9/4F 3.75l 2/7 off 150 – 148
led, clear 5th until 9th, headed 2 out, no impression on winner flat
Best 2nd Last 29/7/18 Cl 2 HCh (160 u) 20f sf Uttox 13/8F 8l 1/5 off 142 – 152 CB
made virtually all, mostly jumped really well, clear 3 out, stayed on
Class: 0/0 Going: W Distance: W Course 0/0
Has been in good enough form at below this level and worth considering raised in class.
Got Away 6-10-11 (137) 16/1
Con 6# AB 147# Lto 130
Lto 23/03 Cl 2 HCh (130 u) 20f gd/sf Newb 10/1 8l 3/5 off 138 – 138
tracked leaders, effort 3 out, ridden between last 2, one pace after last, no impression with front pair flat
2nd last 08/03 Cl 3 HCh (60d) 20f gd Leic 6/4 1l 2/4 off 136 – 144
chased leaders, effort after 3 out, went 2nd approaching last, kept on well under pressure
Best/3rd Last 14/02 Cl 3 HCh (80 d) 20f gd Leic 11/4 4.5l 1/3 off 132 – 144 CB
tracked leader, jumped right 9th, led after 5 out, drew clear 2 out, very easily
Class: W Going: W Distance: W Course: 0/0
Has been in good form in Cl 3 of late, but failure raised to Cl 2 lto damages his chances raised to this level.

Going the classic VDW route, the three most consistent from the first five in the forecast are: Wenyerreadyfreddie (9), Mister Whitaker (9) – last run ignored as wrong distance – and Kings Monarch (12). In addition one should check the supplementary consistent horses from outside the forecast, which are Imperial Presence (4) and Got Away (6). Got Away is swiftly dismissed as he has given no indication of late that he can win at this level. Imperial Presence, meanwhile, was unable to win a Cl 2 lto off his new mark and thus looks unlikely to win in higher class today.

Looking next at the highest ability ratings from those in the betting, we have Mister Whitaker (205), Rene’s Girl (139) and ignoring Got Away (147) and Imperial Presence (96) who have already been discarded, it’s a quite a drop to Highway One O One (89) and Wenyerreadfreddie (80).

The final check is the class of race they’re coming from and again Mister Whitaker is to the fore coming from (620); true it wasn’t a form run, but it was too long a trip and the run is ignored. Then comes Rene’s Girl (440) and as it was a form run in a career best that’s another box ticked. Highway One O One (370) comes next, but it’s hard to find n excuse for the disappointing run her at the Festival, and with no other boxes ticked I’m inclined to pass. Imperial Presence (140) would be the next one, but we’ve already passed there.

So looking at all the foregoing with my simplistic VDW hat on, I would have to side with Mister Whitaker from Rene’s Girl and if there is to be a surprise, it could be Imperial Presence who has ticked a few boxes.

Redwinter
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:04 am

Re: Wednesday 17th April

Postby Redwinter » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:34 am

You make interesting reading. Personally, I went for Got away. But interested what you meant by VDW

martinkil
Posts: 3415
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Wednesday 17th April

Postby martinkil » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:57 am

Google - Van Der Wheil - There are many versions of the basic approach which uses average prize money


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