Saturday 20th April

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 20th April

Postby Devasteve » Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:11 am

I have the feeling you could be right Martin!

Having enjoyed good fortune so far this week I decided to follow along with the old VDW pointers for a while. To be honest though, neither race really lends itself to the methodology today and there no clear cut selections like on Wednesday and yesterday. So we shall see what happens, and be grateful for the small mercies this week has afforded us to date!

Musselburgh 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (106) 5f gd – 17 Run (16 at best)

Last year – 623 (106) gd/fm – 16 Run
Caspian Prince 16/1 9-9-10 (106) Dr 9 by 2.75l from Major Jumbo 6/1 4-9-0 (101) Dr 10
Copper Knight 8/1 4-8-13 (95) Dr 13 was 3.65l 6th

Final Venture 7-9-7 (103) Dr 17
9/1* Con 13* AB 250* Lto 310*
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C);
Minus: course (?); losing run 19 dating to Jun ’17;
Verdict: (45) has run well on several occasions, especially at York, but long losing run mean a contender with major question marks.
Mokaatil 4-8-8 (90) Dr 10
9/1* Con 12* AB 96* Lto 160*
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (5 days);
Minus: course (?); 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: (44) changed yards in November and appears much better on turf than AW, gaining his first win for new connections earlier in teh week; carries a penalty in tougher race, but a contender.
Saaheq 5-8-3 (85) Dr 15
13/2* Con 7* AB 70* Lto 60
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (16 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?);
Verdict: (43) yet to run at this level and CB lto was in a Cl 4 on AW, not the strongest contender perhaps.

While these were the most consistent of top 5 in the betting, others had better consistency figures, Copper Knight, Captain Colby and Primo’s Comet all sporting 9. Final Venture’s ability – which is some year’s old – was followed by Copper Knight (203), Captain Colby (162) and A Momentofmadness (140), all substantially higher than Mokaatil’s 96. When it comes to lto, Final Venture (310) led A Momentofmadness (260), but Mokaatil was the same as Copper Knight at 160, followed by Captain Colby (120). As is often the case with sprints, this is a mess and best avoided, as with it being early season fitness rather than consistency come to the fore. Final Venture has the highest mark, but to be honest I can’t see him winning after all this time, and would more likely chance Mokaatil to make the frame if I had to make a choice.

Musselburgh 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (106) 14f gd – 14 Run

Last year – 623 (108) hv – 13 ran
Brandon Castle 10/1 6-8-11 (95) Dr 3 by 0.25l from time To Study 11/4 F 4-9-2 (102) Dr 4
Fire Jet 33/1 5-8-7 (91) Dr 9 was 11.75l 5th
Mirsaale 20/1 8-8-7 (91) Dr 7 was 14.75l 6th
Sir Chauvelin 12/1 6-9-0 (98) Dr 8 was 22.25l 7th

Austrian School 4-9-5 (102) Dr 14
4/1* Cons 7* AB 72* Lto 370*
Lto: 05 Oct List Stks (370 u) 14d gd Ascot 11/2 2l 3/7 off 102 – 106
led after 1f, ridden and headed over 1f out, kept on one pace
CB (2nd last): 14 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (260 u) 14.5f gd/sf Donc 7/1 0.1l 2/14 off 100 – 107*
led early, tracked leader, ridden over 2f out, led over 1f out, kept on and headed close home
Won his first 2 starts last season and consistent thereafter making the frame on numerous occasions including on his final start at Ascot in October.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down in class;
Minus: 197-day break;
Verdict: (48) can obviously go well fresh and looks the sort to improve as a 4yo, a contender.
Lucky Deal 4-8-13 (96) Dr 10
8/1* Cons 7* AB 133* Lto 160*
Lto: 01 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (160 u) 16.5f AW Nwcs 5/6 F 3l 4/5 off 96
tracked leader, led 11f out, headed narrowly 3f out, ridden to lead again over 1f out, soon headed, no extra towards finish
CB (2nd last): 20 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (120 u) 16f AW Chelm 6/4 F 3l 1/5 off 91 – 101*
tracked clear leader, close up halfway, led 2f out, ridden clear over1f out, in no danger after, ran on, eased towards finish, easily
Three times a winner last season, twice on turf, and recorded his third win at Chelmsford in February; likely needed a stronger pace at Newcastle lto, as he stays the trip; best on turf a 60 Cl 4 at Nottingham in October off 87 over this trip in similar conditions.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (19 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (41) better record on AW at present, but acts on turf and obviously fit, a possible contender.
Ulster 4-8-10 (93) Dr 6
11/2* Cons 5* AB 62 Lto 90*
Lto: 13 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (90 u) 16f AW Kemp 8/11 F 0.1l 2/8 off 91 – 98
led, ridden inside final furlong, headed towards finish
CB (2nd last): 26 Feb Cl 4 Hcap (50 u) 14f AW Wolv 11/8 F 0.1l 2/5 off 87 – 100*
led, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and headed close home
Transferred from the bin Suroor yard at the start of the year and won a pair of Kempton novices over 12f on his first 2 starts for his new connections and has since twice been caught late on in hcaps over 14f and 16f; making turf debut, which has to be a question, as does his step up to this level not having won above Cl 5.
Plus: distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (38 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); turf (?); up in class;
Verdict: (28) promising sort, but too many question marks to be a strong contender for me.

From the first five in the forecast, the three most consistent are Ulster, Austrian School, and Lucky Deal. The highest ability is led by Pipes Of Peace at 467, but that may be misleading as he has only won 1 of his 15 starts, on the AW, and is 0/6 of turf. He’s followed by Making Miracles on 340, who is hardly consistent, and then there’s a big drop to Lucky Deal on 139 and Austrian School on 72. Looking at the races they’ve come from, Austrian School comes from a 370, while both Making Miracles and Pipes of Peace come from 310. Lucky Deal from 160 and Uster on 90 come from much lower levels.

With nothing clearly topping all three categories, it’s a race to be wary of, although Austrian School would appear to have the most going for it. Of the others, Making Miracles may be thereabouts, while from further down the betting, C&D winner Artarmon could also figure.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 20th April

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:00 pm

Austrian School would appear to have the most going for it. - it sure did :) 4-1 sp - and the winner of the other one came from the 3 highlighted.

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 20th April

Postby Devasteve » Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:07 pm

Thanks Martin, the luck was still running - the first race has teh first three home, albeit in the wrong order.

Was going to try again today, but 4 N/R in the Plumpton race upset calculations, so I decided against it - good job I did, as I wouldn't have picked the winner!


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