Wednesday 24th April

[Devasteve]

Decided to have a quick squint at this today – only time for a single race I’m afraid. Fingers crossed then that the VDW continue to at least identify likely winners.

Epsom 15.55 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (107) 10f gd – 13 Run (12 at best)

Last year – 311 (102) gd – 10 ran
Ajman King 9/4 F 4-8-12 (93) Dr 2 by 1l from Dash of Spice 6/1 4-8-2 (83) Dr 8

Most consistent in forecast:
Mildenberger 4-9-9 (107) Dr 1
5/2* Con 6* AB 127* Lto 940*
Lto/CB: 17 May ’18 3yo Gr 2 Stks (940 u) 10.5f gd/fm York 7/2 4.5l 2/9 off 107 – 108
soon led, quickened pace 3f out, ridden and headed 2f out, rallied to chase winner inside final furlong
Useful 2yo winning 3 of 5 starts and finishing 3rd to Roaring Lion in Royal Lodge Stks on final start; won the listed Feilden Stks on his return at Newmarket before being runner-up to Roaring Lion in the Dante Stks at York; not seen since but improved to record career best in higher class lto and now dropped in class to make hcap debut off same mark.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; career best lto; down in class; goes well fresh;
Minus: course (?); 342 days break; hcap debut;
Verdict: (46) first-time out winner both previous seasons and dropped in class to make hcap debut; looks a strong contender if handling the course.
Crossed Baton 4-9-7 (105) Dr 9
9/2* Con 10* AB 125* Lto 2020*
Lto: 15 Aug ’18 3yo Gr 2 Stks (2020 u) 10f gd/sf Dea 61/10 15l 6/7 – 87
tracked leader on outer, pushed along to chase leader 2.5 furlong out, unable to quicken and soon ridden, no response and gradually weakened from over 1 furlong out.
CB/ 2nd Last: 15 Jul ’18 3yo Gr 2 Stks (660 u) 10.5 gd/sf Msn 2/1 Jt F 1l 2/5 – 109*
soon crossed over to track leader after 1f, led, 2f out, ridden and headed inside final 2f, well held final furlong, no chance with winner, stayed on for 2nd
Won his second start at Sandown as a 2yo and went on to complete a hat-trick when taking the Blue Ribbon Trial at last year’s meeting here; subsequently down the field in the Dante at York, but bounced back to finish runner-up to Hunting Horn in the Hampton Court Stks at Royal Ascot; final 2 starts in France, being runner-up to Gyllen at Maisons-Lafitte in July though a disappointing 6/7 at Deauville in August; underwent wind surgery last September and first start since, although has something to find with Mildenberger on Dante running.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W+); down in class; first run since wind surgery;
Minus: 252 days break; hcap debut;
Verdict: (42) could well improve for wind operation, but looks unlikely to reverse Dante running with Mildenberger on just 2lbs better terms;
Desert Wind 4-8-9 (93) Dr 13
8/1* Con 11* AB 36 Lto 310*
Lto: 30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (310 d) 11f AW Kemp 5/1 3l 3/16 off 93 – 97
close up, ridden and headway 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong
CB/ 3rd Last: 21 Jun Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (750 u) 8f gd/fm Ascot 66/1 2.5l 4/30 off 92 – 97*
raced centre, tracked winner until left in lead of group after 3f, in touch when merged with stands side 4f out, ridden 2f out, kept on inside final furlong
Ran up a hat-trick of novice wins on the AW in the early months of last year, but has yet to add to his tally in 4 subsequent starts despite being thereabouts, as when 4th in the Britannia at Royal Ascot which confirmed his ability to act on turf; off since last July but showed his well-being in the Rosebery at Kempton on his return last month.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); recent form run (25 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); outside draw (?)
Verdict: (28) looks sure to score on turf sooner rather than later, but perhaps not today against this opposition

Additional consistent horses:
Mazzuri 4-8-8 (92) Dr 3
20/1 Con 9# AB 21 Lto 270
Lto/ CB: 12 Oct ’18 List Stks (270 s) 10.5f AW Dun 12/1 2.75l 2/7 off 87 – 91*
chased leaders, 3rd halfway, ridden to close on outer 2f out, under pressure in 3rd over 1f out, kept on into 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner
Making first start for the Perrett yard having come over from Ireland where he was twice a winner over 9.5f at Gowran Park and runner-up in Listed company at Dundalk when last seen in October; has been sporting a visor since last July, but no headgear on today for his UK debut, which suggests he’s not expected to figure.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto; career best lto; down in class;
Minus: class (?); course (?); 194 days break; no headgear fitted;
Verdict: [28] looks as if he’s correctly priced for his UK debut and not expected to win today.
Al Jellaby 4-8-5 (89) Dr 10 N/R
12/1 Con 11# AB 58 Lto 280
Lto: 30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f gd Donc 15/2 3.25l 3/16 off 89 – 93
with leader, every chance 2f out, soon ridden, not quicken inside final furlong
CB/ 2nd Last: Cl 3 Hcap (70 d) 8f AW Ling 7/4 F 2l 5/10 off 89 – 95*
prominent, pressed leader after 2f, pushed along to challenge over 2f out, soon ridden, close 4th when hampered near finish
Won an 8f novice on final start as a 2yo, but failed to add to his tally as a 3yo; gelded last September and had a couple of outings on the AW in January; showed much promise when 3rd in the Spring Mile when returned to turf at Doncaster and noted that he sports a hood for the first time today.
Plus: class (F); going (F); recent form run (25 days);
Minus: distance; course;
Verdict: (14) yet to show form over this trip, but he may grow to it this term, a contender with a question then.

Of others, Lucius Tiberius proved below the calibre required for the O’Brien yard, although he did win a pair of fast ground hcaps over this trip last summer. Aimed somewhat higher on his debut for Appleby in France at the start of the month he may appreciate the drop back to this level of opposition. However, he has by no means been consistent of late and is thus ignored.

A race that 4yo have dominated in recent years winning 8 of the last 10 (5yo took the other two). Lower weights have been favoured the last few years too, although those higher in the handicap have also been known to win. In regard to the draw, stall 6 or lower have accounted for 7 of the last 10 winners, with the other three being drawn in double digits.

Putting all that together, I have to view Mildenberger as the class horse of the race and while he has to give weight to the field on his hcap debut, figures suggest that he has the ability to do it. Only Crossed Baton has recorded similar figures, but needs to find more on the pair’s Dante running. Desert Wind does have the potential to put up better figures than he has to date, but I’m not sure the outside stall will be of much help for a horse that likes to be up with the pace. Al Jellaby (N/R) lurking at the bottom of the handicap has potential too, if he can stay the trip. For me though it’s Mildenberger that has the most plus points, consistent, proven ability and dropping in class after recording a career best lto. The only question is in regard to fitness, but he’s won on his debut both seasons to date. Crossed Baton and perhaps Desert Wind may prove best of the rest.

[martinkil]

Timeform have - Desert Wind - at 125+ - three points clear of the field, but it's from it's AW runs which that rating derives.
My fancy would be the old boy - What About Carlos - 40-1 EW 1/5 odds first 4 with several bookies.

Finished 3rd in this in 2016 on debut on admittedly soft going off today's rating of 100. He was rated as high as 109 last year so is no back number. The biggest problem is the good - GF going - but on a course he loves at this price he's worth a small EW wager.

[martinkil]

They decided it was too fast for - What About Carlos - NR