Friday 19th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 19th April

Postby Devasteve » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:53 am

After my good fortune on Wednesday, I'll have another look with the traditional VDW pointers.

Bath 15.30 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (100) 8f gd/fm – 15 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 311 (107) fm – 11 ran
Oh This Is Us 3/1 4-9-10 (107) Dr 9 by 0.25l from Hors De Combat 9/1 6-9-5 (102) Dr 12

Petrus 4-9-7 (97) Dr 14 6/1*
Cons 14* AB 163* Lto 280*
Lto: 30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f gd Donc 7/1 0.5l 1/16 off 91 – 101*
held up in touch, pushed along 2f out, led just over 1f out, ridden and edged right inside final furlong, driven out
Didn’t quite live up to Group ambitions as a 2yo, but began to show promise when dropped to hcap class mid to end of last season, though needs gd ground or faster; gelded between seasons and returned in first-time cheekpieces to take the Spring Mile at Doncaster on opening day; raised 6lbs for that but could well be more to come..
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (20 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs; current stable form (0/11 14d);
Verdict: (50) contender with conditions suiting if handling the turn.
Salute The Soldier 4-9-5 (95) Dr 13 5/1*
Cons 5* AB 66 Lto 76*
Lto: 16 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (70 d) 8.5f AW Wolv Ev F 1 disq 2/10 off 94 – 100*
raced keenly, tracked leaders, close 3rd after 2f, 2nd 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and hung both ways inside final furlong, all out(demoted to 2nd)
Won 2 of 4 starts last season, both on AW, and ran well on return from 3-month break until hanging in the final furlong at Wolverhampton and ending up being placed 2nd to Executive Forde in a Cl 3; nevertheless it was a career best and should strip fitter today; however, has to transfer his AW form to turf off 1lb higher mark.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (34 days); career best (lto);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 1lb; up in class; returning to turf;
Verdict: (36) plenty of questions to answer and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Mythical Madness 8-9-2 (92) Dr 1 10/1*
Cons 12* AB 78* Lto 80*
Lto: 06 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (80 u) 10f AW Ling 12/1 0.25l 2/5 off 90 – 96
close up, headway to chase leading pair 2f out, ridden to challenge winner inside final furlong, ran on, just held
It’s now 18 races since he last got his head in front and probably not helped coming out of stall 1 today; decent effort at Lingfield a fortnight back, but this looks much tougher opposition off a 2lbs higher mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (13d);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; up in class; not won in 18 starts; drawn 1;
Verdict: (41) never won at this level and looks unlikely to break the duck today.
Zwayyan 6-9-10 (100) Dr 8 7/1*
Cons 17 AB 136* Lto 620*
Lto: 30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (620 u) 10/1 5l 7/19 off 102 – 103
mid-division, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, weakened final furlong
Decent enough strike record (6/22) with last success coming in the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton in early March off 97; as usual it proved a poor guide, but didn’t run badly to finish 7/19 in the main event; this nowhere near as tough and has been dropped a couple of lbs; nevertheless, is probably better on AW than turf.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (20 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (39) not without a chance, but suspect he’s better on AW,
Waarif 6-9-8 (98) Dr 6 4/1*
Cons 21 AB 144* Lto 620*
Lto: 30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (620 d) 25/1 6l 10/19 off 100 – 98
steadied start, held up, headway when not clear run over 1f out, never on terms
Useful sort who won 4 times last season including over today’s claimer fro who he goes well; not too bad an effort in the Lincoln considering he was coming off a 5-month break, plus ran into trouble in running; runs off a 2lbs lower mark today, which is only 3lbs higher than when winning at Ayr in September; no surprise were he to go well.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (20 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (38) another with a chance on best form and could possibly reverse Lincoln running with Zwayyan.

Those are the ones from the front of the market and I don’t see those further down the betting playing a major role, although Ghaydah is a C&D winner. While Salute The Soldier has been consistent of late, that has all been on the AW and he has questions to answer at this level on turf. There’s nothing else that’s super-consistent, although Petrus has the class and comes from a reasonable race lto. I think it would be stretching things to see Mythical Madness getting his first win at this level, but while Waarif and Zwayyan may be lacking in consistency, they have to class to get involved here. All in all though I think Petrus has the best claims and he should at least make the frame, while Waarif , perhaps, may prove best of the rest.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Friday 19th April

Postby martinkil » Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:07 am

If you pick any more winners you'll need asbestos gloves to type the next post!! - nicely done with the last two


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